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Forums - Sales - Pachter: Xbox 360 will fall to 3rd place this gen

Carl2291 said:
Zizzla_Rachet said:
Xoj said:
RayRay102 said:
binary solo said:
Why do people think NATAL will bring any significant boost to sales? Especially a boost to further the 360 lead over PS3? The PS3 and 360 motion controls, while technologically different, will to all intents and purposes be functionally identical. Because it will be a niche product for both 360 and PS3 at least until 720 and PS4 come fully integrated the best profitability for 3rd parties will be to develop multiplat titles. I wouldn't be surprised to know that Sony and MS colluded to a limited extent to ensure their respective motion capture technologies were sufficiently compatible to allow for multiplat 3rd party games. MS already knew that Sony would base it's technology around the PSeye.

Neither 360 nor PS3 motion capture will be game breakers this gen. MS ain't gonna sell 30 million NATALs to existing 360 owners. Nintendo have already sold 50 million wiimotes, but they aren't gonna sell 50 million motion+s to existing Wii owners. Sony haven't sold 22 million PSeyes yet, and they won't after the wand is released.

 

Because Microsoft will market and hype the living heck out of it to soccer moms, gradparents,.....that is something Sony just can't match.

I am sorry, but with the protential of the 3 Triple Threat blockbusters in NATAL, GeOW3, and Halo Reach....what can Sony counter with?

 

 

God Of war 3, Gran turismo 5, Killzone 2 (since we are talking of unannounced games), twisted metal, etc etc.

 

in terms for exclusive ps3 have quality and quantity, having tons of good studios helps.

there is always going to be games for it consoles :).

Yes We all know that GT5 is Sony's endgame....And God Of War 3 should be fantastic

But KillZone 2?

First of all the game is already and has yet to sell 1 mill copies in a single region...And i'm sure your gonna hit me with the Quality stint....But the fact is that only a niche part of PS3 owners are playing these big Sony exclusive....

Infact.....For PS3 exclusive in NA only one game sold over a mill at retail with out bundles.....

Sony has alot more than console sales to worry about when it comes to the PS3...And saying that the games have quality when the sales are what they are...is worst than having bad games that sell badly....

Actually, in the past 18 months... PS3 has had more sales on quality (80+ rating) exclusive games than the 360 has.

AND PS3 has had a better attach rate. So i dont think they should be worrying too much about the software side of things.

This thread, although locked now... shows you this http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=78380

If those games in the past year and a half can't beat the combined sales of Gears 2 and Halo 3 sales (Past 18 months) Then I don't want to hear it...

The system has a smaller userbase and sells at a slower rate...mathemathically it would seem that the attach rate is higher...But why is Activision saying other wise?

 



 



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@ Carl

 

According to U.S. figures provided by the NPD Group, which partners with retailers and publishers to track videogame sales, only one title out of Sony's new properties has broken a million units: the original Resistance: Fall of Man, at 1.1 million units as of April 2009. (The data provided by the NPD Group does not include units of software bundled with hardware.)

 

 

 

 



 



@ Carl some more

 

For example, one of the key games at Sony's E3 2009 press conference was Uncharted 2: Among Thieves, yet the original game itself isn't close to breaking the 750,000 unit mark in the United States. According to Jack Tretton, CEO of SCEA, Uncharted has sold more than 2.6 million copies worldwide, however many of those are copies bundled with PS3 systems (which are not counted here), not software directly off store shelves.

One could also look at Resistance 2 which has sold less than 750,000 units in six months on the market, to a userbase of 6 to 7 million owners. For a game promoted as the latest and best on the platform, opening month sales of 385,000 units seems exceptionally weak.

We could, for example, compare to Gears of War on the Xbox 360. The original Gears of War, exclusive to the Xbox 360, racked up a cool million units in its first month on a userbase of only 2.9 million users. By the end of the second month, December 2006, sales were over 1.8 million units.

The sequel, Gears of War 2, launched with sales of 1.56 million units in its first month to an audience of 12.4 million users. By the end of its second month, December 2008, it hit the 2.3 million mark. For both Gears of War and its sequel, sales were far stronger than Sony managed with Resistance and its sequel, even when taking the relative sizes of the userbases into account.

We could also look at a multiplatform action game sequel on the PS3 like Call of Duty: World at War, which just happens to have launched around the same time as Resistance 2. World at War sold over 1.1 million units during the last two months of 2008 while Sony's shooter moved just over 500,000 units.



 



1 thing to say...

Why are you focusing on America only?
Or did i miss something earlier in the thread?



                            

Carl2291 said:
1 thing to say...

Why are you focusing on America only?
Or did i miss something earlier in the thread?

The sales for some of those games are even worst outside america.....

And

Becuase I live In america?



 



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Current gap PS3 to X360 : -8 million

2009: X360 11 million, PS3 12 million - gap: -7 million in the end of year

2010: X360 10 million, PS3 15 million - gap: -2 million (X360 selling well thanks to Natal launch in Nov)

2011: X360 9 million, PS3 15 million - gap: 4 million in PS3's favor

I don't predict the above outcome, Im just playing around with Patcher's prediction. Note that it has the total worldwide gap becoming +4 mill in PS3's favor because he says the two consoles are equal in the West, but the PS3 lead will surely be at least 4 million in Japan by end of 2011.

I can only say that it's another Crazzy prediction by Patcher.



Zizzla_Rachet said:
Carl2291 said:
1 thing to say...

Why are you focusing on America only?
Or did i miss something earlier in the thread?

The sales for some of those games are even worst outside america.....

And

Becuase I live In america?

So only America matters?

Also, its a thread what states how MS could end up losing, because of Japan?



                            

Carl2291 said:
Zizzla_Rachet said:
Carl2291 said:
1 thing to say...

Why are you focusing on America only?
Or did i miss something earlier in the thread?

The sales for some of those games are even worst outside america.....

And

Becuase I live In america?

So only America matters?

Also, its a thread what states how MS could end up losing, because of Japan?

I don't see how Japan benifits the PS3 right now....Maybe after FF and GT

Now...No...Wii just picked up again and has 5 mill gap wise already...

It's easy for people like patcher to say Wii will be first...But it's a bold thing to say PS3 will over take 360 between now and 2015...First he is giving his prediction to much room



 



I half agree! Japan is huge numbers that xbox just wont be able to tap into!

However the danage has been done now sony will find next gen impossible with support from people like square, capcom increasing even more!!

Everyone has now sat up and taken ms seriouse! Anyone who has seen the difference between xbox and 360 will now realise how important this is!

The xbox IS the best console on the market this is refected in the media all the time!

Sony will drop the price will it nake a difference? Probablu but not greatly against and even cheaper xbox! Sony at present is desperate with the ps3 its hurting the company badly and they cant afford it! The ps3 USED to bring in buckets of money an now it isnt! This is the opersite for MS. All of sonys predictions and development spending will be in shatters! This will effect its ability to progress in the next gen... I think this was evident with that crap half hearted motion wand compared to natal that can be the will and add to the existing controle pad!



I love the everyone should be considered winners. Sounds like what a freaking preschool teacher would say to some fat kid that finished last in a race. Sony losing shitload of money at the start of the generation and market share = winner I suppose? Sony might make most or all of its money back but I highly doubt that they ever expected this outlook.