I'm just saying that a lot of companies like Activision Blizzard and EA are working on building franchises on HD consoles because of the high development costs and risks on such platforms.  What happens to the companies like Sega that come into the next generation with a bunch of hardcore titles that have sold 200,000-400,000 a piece?  They'll be competing in many genres with existing HD franchises that will be on their second or third iteration or more.

Some people seem to think that putting dollars into a hardcore Wii game is the same as putting them in a hardcore HD game.  I think there's a crucial difference in that there's a better chance of building a franchise that will last into the next generation with the hardcore HD game.  How many hardcore third-party Wii games have been released that will be able to hold their own and be profitable in future HD console generations? 

It's survival of the fittest right now on HD platforms and I think those companies escaping it now on the Wii will have it even worse next generation.  They will not only have to compete on a HD platform but also against the companies that have survived and become even more lean and mean thanks to this generation.

What happens?  I'll give it a shot.

The consoles will all probably be close in power next generation, so we will see a lot of ports.  That means we will see a lot of franchises ported to a Nintendo console for the first time.  These games will not be seen as franchises with long, wonderful histories though.  They will be seen more like new IPs since they never bothered to build an audience on Nintendo consoles in the first place.  They won't sell as well as their counterparts on other consoles because of this.  Third parties will whine that only Nintendo games sell on Nintendo consoles, when in fact, it is their own fault for not growing these franchises on Nintendo consoles in the first place.

So, how did I do?

I think you're severely underestimating the legs of these Sega hardcore games. While Madworld will probably sell in between 200 - 400 thousand,  the others (HOTD 1 and Overkill, Conduit) will either sail past those numbers in the future, or have already.

PS2 hardcore franchises made the jump just fine to the XBox360 and PS3. I really see no reason why already profitable, and well liked games can't also make the transition from Wii to WiiHD.

seems like he's saying that they barely made any money off of madworld. Does this give us a better estimate as to how much the game costs to develop?

Why are some people talking about HD and Wii games as if they're light-years apart? Sure, the Wii is MUCH cheaper to develop on, but the types of games available on all 3 systems are pretty much the same. It's not like we're comparing an 8-bit Combat on the Atari 2600 to the NES at its prime with Super Mario Bros 3. Those consoles were technically 1 generation apart (even though the Atari released in 1977 I think), but the games on the NES were light-years ahead of what the 2600 could ever hope to achieve. People are saying that the Wii games are graphically one generation behind the HD consoles, but the gameplay and types of games available are very similar. Except for the HD graphics, the consoles offer 'roughly' the same type of experience, but with motion control on the Wii. I don't see the big differentiator being fancy graphics.

Shenmue!

Or Streets of Rage.

Everyone is talking about the big difference in graphics not because it changes the experience but because it greatly changes the costs to develop a game.  A few developers have already stated that if they make the same game on Wii & HD consoles, it costs about 3 times more to develop it on the HD consoles due to the graphics.

This. Look at how these early Wii releases with initial mediocre sales did over the long run... both are very slowly nearing a million at this point, and will probably reach that goal, even if it takes another year.

Monster 4x4: World Circuit (Wii) http://www.vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=3828®ion=All

GT Pro Series (Wii) http://www.vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=916®ion=All

Edit before it's mentioned: Both the above titles are shovelware, and do not deserve the legs they've had. However, both are still readily available in stores and still sell. This is probably because Nintendo has yet to do a budget line, and these look might good to unsuspecting buyers who don't do research, especially since one comes with a (poor quality) steering wheel....

arsenal009,

Thanks for clarifying. I actually understand and agree that the cheap development costs for the Wii are a huge boon. My comments were directed at those people who naively think that simply because a series is available only on the "low-def" Wii that those IP's won't be able to be easily translated to the high-def platforms in the next generation. The whole idea is ludicrous. He was implying that it's much more difficult to add improved graphics than to develop a solid game mechanic.

Links.  From actual devs please, not CEOs claiming low dev costs on average, which includes shovelware.