What is the likelihood of a brand new company coming in and develop a great successful system?

My opinion is that it'll be either Nintendo or Microsoft. I don't think Sony will have the money needed next generation to keep up with them.

The 3DO.

i hope im surprised

Nintendo, but NOT because of momentum. Brand recognition doesn't do anything. Momentum didn't save the PS brand either.

I'm 88% sure that Sony and Microsoft won't have the guts to seriously invest in something what they believe to be casual/inferior/stupid. They are in their own little world of geekyness

If the other 12% happens, it is still Nintendo that has the most powerful financial rescources to be used in the console wars, and they can use them to eliminate a serious counterattack.

If this generation really lasts as long as two generations it could be anybodys is game. What if it's 2014 do we want the same stuff only better or do we want something new? What is the next best thing? And what will make a company win a generation? Please traditional gamers or motion gamers? Will you focus on a particular group or will you please a bit of both?

It all comes down to innovation Nintendo is great but Microsoft and Sony can also pull this off although they are a bit more defensive. Today we see more hardware produced for a casual market with their sensor. It could be useful for horror/thriller games. Microsoft has different motion controls, could be useful in call of duty for hand commands and their voicechip if really powerful and heavily supported with software could be very interesting with dialogue (RPG). Sony has a safe bet (only bigger and better) only problem, it's not their market. Eyetoy can't really make a difference trace your mood while gaming possibly. I guess that's also software based so Microsoft can also do this.

It's very hard to say. When everyone has the motion controls thrown in the game Sony seems the less innovative to me. While Nintendo goes for casual as a main market, Microsoft goes for a more expanded traditional market. Sony falls in between. I really think they have to make a choice. Sony will be one that is forced to innovate.

It's also interesting how the Wii gamers will develop. Will they stick with motion controls or are they going to upgrade to a traditional controller. It depends mostly on games. They will play fatal frame for example. They will like it and they want more... Searching for more horror games will eventually lead to an other console. RE5, Silent Hill, L4D 8), you name it.. it's a weak spot of Nintendo (this gen).

Next gen will support two different hardware types: traditional and motion. Especially Nintendo has a problem when all games have these wide optional controls. Their audience differs from the games they (third party) want to implement this. Only an addition in favour of traditional gamers will give them the edge and they have to prove this with their first party.

Other contenders are unlikely to win. It could be online distribution like Sony did with CD vs cartridges, it will be Blu-ray vs digital distribution. Third party developers will have to earn more for each game. Apple with their iGames store or Google with their 3d supported browser are probably the most likely new gaming solutions. Still not very likely, internet connection is still slow and some pretty neat games are already download only.

It depends on the future will there be ground breaking solution(s) or will it be just bigger and better. I believe that 3D is finally the next big step. I don't believe a higher resolution is the way to go. Both could happen 3D is a huge winner or loser while higher resolution is equal market share.

I have no idea and neither does anyone else I think. At this point it'd be only guessing as no one knows what we can expect or, hell, how this gen is going to end!

Let's hope we don't just see souped up versions of all three current consoles next generation.

Sega or Apple

Apple with the iConsole.