Very hard to say.
Nintendo will have the casual market, but both Sony and Microsoft could eat into that next year. They also have the momentum. They need to keep the "Wii" name or they wont do as well.
Microsoft have done REALLY well this gen, i personally dont think they will ever win a console gen... but it is highly possible. Natal could swing things in their direction but i personally doubt it. More money will be spent and they will have the biggest advertising campaigns.
Sony will have a point to prove, they wont make the same mistakes twice (HUGE console price and lack of advertising). The big exclusives will be out straight away, unlike this gen, and they will have decent sum of money to throw around for other exclusive stuff.
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