You have to remember that Wii has been at this same Price for 2.5 years ( i think its the only console without price cut after such a long time!) , Nintendo only recently have announced first official bundles (MH in JAPAN) so i think Wii still has a chance of improving its sales.

Im not saying that it will reach 2008 numbers again (it could in the future) but Price Cut, software and Colours can definately improve hadware sales (who are really good anyway, just not usual amazing kick-ass Wii Like)

Plus people should know the Power of New Mario Bros this game will move loads of HW over holidays.

@Ail, i kinda agree the release of DSi could have had some sort of impact on Wii sales, because both of those products target this same demographic.

so who's to say the Wii can't have a peak year in its 4th year like the Xbox360? And after a price cut like the 360? Also you can't underestimate the value of having enough stock this holiday season so there are no shortages. I think the Wii can have a MASSIVE holiday season this year.

I blame third parties.

But the Wii will shape up when the big titles comes.

Smash Bros, Mario Kart and Wii Fit were released last year and the effect this three games had made that level of sales possible. This year the key games are arriving a bit later, so the sales will pick up during the 2nd half of the year. During this holidays, the supply of Wiis is going to be much bigger now that Nintendo can actually save an inventary, so I expect holiday sales, maybe even combined with new colors, bundles and a price drop to help Wii sales get closer or even match the 2008 numbers.

And also people seem to be forgetting that comment Pachter makes all the time. Last gen 80% of the consoles were sold when they were $299 or lower. Obviously that number is not going to hold during this gen but it will likely be very close, as we have seen with the bump the 360 had since its price cut.

No it hasn't peaked, first off there has been little software for the Wii in a while, secondly even at this point its price remains the same as at launch, probably one of the longest stretches in history, and it has no colors, no Nitnendo has a long way to go before the Wii peaks. First we need to see how the black Wii, combined with WSR, MH3, Wii Fit plus and NSMB Wii perform in Japan.

so is this: the wii is the only console that hasnt had a price cut yet

if you disregard that, then apparently the 360 and ps3 peaked years ago

Has it peaked? Maybe, maybe not.

Its hard to determine as we're looking at sales for a very short period of time. The rest of the year it has the possibility that it can close the gap, although the likelyhood of that is getting smaller and smaller if the sales don't increase sooner rather than later.

Is it lagging from last year? It seems to be, however, the wii has a lot of options at its disposal. Price, colours, and most importantly games seem to be coming out that can reinvigorate its sales.

On an other note, what is the sales of past generations 3rd year sales historically speaking? Were the PS2/PS1/SNES 3rd year sales comparable to the Wii 3rd year sales both in numbers and growth year of year? (Comparing leading consoles of their respective generation) I'm just wondering if there is a pattern to when most console sales peak...

Most consoles peak at around the 100-150 price point, and most consoles reach that price point faster than the Wii has

I don't think Wii will sell as much ths year as it did last year but I don't believe it has peaked just yet. I think 2010 will show sales higher than 2008 with a huge boost in momentum coming out of the holidays with Wii Sports Resort still selling strong, Wii Fit Plus replacing Wii Fit and also selling to owners of the original, New Super Mario Bros. Wii becoming Mario Kart Wii's replacement and a huge amount of exclusive (Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games, Dead Space, Spyborgs, Red Steel 2) and non-exclusive (Guitar Hero 5, The Beatles: Rockband, Need for Speed: Nitro) titles pushing the console to greater heights.

Next year will also push momentum with core games like Sin and Punishment 2 and No More Heroes 2 and casual titles like Endless Ocean 2 will continue to push the console. Mario Galaxy 2 will do more for software sales than hardware but Metroid: Other M and Wii Vitality will push hardware a little more.

I think 2010 will be bigger than 2008 but 2009 is a bad transition year that has been condemned due to a bad second half of 2008 compounded by an equally bad first half of 2009.