It is for Japan but I meant compared to MH's numbers.

It's too early to tell if MH will have good legs or bad legs, and it's dumb to assume it won't have good legs because it's not on PSP.

The combined userbase in Japan for FF 13 is about 4 million.

If MH 3 breaks 1.5 million (or 2 if it shows fantastic legs) it will be tough for FF 13 to pass it.

Actually, the userbase is even smaller, because in Japan, FF13 is PS3 exclusive. So shed a million off of that number.

@Ph4nt: FFXIII is PS3 exclusive in Japan, so the userbase is 3.2~ million so far.

@Zuhyc: That was pretty stupid. A game on a franchise that got several iterations on PS2, that is now released for both PS2 and Wii (Wii for the first time) is obviously going to sell better on the PS2, since Gundam fans don't need to buy a new console for it, that's why sales of the Wii version will be very poor in comparison.

Second week :

Wii HW - 75k
MH3 - 300k

well if we want to be exact the userbase will be not far from 4 million by the time FF13 comes out in december.  Then there will be 100k or so people that buy the ps3 just because of FF13.  Still for me MH3 would only pass FF13 if MH3 was on the high end of what i'm thinking and FF13 is on the low end. 

Final Fantasy XIII doesn't seem to have much hype going at all in Japan yet. The preorders for it are barely in the top ten. It needs a release date before it will rise in preorders, and I'm sure it will do well but I don't think its inconceivable that FFXIII debuts to like 900k and gets to 1.3m lifetime in Japan, while MH3 debuts to almost 600k and could get to 1.3 lifetime.

See the line I bolded in my original post. As I said, I have no doubt that FFXIII will have a higher fist week sales numbers because the series is very front loaded in Japan. However, until we see the legs of MH3, saying FFXIII will out sell is foolhardy. MH3 may be front loaded on Wii or it may sell more like the PSP versions. We don't know yet. I'm taking a wait and see approach.

This isn't a worldwide sales discussion comparing how FFXIII and MH3. This is about how the two titles will sell in Japan. Given the different sales patterns of each franchises, A wait and see approach is warranted.

I read your post and it seems as though you did not read mine. As far as FFXIII hype goes we have not had any information about the game for some time and contrary to popular belief most game sales come from the casual crowd whom do not visit gaming forums. SE will need what? A month of solid advertising of the game and it will sell a huge amount no problem. If it does release this year no doubt the game will get its release date by TGS which is next month.

More than enough time to hype the game through the roof and looking at the development cycle of FFXIII SE will want it to sell very well in Japan. How much of an indication are pre-orders in terms of sales?

Anyway I have no doubt FFXIII would outsell MH3 first week and lifetime in Japan. One would have to be brave to bet against that. Also people would do very well to not use MH portable sales as an indication because MH3 does not have the main selling point of the portable titles. Personally don't even think MH3 will get a second shipment.

Yeah, because Wii games are famously front-loaded... RiGhT??!!??