Reading IGN's Live Blog of the Nintendo US Media Summit 2007, everyone seems to focus on the Brawl delay (to Feb 10), but there's a more interesting quote hidden there IMO:

Wii at (or very near to) 20 million by December 31st?

Didn't we know this already from Nintendo's last financial report, which stated the intent to ship 22.5m Wii's by March? That works out to about 20m Wii's by the new year, probably.

Still, it's nice to hear it again.

Haven't you guys heard? The Wii is doomed!

Adjusted your post to reflect reality at it stands for now.


This Christmas' sales should be very telling for the console industry though.

I don't know where IGN is getting their fugures, but Nintendo made that financial report when they believed they'd be able to increase Wii demand considerably.  As of a couple of weeks ago Nintendo said they've been having trouble improving manufacturing and there'd still be a shortage this Christmas.

as far as i know they didn't say they had trouble improving manufacturing, just that even with the increased supply they think it will sell out anyway. Nintendo isn't the type to completely miss their shipping goals, if they didn't think they could make it they would change it, and this ign blog is obvious further evidence that they are going to make it.

8 millon Wii's being available in November/December seems a bit far-fetched. Let's not forget that's right around the cornor. If this is true, I expect the Wii not to sell out. 8 millon is enough to meet the demand. However, I doubt that this is true.

There has only been very slightly increased supply world wide so far. The Wii is selling just over a million a month, as opposed to the expected 1.5m/month. Nintendo has stated that they'd delayed increasing supply a few times, however, and Reggie avoided the issue with the most recent statements suggesting that the problem was demand, not supply (although they're related issues).  This is quite the opposite of his previous statement that Wii supply will be "unprecedented" suggesting something changed.

Nintendo really dropped the ball with Wii supply so far. This is worse than Microsoft dropping the ball with Xbox 360 supply in its first 6 months. Microsoft may have had far, far less supply and and far less demand, but at least they got supply above demand levels after 6 months.

I would suggest that Nintendo will struggle to have 16 million sold at the end of this year because of its supply issues.  I don't see supply being significantly more than a million a month.  I hope Nintendo can prove me wrong so there won't be a lot of sad consumers and third parties this holiday (and a very happy Microsoft) but I doubt they will.

 Fixed your link

Thank you Oh Great Pantless one.