@Mendo

That giant post of over-estimates you pointed out was just stupid. Over 90% of them were about GT5 and said that the game would touch 10million and your problem is that the game has only about 6.5M right now.

GT games sell over time. Everyone but you seems to know this. This thread was about LIFETIME SALES not sales up to August 1st, 2011. GT4 got to 10Million after like 3 years.

Well, that's the problem.

Whos is that?

I would think you should be the utmost last person to speak about honesty. Should I refer to when you claimed my GT5 figures were cherry picked and exaggerated, when i've proven they are not.

The evidence is simply other posters posts, any one can take the time to see the math is true.

How about when you said that you only saw 3 people estimate 11 million when I've just quoted 8 (or 9 depending on how you want to play it) . I think you just need to get over your double standards, in the least you shouldn't continually bump a topic to serve crow, especially since you're going to be on a 5 year diet of it. 

only 3 people predicted 11 million or higher, 2 of them said 11 million, the other 13. that is the only high bad prediction. and its still better than the 5.5 million predictions. 

note: my numbers come from averaging the posters guess, so if they said 9-11 million, i went with 10.

people who predicted 8 million or lower, had terrible guesses, and people who predicted over 11 million had terrible guesses. but guess what there were 11 people who guessed under 8, and only 1 person over 11. so which group had worse preictions the ones under 8 or the ones over 11. do the math

only 3 people predicted 11 million or higher, 2 of them said 11 million, the other 13. that is the only high bad prediction. and its still better than the 5.5 million predictions. 

note: my numbers come from averaging the posters guess, so if they said 9-11 million, i went with 10.

people who predicted 8 million or lower, had terrible guesses, and people who predicted over 11 million had terrible guesses. but guess what there were 11 people who guessed under 8, and only 1 person over 11. so which group had worse preictions the ones under 8 or the ones over 11. do the math

Your figures back me up though.

God of War 3 predictions (3.7m when we started so any 4m guess would have been over at the time)

I have 23, you have 26. So there must be 3 duplicates in there..

I count 18 for underestimates, assuming there are also 3 duplicates that's 23/15 split.

A little different from my original figures, I can only guess that the wires got crossed in totalling up and the differences were added to the wrong totals.

5 were within the realms of being correct.

So with the new totals

Overestimated/ Underestimated

Uncharted 2 = 18 / 29

God of War 3 = 23 / 15 *corrected

Gran Turismo 5 = 35 / 3 *** Corrected

Totals

Overestimated/ Underestimated

76/ 47

Final Result: 29 overestimated surplus

Thus with your figures and mine we  confirming "there were more underestimators then overestimaters" a lie. In fact it would take GoW hitting 5 million, UC2 hitting 6 million and GT5 hitting 9 million to break even on it. Just confirms theres way more crow to eat for the other guys.

lol this just sad now

You are wrong. I posted this earlier

The last one being the one I said depends on how you look at it.

You're clearly not understanding what these predictions were about. They are lifetime predictions. Therefore, you can not say a prediction was an overestimation, until sales have stopped (or at least reached a level where it is clear that reaching the prediction is not going to happen).

At this point in time, there are only 2 classifications for predictions: underestimated or undetermined. No prediction made so far has been an overestimation. If the number has not yet been reached, it is undetermined, because it may yet be reached. You only "eat crow" when you've been proven wrong. If I say "GT5 will sell 7 million by year's end", I don't "eat crow" everyday during 2011 that it hasn't reached 7 million. I either eat crow after 2011 (if GT5 misses), or someone who said that I was wrong will eat crow (if GT5 was to surpass the target).

Frankly, you can argue your case all you want, but you are definitely and definitively wrong, 100% incorrect at this point in time. If, in a few years time, when all these games have stopped selling, there are more people who overestimated than underestimated, you can come back to this thread and say you were right, that more people were too optimisic than pessimistic. But for now, it can only correctly be said who has underestimated, because we don't know if anyone has overestimated (as the figures may or may not reach their predictions).

i must have used 10.5 for the second.

the 3rd one say 9.5, but has good chance at 11 million, i believe i used 10.5 million on this one.

i must have missed vettemen.

scoobes said could reach 10 million (i believe this is the number i used), i dont know hat he meant by average of 11 million.

one guy said 13 million

last guy had average of 10 million.

so again only one person had a number of over 11 million, 3 to 6 said 11 million depending on how you look at it..

so again a lot more people predicted under 8 million than over 11 million.

and as for Uncharted and God of war you have no argument, people were horrible in their predictions

for uncharted overall 35/50 were to low and by the end of this year it will be 47/50 that are too low.

for GOW3 overall 28/50 were to low, and will be 36/50 by the end of this year.

and both these game had 24 or 25 out of 25 to low before they were released, only when people started seeing how they were selling did they revise or predict higher, which arent much of predictions when its after the fact.

the numbers are against you, and i dont understand the point of you arguing, other than you hate the ps3 (made apparrent by your post history)