One comment about the "software support" argument that I see around when it comes to new games pushing hardware.
The proponents of such argument maybe are giving too much weight to a mechanism that worked well in the past with a very different audience from the extended Wii one. The extended audience does not generally dwell in internet forums, nor does it know about incoming titles or about motion control hardware improvements. I think that only niches of this new market will react to the new software/WM+ offering (golf lovers, for example)

When it comes to software, who exactly in the extended market that hasn't bought a Wii for WiiSport and WiiFit - that offered new experiences in front of their TV - will buy one for WSR? Or who hasn't bought one for SMG will buy one for NSMB?

It's a market that has been easily satisfied early on and can live forever on evergreen titles. The counter point to a market that has a low barrier of entrance, and is thus quick to adopt, is that it will likely be slower to expand even more when the offer of content increases, because it has less unfulfilled needs.
Or at least, this is what sounds sensible to my intuition, does this make sense to anyone who knows something about business?

Great post.

Catering to the mainstream audience is indeed a double-edged sword; they buy like no other but they are also more shifty than others. The fine line you'd have to walk between "core" and "casual" seems almost impossible to me and pleasing one might offset the other. Its not entirely that black and white but third parties have clearly shown which boat they want to be on (who can blame them, make games that cost basically nothing and make shitloads of cash, this kind of profitability is rarely found outside of the porn industry or drug dealing). Next gen, I believe that all three major console (and an eventual fourth, should Apple or some other tossers want to enter this already tough market) need to make a more definitive console with ditto software, swaying back and forth is difficult and you're caught between accolade and moneymaking. To me, Nintendo have always been a stamp of quality that almost no one else could even hold a candle to and their games always sell very well as well. One can only hope that 3rd parties will be able to apply this model eventually, that would seriously enhance the console's worth and appeal to me at least and I'm sure I'm not the only one.

It also occurrs to me that the very same people who laughed (rightfully so) at the prospect of software "saving" the PS3's hardware sales do believe that that very thing can help skyrocket Wii hardware. Odd logic, price definately plays a bigger role than games and if you add both you have a solid combo (with the 360's comeback fresh in mind).

It should be noted in this thread, however, that the Wii and its competition are faced with an unusual situation that no other console generation ever had to deal with; a massive economic setback and a new depression likened to that of the 30's (only worse). This is sure to wreak havoc on any models and predictions we might have had in the beginning of this gen (and to some extent, already has).

In the end, I think this gen will simply be a lot shorter than everyone initially assumed (me included).

There are plenty of people who will buy a Wii for New Super Mario Bros. Wii compared with Super Mario Galaxy because it's much more accessible and is multiplayer. Word of mouth will be much stronger too due to the multiplayer. Wii Sports Resort has a broader focus too, the marketing will be of sporting professionals and not families in the living room. People who want more realistic, precise controls and didn't like Wii Sports' simplicity will be drawn in by it.

Basically the expanded audience leans of new software by word of mouth and generally not the internet. What happens is the Wii sees a rise in the floor of sales, not a massive overnight explosion. It's all about slowly drawing in those 150 Million people waiting for the right software. Now I see what you mean that perhaps Nintendo should focus on new software experiences but I also think the best example to use would be Super Mario Galaxy 2. It's a core title that will be harder than the original, Nintendo are well aware that it's the core gamer that bought Galaxy and it will be core/casual that will buy NSMBWii. So why are they releasing a sequel to a core title? It's Miyamoto's wish obviously and easy money too but unless they plan on assaulting the core space with Metroid/Mario/Zelda next year, I don't see how it fits in with their business plan.

Hm let's see here... No notable HUGE releases yet. And when I say huge I'm talking about Hardware moving software. I expect monster hunter 3 to increases wii sales in japan for a short period of time. As for others and NA, I expect Wii Sports resort to Boost HW for a while longer than the effect of MH in Japan. Who knows... Maybe MH will save the Wii in JP for the rest of the year?

Few flaws, first NSMB is not SMG, totally different games, and NSMB has a much wider audience to appeal to, side scrolling Mario is more accessible and popular than 3D mario, similarly, WSR and Wii Fit plus will also have greater appeal over their predecessors, due to the wider range of activities.  In addition MH3, at least in Japan, will have an appeal to gamers who many not have seen the appeal from Wii Sports or Wii Fit, but are looking for games like MH, similarly Red Steel 2 will have a similar appeal to many who aren't really into Wii Sports but who will love the idea of a sword fighting game.

NSMB will sell a lot.

Well consider the little software support this year.