The, please do analyse anything ever again. It just won't work out.
You are completly biased. I mean, you know the result before you do your Analysis. That's just wrong. You should have an analaysis to get a unknown result.
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Okay, there were some people talking about Xbox Live not being profitable. How much might it be to run a service like Xbox Live? 6 months ago, MS announced that 17 million gamers are using Xbox Live. That is quite a number. And we have heard, that there are up to 60% gold members. That would be 10.2 million, but let's say 10 million, just because it is easier to calculate with. The Xbox Live membership is 50USD / year (I know you can get those cheaper).
10 million * 50 = 500,000,000 million USD (therefore, all gold-members have to use the yearly subscription, which is not the case. The 1 or 3 months subscriptions are more expensive, but I will ignore this. And there are different currencies we have to consider. The XBL subscription is 50€ in Europe, that would be 70 USD. So the actual revenue should be significantly bigger than 500 million!)
And there is Xbox Live Arcade. Accordign to VGC-sales, the weekly revenue for Arcade was something like 2 million. That would be another 104,000,000 USD revenue. BUT keep in mind that those sales are ONLY denoted in USD. Again, currencies, mainly from European countries, will push this number up a bit, but I won't include this either.
There is VoD. MS stated that 2/3 of all the paid downloads are due to VoD. We do not have any hard data for this, but it will be easily something like 300,000,000 USD. Especially now since the VoD-offer got so much bigger. This service is available in 10 new countries and there will be 1080p streaming. So 300,000,000 is a very careful guess.
There is DLC. GTA IV, Fable II, Fallout 3, Banjo Kazooie, Guitar Hero, Rockband, Lips, Skate II, Resident Evil 5, Call of Duty WaW... almost every major release in the past 9 months has seen its DLC. GTA IV The Lost and Damned was downloaded more than 1 million times, creatin a revenue bigger than 25 million USD (Again - CURRENCY!) So MY GUESS is, that the revenue for DLC on the Xbox360 last year was like 80 - 100 million USD
There you have it. The yearly revenue on Xbox Live must be crazy.
1,000,000,000.00 USD revenue on and for Xbox Live is easily possible.