In case people missed it, Satoru Iwata stated in Nintendo's June investor briefing that he believed New Super Mario Bros. Wii would hit 10 Million sold by the 31st of March 2010. Many have dismissed his claim as impossible but here we will learn that Nintendo have every right to believe that New Super Mario Bros. Wii will be HUGE!

The top 5 selling Wii titles:

Wii Sports

Wii Play

Wii Fit

Mario Kart Wii

Super Smash Bros. Brawl

You may notice something going on here.. The top four titles all have something in common; they all have Wii in their names, have all sold over 10 Million copies, may also have Mario in their name and 3/4 are multiplayer. The outlier in the top five is SSBB.. It hasn't reached 10 Million, does NOT have Wii in it's name and does NOT have Mario in it's name. So why is it so high up? Most likely the cause is the titles addictive multiplayer and the inclusion of many Nintendo characters including Mario.

So how does this relate to New Super Mario Bros. Wii?

- NSMBWii has Wii in it's name.

- NSMBWii has Mario in it's name.

- NSMBWii is multiplayer.

Obviously these facts 100% guarantee that NSMBWii will join the 10 Million Plus Club of Super System Sellers. However it doesn't guarantee 10 Million being sold in only a little over 4 months.. So is it possible?

Well as you can see below, the DS version of New Super Mario Bros sold around 5.5 Million copies in the same timeframe as the Wii version will have to sell 10 Million.

Also of particular note is the fact that the opening week slow sales in regions other than Japan:

What was the reason for these slow sales? Well the title was released in the middle of the year, not right in the middle of the holiday season. The total sales also tell us something quite important. That is even though first week was slower in the Americas and Others regions than in Japan, the total sales in these regions have ended up being higher than those in Japan. This means that the NSMB franchise has a higher potential fanbase in these regions and as NSMBWii is a sequel, it will most likely be more front loaded (in addition to the fact it's launching right before Christmas)

For a comparison, let us take a look at how Super Mario Galaxy faired in the lead up to christmas:

It's quite apparent here that the title had a far greater amount of sales in it's first couple of months on the market than New Super Mario Bros. did for DS. This title shows closer to 1/10th of its total lifetime sales being sold in it's first week where as NSMB for DS was closer to 1/20th. Super Mario Galaxy also had a faster rate of sales drop off which New Super Mario Bros. Wii won't see as much of for all the reasons I've stated above.

One last fact to consider is that these holidays will be the first that Wii is not supply constained and I expect to see Nintendo's marketing management team really try to drive demand to sell out the entire inventory along with titles like Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus and New Super Mario Bros. Wii.

My prediction for the title is as follows:

Week 1. 

Japan - 750k

Americas - 850k

Others - 600k 

TOTAL - 2.2 Million

Discuss!

A simple...

"Is a 2D Mario Platformer" Would have sufficed.

I'll give you this. You don't need any graphs for it. I know this for everyone from my generation who grew up with Mario from the beginning. Everyone who had the original Super Mario Bros. on the NES is going to buy this and play it with their kids. It's like a passing of the torch, and a reliving of your childhood in the same sitting. In other words, it's going to kill in sales.

its Mario

its Mario..c'mon..thats really the only answer...not sure y u wrote this...i never understand the point of these threads,because everyone of them are always about a super successful franchise that we already kno is gonna sell shit loads

no no no, you can play as toad. That is why.

I have played both 2D and 3D marios and I'll stick with the 2D marios any time because they are actually fun and challenging. Besides 2D marios are aimed to all kind of gamers not only fanboys.

And the sole fact that a 2D mario has returned to a videogame home console after almost 20 years is enough to celebrate.

Yes and also Viva La Mario Brothers! Viva La 2D Revolucion!!

This.

Mario got some kind of head jetpack is the reason, that is obvious, the only reason why is not selling 30 millions its because of Cammie Dunnaway being lame