Basically, can PS3 beat Wii in total Japanese sales between now and the end of the year? The Slim and FFXIII will be powerful entities, but they'll run counter to the new Wii bundle, NSMBWii (which Japan seemed to favor over Galaxy, at least), and Wii Fit Plus, as well as Samurai Warriors 3 and Crystal Chronicles, Crystal Bearers. None can stand up to FFXIII on their own, but together...

Without any killer software, no. No GT 5 or FFXIII this year = not a chance imo.

A PS3 Slim + Final Fantasy XIII + Gran Turismo 5 would destroy everything, unfortunately it seems Gran Tursimo 5 won't be released until next year.

Wii (still) > PS3 > 360 in Japan

Slim will help sales... It won't kill the Wii...

ps3 will take the console lead for a good while.
sony have good year for japan.

What PS3 really needs in Japan is a title with long legs, that helps it to sell steadily during months, and the only game that comes to my mind is Gran Turismo 5.

Gran Turismo 5 is still probably coming this year, but apparently they always announced the mostly December date at TGS. Anyway, the major shopping period in Japan tends to come later, so yes, with price cut, XIII and GT 5 yes it can

I'm going to say no. Even if FFXIII and GT5 make it this year, New Super Maro Bros. Wii is going to outsell them. This, combined with a large variety of new software (Wii Fit+, Tales of Graces, Samurai Warriors 3, etc.) as well as recently released hits (WSR, MH3) with a possible counter by Nintendo wit specific bundles and/or new Wii colors will ensure that Wii will take charge of the Japanese holiday season.

Some folks are letting the whole slim and price cut give them dellusions of grandeur.

No just because of a price drop it won't do anything.