kber81 said: In December 2008 PS3 userbase will be much stronger.

 Not long ago, people said December 2007.

 I predict next year, people will say, December 2009.

Galaki said: kber81 said: In December 2008 PS3 userbase will be much stronger.  Not long ago, people said December 2007.  I predict next year, people will say, December 2009.

 

then by dec of 09 they will say dec 2010 and so on till they finaly realize that sony isnt selling. like ive said before no one cares about HD games or movies only sony fanboys do. 

but back on topic this game i figure will probably sell tons compared to what htey would ont eh ps3 cause of userbase in itself.  

I wouldn't say lie so much as less than honest. The only reason the lower development cost matters is because of the install base. If they were to spend 50 million to develop the game but made 100 million on the PS3 then clearly it would be worth it. The problem is they do not feel that the return on their development is guaranteed. Since the number crunchers tell them the likely hood of making a decent return on the investment is low, the cost is too high to develop the game for that system. I see the world in weird ways though.

Actually, there have been several reports published that have estimated the average cost of developing a PS3 game as being considerably higher than on the Wii. The Wii uses similar development tools to the Gamecube, requiring less transition time to learn the ins and outs of the hardware. The PS3 has a totally new kind of processor that is more complicated than the norm, and therefore requires a greater investment to properly utilize.

Gnizmo makes a good point as well, return on investment is a key factor in considering the cost of development.

GooseGaws said: Gnizmo makes a good point as well, return on investment is a key factor in considering the cost of development.

Definitely.  No developer out there is looking to turn out a game that won't make a profit.  Developers will go where the money is whether that comes from royalties, subsidies, or what not.

@kber81

Thats what rational posters do. They take the data presented to them, and interpret it in to an understanding. You on the other hand draw conclusions with no data to support them. There is a term for that called faith. Faith is a strong belief in something despite the presence of facts to the contrary, or the lack of proof.

Faith is not a substitute for rational deliberation. They also have by far the greater probability of being correct in their analysis. There is a rule in gambling which is very applicable to these discussions.

Bet with the numbers not with your gut. Those who bet with their gut lose their asses. Those who use mathematics are many fold more likely to win. Look at the professionals they have a fundamental understanding of probability. They know a good bet when they see one.

The one thing you should never do is behave like the rational posters are ignorant, or do not understand the situation. They understand it well enough to use data in their deliberations.

there are a few things going for this change for Capcom

First- they were one of the FEW third Party Devs to support the Gamecube, they already have experience with the Tools for the wii Controls as well

See RE4 Gamecube + Wii Versions for the Control Scheme

they also have an -Older-engine that works for the Wii REALLY well (peers at RE4 again)

they have experience with the Wii Controls
they have experience with the coding for the Wii (gamecube)
the costs associated for the ps3for development- i have heard -is 2 to 3x the cost for the wii... ie a Wii game can be made for ~5-7 million, an equivulant PS3 game will cost between 10 and 20 million.

Installed Base is Currently in japan is 3x wii to ps3 (3.7 to 1.2 million) and current rate is of sale is still over 2-1 in favor of the wii...

at this time NEXT year- unless the wii completely crashes- the install base STILL will be at least 3x wii to ps3.

so Capcom in japan is looking at it this way

3x installed base

ABOUT half to 3/4th the cost to make

to me that is a No Brainer.

game costs less to make for the same "quality of game" - not graphics, the GAME.
3x the potential buyers

= potential of Significantly more PROFIT for the company

lets say for the game to "break even" they need to sell 500k units for the PS3

at the same profit per unit, if the game cost 3/4 the price to make, they would have to sell 375k units to break even.

lets project the current sales to stay EXACTLY as they are right now and the game comes out 1 year from now

Wii installed base- japan ONLY- of 7.3 million
PS3 installed base of 2.4 million

375k/7.3mill= 5.2% attach rate ie 1 in 19 owners of the wii has to buy for them to break even

500k/2.4mill =20.8 attach rate. or just under 1 in 5 owners buying...

if i was an analyst - and i am not- which of those two scenarios is the more plausible to be beaten? a 1 in 5 buy rate or a 1 in 19?

to me it'd be the latter.

^Don't forget that Super Mario Galaxy, SSB:Brawl, WiiFit, No More Heroes, Project O, FF:CC and a lot of other great titles will raise the Japanese userbase significantly. The Wii has sold a whole year like crazy on virtually one game (WiiSports, since Zelda is not popular in Japan anymore). Now the big games roll in, including some JRPG's it should slowly work towards DS numbers.
I expect a Japanes userbase of around 10M when MH3 comes out.

just smiles----this is plain and simple...nintendo got a great product for the wii--one of many to come