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Forums - Sales - Is It Worth Developing For PS3? - Bruce on Games to Investors

cura on 23 June 2009
gebx said:
kitler53 said:
gebx said:
Rainbird said:
gebx said:
Dgc1808 said:
It's impossible to make money on PS3 without 4M+ plus sales. PS3 is doomed.

 

http://vgchartz.com/games/index.php?&results=50&name=&console=PS3&keyword=&publisher=14&genre=&order=Sales&boxart=Both&showdeleted=®ion=All&alphasort=

Out of the 30 or so games published by Activision for the PS3, only ONE game passed 4 million, the next drops to 1.9 million

The average game on the PS3 if you take out GH and COD sells about 250,000 copies. It would actually be a GOOD business move for Activision to drop every game PS3 game, other than CoD and GH which do make them money.

And like so many other things in life, that list needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

On that list, there are 27 titles which have been released, and we have data for. Nine of those are movie tie-ins, two are history channel games  and Prototype has only just been released.

Fishing and hunting games don't do very well on either PS3 or the 360, as opposed to on the Wii, and many of those games sold lowly on the 360 as well. Quake Wars, Fracture and SCORE International BAJA for example.

I'm not saying that some of these titles don't "undersell" on the PS3, like Tony Hawk Project 8, but if Activision want to make more money off the PS3, my suggestion would be to produce better games.

 

Your argument falls when comparing sales to other consoles, the Activision CEO states "rate of attachment" is the problem.

Let's compare multiplatform releases for an accurate comparisson (So no CoD2, GH2, etc which all sold millions on the 360)

 

Xbox 360
PS3
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare

Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
Activision  7.49
Activision  4.35





Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock

Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock
RedOctane  4.23
RedOctane  1.88





Lego Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures
Lego Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures
LucasArts  3.36
LucasArts  0.56





Kung Fu Panda

Kung Fu Panda
Activision  2.95
Activision  0.37





Marvel: Ultimate Alliance

Marvel: Ultimate Alliance
Activision  2.45
Activision  0.29





Call of Duty 3

Call of Duty 3
Activision  2.31
Activision  0.67





Guitar Hero: World Tour

Guitar Hero: World Tour
Activision  2
Activision  1.21





007: Quantum of Solace

007: Quantum of Solace
Activision  0.94
Activision  0.67





Guitar Hero: Aerosmith

Guitar Hero: Aerosmith
Activision  0.86
Activision  0.52





Transformers: The Game

Transformers: The Game
Activision  0.74
Activision  0.27





Spider-Man 3 

Spider-Man 3 
Activision  0.74
Activision  0.27





Tony Hawk's Project 8

Tony Hawk's Project 8
Activision  0.67
Activision  0.17





Tony Hawk's Proving Ground

Tony Hawk's Proving Ground
Activision  0.45
Activision  0.31





Enemy Territory: Quake Wars

Enemy Territory: Quake Wars
Activision  0.36
Activision  0.28





X-Men Origins: Wolverine - Uncaged Edition
X-Men Origins: Wolverine - Uncaged Edition
Activision Blizzard  0.32
Activision Blizzard  0.29





Spider-Man: Web of Shadows

Spider-Man: Web of Shadows
Activision  0.29
Activision  0.15





[Prototype]

[Prototype]
Activision  0.29
Activision  0.17





World Series of Poker: Tournament of Champions World Series of Poker 2008: Battle for the Bracelets
Activision  0.16
Activision  0.05





Soldier of Fortune: Payback

Soldier of Fortune: Payback
Activision  0.14
Activision  0.06





Cabela's Dangerous Hunts 2009

Cabela's Dangerous Hunts 2009
Activision  0.12
Activision  0.06





Fracture

Fracture
LucasArts  0.11
LucasArts  0.05





History Channel Civil War: Secret Missions
History Channel Civil War: Secret Missions
Activision  0.08
Activision  0.06





Monsters vs. Aliens

Monsters vs. Aliens
Activision  0.05
Activision  0.04





SCORE International Baja 1000

SCORE International Baja 1000: The Official Game
Activision  0.01
Activision  0.01

 

Total 360 Copies - 31.12 million (360 Attach Rate = 1.01), 1.30 million average sold per game
Total PS3 Copies - 12.76 (PS3 Attach Rate = 0.56), 0.53 million average sold per game

* Note - Reminder that these numbers only account for multiplatform releases to compare the PS3 to its competitor

 

@ Username2023

I'm guessing your comment about PS3 software selling better was not referring to Activison games? You'll see none of these games outsold the 360 (well maybe Baja 1000 since they look tied :) )

Xbox 360
PS3
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
Activision  7.49 20th Jun 09 Activision  4.35 20th Jun 09







Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock
Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock
RedOctane  4.23 20th Jun 09 RedOctane  1.88 20th Jun 09







Lego Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures Lego Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures
LucasArts  3.36 20th Jun 09 LucasArts  0.56 20th Jun 09







Kung Fu Panda

Kung Fu Panda
Activision  2.95 10th Jun 08 Activision  0.37 10th Jun 08







Marvel: Ultimate Alliance
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance
Activision  2.45 20th Jun 09 Activision  0.29 20th Jun 09







Call of Duty 3

Call of Duty 3
Activision  2.31 12th Apr 08 Activision  0.67 20th Jun 09







Guitar Hero: World Tour
Guitar Hero: World Tour
Activision  2 16th Apr 09 Activision  1.21 20th Jun 09







007: Quantum of Solace
007: Quantum of Solace
Activision  0.94 24th Mar 09 Activision  0.67 20th Jun 09







Guitar Hero: Aerosmith
Guitar Hero: Aerosmith
Activision  0.86 20th Jun 09 Activision  0.52 20th Jun 09







Transformers: The Game
Transformers: The Game
Activision  0.74 21st Jun 09 Activision  0.27 20th Jun 09







Spider-Man 3 

Spider-Man 3 
Activision  0.74 20th Jun 09 Activision  0.27 20th Jun 09







Tony Hawk's Project 8
Tony Hawk's Project 8
Activision  0.67 16th Jun 09 Activision  0.17 20th Jun 09







Tony Hawk's Proving Ground
Tony Hawk's Proving Ground
Activision  0.45 18th Oct 08 Activision  0.31 20th Jun 09







Enemy Territory: Quake Wars
Enemy Territory: Quake Wars
Activision  0.36 12th May 08 Activision  0.28 12th May 08







X-Men Origins: Wolverine - Uncaged Edition X-Men Origins: Wolverine - Uncaged Edition
Activision Blizzard  0.32 20th Jun 09 Activision Blizzard  0.29 20th Jun 09







Spider-Man: Web of Shadows
Spider-Man: Web of Shadows
Activision  0.29 20th Jun 09 Activision  0.15 20th Jun 09







[Prototype]

[Prototype]
Activision  0.29 20th Jun 09 Activision  0.17 20th Jun 09







World Series of Poker: Tournament of Champions World Series of Poker 2008: Battle for the Bracelets
Activision  0.16 06th Jul 07 Activision  0.05 20th Jun 09







Soldier of Fortune: Payback
Soldier of Fortune: Payback
Activision  0.14 20th Nov 07 Activision  0.06 20th Jun 09







Cabela's Dangerous Hunts 2009
Cabela's Dangerous Hunts 2009
Activision  0.12 13th Oct 08 Activision  0.06 20th Jun 09







Fracture


Fracture

LucasArts  0.11 20th Jun 09 LucasArts  0.05 20th Jun 09







History Channel Civil War: Secret Missions History Channel Civil War: Secret Missions
Activision  0.08 04th Oct 08 Activision  0.06 04th Oct 08







Monsters vs. Aliens

Monsters vs. Aliens
Activision  0.05 26th Jan 09 Activision  0.04 18th Jan 09







SCORE International Baja 1000
SCORE International Baja 1000: The Official Game
Activision  0.01 26th May 09 Activision  0.01 21st Jan 09

7.54 million - that is the amount of lead the 360 got just from lego indiana, kung fu panda, and marvel: ultimate alliance...3 games that are bundeled into 360s. 

41.1% - the percent of the difference between the 360 and the ps3 in terms of software due to the games the are bundeled into 360 console sales but not bundeled into ps3s.

seriously?!?! do you think these numbers are that great when 3 of the top 5 360 games are heavily bundeled and the 360 has an extra year worth of sales (which makes a huge difference on really old games like CoD 3).

 

Moot point... even if we took out those numbers (31.12 million - 7.54 million = 23.58 m), the 360 number ends up being almost double the PS3 number and the attach rate is 0.77(360) vs. 0.53(PS3).


Your argument doesn't prove anything, it still shows Activision titles struggling on the PS3.

um, .77 isn't almost double .53 lol...

The way I see it, 1.01 vs .56 and .77 vs .53 tell two different stories. Sure xbox 360 still > ps3 but the difference has been greatly reduced, especially when adding in the fact that the ps3 is a younger console (i.e. call of duty 3 was released around the launch of the ps3 and so will obviously have much higher sales on the 360).

Anyway, with the exception of a few games...that is one atrocious list of games. Maybe if the reduced the quantity and increased the quality of their games I'd actually care.



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mibuokami on 23 June 2009
welshbloke said:
If you need X sales to turn a profit and a game cost Y to produce and the difference between the two is either a loss or a small profit you would be justified in considering redeploying your resource.

I do not know the figures but the general feeling is bar a very small bunch of titles Activision have probably not made much money from supporting the PS3.

Whether this results in a price cut early or a reduction in royalties is probably here not there but for the threat to work it has to appear real. I think most people have choosen to feel that it is not real but I am not so certain.

Just look at any game that are recently release by Activision, X-Men, Prototype, the sale ratio in general is around 3:2 (360 > PS3)

Bottom line is, multiplat game share a hell-of-a-lot of resources such as art, sound effect, animation, mo-cap etc etc. Application of coding certainly will increase the cost, but do you honestly think that cost cannot be recouped by an extra 50-70% increase in sale?

Multiplat game are more profitable than exclusives, why else do you think all third party publishers are still making all their game (even the crappy movie tie-ins) on the PS3 as well as the X360? If the inevitably result is always a reduction in overall profit, the PS3 would be getting nothing.




Kantor on 23 June 2009

PS3 is doomed!

 

I have a graph, and that makes me right.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

gebx on 23 June 2009
cura said:
gebx said:
kitler53 said:

7.54 million - that is the amount of lead the 360 got just from lego indiana, kung fu panda, and marvel: ultimate alliance...3 games that are bundeled into 360s. 

41.1% - the percent of the difference between the 360 and the ps3 in terms of software due to the games the are bundeled into 360 console sales but not bundeled into ps3s.

seriously?!?! do you think these numbers are that great when 3 of the top 5 360 games are heavily bundeled and the 360 has an extra year worth of sales (which makes a huge difference on really old games like CoD 3).

 

Moot point... even if we took out those numbers (31.12 million - 7.54 million = 23.58 m), the 360 number ends up being almost double the PS3 number and the attach rate is 0.77(360) vs. 0.53(PS3).


Your argument doesn't prove anything, it still shows Activision titles struggling on the PS3.

um, .77 isn't almost double .53 lol...

The way I see it, 1.01 vs .56 and .77 vs .53 tell two different stories. Sure xbox 360 still > ps3 but the difference has been greatly reduced, especially when adding in the fact that the ps3 is a younger console (i.e. call of duty 3 was released around the launch of the ps3 and so will obviously have much higher sales on the 360).

Anyway, with the exception of a few games...that is one atrocious list of games. Maybe if the reduced the quantity and increased the quality of their games I'd actually care.

 

no.. 23.58 million is almost double 12.76 million

The attachement rate is directly related to the userbase, so it doesn't matter if the PS3 userbase is smaller. (Activision mentioned attachement rate as their complaint)

For every 100 PS3's, Activision sells 56 games
For every 100 360's, Activision sells 77 games (that's not counting bundle games, CoD 2, GH2, etc)

That's 69% more copies on one console

 



Proud Member of GAIBoWS (Gamers Against Irrational Bans of Weezy & Squilliam)

                   

famousringo on 23 June 2009
Kantor said:

PS3 is doomed!

 

I have a graph, and that makes me right.

When you make a graph like that, you're supposed to make one of the other consoles turn into a vertical line, go back in time while amassing greater sales, or turn into a smiley face laughing at Sony.

Good effort, though.



"The worst part about these reviews is they are [subjective]--and their scores often depend on how drunk you got the media at a Street Fighter event."  — Mona Hamilton, Capcom Senior VP of Marketing
*Image indefinitely borrowed from BrainBoxLtd without his consent.

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Samus Aran on 23 June 2009
Dallinor said:

As always Gebx, my heart lights up to see your threads, as I know instinctively that they're bound to be filled to the brim with fantastic new PS3 news.

This articles existance is based on Bobby Koticks comments. He wants his business to earn more money, which can be achieved by more gamers owing consoles, which in turn can be acheived by Sony dropping the price.

A man who is disscussing how to earn more money is not going to realistically then turn around and drop support for a platform, ergo limiting the amount of potential customers.

Hollow threat is hollow.


So, you base your assumption without knowing how much money they make with ps3 games, for all we know it's a very small profit that's not worth it, ergo you fail.

 

Hollow assumption is hollow.

 

Ps: I'm not saying that they don't make a lot of money with ps3 games, but the possibility is there that the profit ain't big and there for it wouldn't be smart to invest in the ps3. It's useless to call this threat hollow and it's also useless to call it realistic because we know nothing. Only activision knows.



heruamon on 23 June 2009

The PS3 is doing great, and I hope it continues to perform EXACTLY like it's been doing on this tend line...everything is fine, and the Kotick doesn't really understand the market place, since...you...he's got like 2 games franchises...he "really" can't take credit for the blizzard stuff. Oh...and I have a bridge to sell in Brooklyn...for cheap.



"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."

- From By Schism Rent Asunder

Zizzla_Rachet on 23 June 2009
Kantor said:
Mmhmm.

So to sum up, games are expensive, niche is bad, Sony is failing, now to quote a random bluff by Activision, famous for Call of Duty, Guitar Hero and...and...........

PS3 only gets 360 ports, and they still cost money.

To sum up further: LOLZPS3IZDOOMED!

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yo_john117 on 23 June 2009
Kantor said:

PS3 is doomed!

 

I have a graph, and that makes me right.

Lmao!  



mibuokami on 23 June 2009
gebx said:
cura said:
gebx said:
kitler53 said:

7.54 million - that is the amount of lead the 360 got just from lego indiana, kung fu panda, and marvel: ultimate alliance...3 games that are bundeled into 360s. 

41.1% - the percent of the difference between the 360 and the ps3 in terms of software due to the games the are bundeled into 360 console sales but not bundeled into ps3s.

seriously?!?! do you think these numbers are that great when 3 of the top 5 360 games are heavily bundeled and the 360 has an extra year worth of sales (which makes a huge difference on really old games like CoD 3).

 

Moot point... even if we took out those numbers (31.12 million - 7.54 million = 23.58 m), the 360 number ends up being almost double the PS3 number and the attach rate is 0.77(360) vs. 0.53(PS3).


Your argument doesn't prove anything, it still shows Activision titles struggling on the PS3.

um, .77 isn't almost double .53 lol...

The way I see it, 1.01 vs .56 and .77 vs .53 tell two different stories. Sure xbox 360 still > ps3 but the difference has been greatly reduced, especially when adding in the fact that the ps3 is a younger console (i.e. call of duty 3 was released around the launch of the ps3 and so will obviously have much higher sales on the 360).

Anyway, with the exception of a few games...that is one atrocious list of games. Maybe if the reduced the quantity and increased the quality of their games I'd actually care.

 

no.. 23.58 million is almost double 12.76 million

The attachement rate is directly related to the userbase, so it doesn't matter if the PS3 userbase is smaller. (Activision mentioned attachement rate as their complaint)

For every 100 PS3's, Activision sells 56 games
For every 100 360's, Activision sells 77 games (that's not counting bundle games, CoD 2, GH2, etc)

That's 69% more copies on one console

 

Perhaps you should look at recent sale trend rather than ineffecient data from when the PS3 was first launched? Pick any none GT/CD game recently release for both the 360 and PS3 from Activision, now compare their sale figure... now tell me if its substantially more profitable to support the 360 exclusively in today's market?