There are 5 games I'm watching on Wii that should be very telling for the prospects of 3rd party companies.
1) Guitar Hero 3
2) Manhunt 2
3) Nights
4) Soul Calibur Legends
5) King Story/De blob/ Zack & Wiki (abstract/niche titles)
I think Manhunt 2 is most important to companies like Capcom, Take Two, Konami who make big titles aimed at older audiences. Niche titles are important to Majesco, Atlus, Koei. Legends is important to companies like Square-Enix, Capcom, Namco, EA, etc - companies who want to know if decently made 'side' games will see in Japan or the West. Guitar Hero 3 sales will be indicative of where the huge casual ddr/karaoke/singstar PS2 audience is moving.
If all five of these types of title bomb, I think Wii is in quite a bit of trouble. But I expect Nights to do decent numbers in both the USA and Japan (100k to 300k in each), and I think Legends could approach 1 million units worldwide if it was recieved well (Soul Calibur 2 sold over a million copies on GC and PS2 - Wii seems to be tapping segments of both audiences). The niche titles should be hit and miss - good games will be fine sales wise I think (Trauma Center 2) while bad niche titles will fail worse than on other consoles. Manhunt 2 sales are going to be hard to guage since it won't be released worldwide (censorship issues) - but I think it could do RE4-Wii like numbers. That leaves Guitar Hero 3 for Wii. This is the most important test. I expect it to very very well (2.0 million+ worldwide) or to bomb (under 400k). If Guitar Hero does well, I think you'll see increased support from western developers for their more innovative titles, while the standard fare will continue to populate 360 and PS3 systems.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu