Squilliam said: Peripheral support is a complicated thing. I really can't say at this point what they intend to do and how they intend to implement Natal and even more so whether we will see entirely new hardware or just a refresh of the current Xbox 360 come 2010. However I do think they could support both an Xbox 360 and an Xbox 360+ console at the same time should they so choose. Every game disc has about 1GB of space locked away from developers which could be unlocked to allow developers to support both consoles. Since the architectures would likely be extremely similar the costs imposed on developers would not be of terrible concern as an updated Xbox 360 SKU could feed off higher end PC development on Direct X 11+ and possibly in a way provide an easier transition to a next generation by taking hardware leaps in stages rather than at once. Nintendo uses this method with their handhelds all the time, its quite a proven method really.

It's indeed hard to say what they do with the peripheral - if there ever will be one. It would clear things a lot, if we'd know what strategy M$ is planning to use with Natal. If it's supposed to be a peripheral, we'll see similar strategy that has been used with Eyetoy, Balance Board, and lots of other stuff and it could be bundled. If it is incremental upgrade, a new system with a launch is required for the thing to get as wide support as possible. Judging by E3, M$ marketed it as incremental upgrade, so i'm looking it from that direction. And frankly, 360 is a little too far into the generation for it to be possible to pull incremental upgrade through in the same fashion Sony pulled Dualshock through a decade ago.

The type of upgrade we're talking about, could be seen in handhelds only with DSL -> DSi. Judging by the success of DS(L), it's too early to say how Nintendo manages with the upgrade. However, it's different with handhelds, since when you buy a new system, old one goes to a family member, when home consoles are rather obsolete after getting replaced.

Steroid said: The Wii still sells like hotcakes, so no new Wii is coming out. PS3 and 360 are already more powerful then the Wii. A PS4 or X-Box 720 with spec upgrades are unnecessary when the current console you have out is already 2 or 3 times as powerful as the market leader. Natal and PS3mote bundles are substantially more likely then either Sony or MS dropping more billions on a whole new console.

Bundles don't actually help if what's bundled isn't wanted by the public. In order to make the controller wanted, it needs games. In order for it to get games, it needs to be wanted. Which eventually leads us to a point, where the controller need to the default controller, and that requires new system launch.

bdbdbd said: Squilliam said: Peripheral support is a complicated thing. I really can't say at this point what they intend to do and how they intend to implement Natal and even more so whether we will see entirely new hardware or just a refresh of the current Xbox 360 come 2010. However I do think they could support both an Xbox 360 and an Xbox 360+ console at the same time should they so choose. Every game disc has about 1GB of space locked away from developers which could be unlocked to allow developers to support both consoles. Since the architectures would likely be extremely similar the costs imposed on developers would not be of terrible concern as an updated Xbox 360 SKU could feed off higher end PC development on Direct X 11+ and possibly in a way provide an easier transition to a next generation by taking hardware leaps in stages rather than at once. Nintendo uses this method with their handhelds all the time, its quite a proven method really. It's indeed hard to say what they do with the peripheral - if there ever will be one. It would clear things a lot, if we'd know what strategy M$ is planning to use with Natal. If it's supposed to be a peripheral, we'll see similar strategy that has been used with Eyetoy, Balance Board, and lots of other stuff and it could be bundled. If it is incremental upgrade, a new system with a launch is required for the thing to get as wide support as possible. Judging by E3, M$ marketed it as incremental upgrade, so i'm looking it from that direction. And frankly, 360 is a little too far into the generation for it to be possible to pull incremental upgrade through in the same fashion Sony pulled Dualshock through a decade ago. The type of upgrade we're talking about, could be seen in handhelds only with DSL -> DSi. Judging by the success of DS(L), it's too early to say how Nintendo manages with the upgrade. However, it's different with handhelds, since when you buy a new system, old one goes to a family member, when home consoles are rather obsolete after getting replaced.

They are far enough into the generation, going on 5 years to pull off a relaunch. The Wii came between 4.5-5 years after the Gamecube and that was a very successful relaunch/rethink with upgraded hardware. I have really thought of the camera system that was shown for Natal as a way for many of 45M+ Xbox 360 users at the time of launch to upgrade to the current camera specification if they so chose without having to pay $2-300 for upgraded hardware. The software developers could really hit the deck running with the launch of a new console from Microsoft so long as the architecture is similar to the current generation. Probably the closer parellel with this would be the Gameboy -> Gameboy Colour transition. They can easily release new hardware and slowly transition support over 2-3 years to the new console without causing hardship to the older userbase.

Chairman-Mao said: I'd delay the PS4 to 2013 or even 2014 if I was Sony. If Sony releases the PS4 too early it could kill any chance the PS3 has to make any money. I'd rather see a re-designed PS3 like a slim and maybe some other colours than a PS4. In 2010 Sony can officially stop supporting the PS2 and focus all resources on the PS3 because the 10 year plan will be done. They can work on cutting manufacturing costs, putting out good games, and making some money off of the PS3 so it isn't a total waste.

They have to somewhat follow (or even lead) the competition in terms of launch date. It's not like the PS brand is high enough that they can just sit on the PS3 if newer consoles from Nintendo/MS pop up.

IMO, without exclusive support from 3rd parties (which Sony would have to buy a lot of) a late launch would doom the PS4 to failure.

 

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NJ5 said: They have to somewhat follow (or even lead) the competition in terms of launch date. It's not like the PS brand is high enough that they can just sit on the PS3 if newer consoles from Nintendo/MS pop up. IMO, without exclusive support from 3rd parties (which Sony would have to buy a lot of) a late launch would doom the PS4 to failure.

OR go completely out of synch with MS and Ninty. PS3 will have a massive install base compared to X720 and Wii2 at launch, it will still be actively producing good titles, and it woun't have reached market saturation. If the PS3 price point is below the prices of the 720 and Wii2, but still technically close to them (particularly Wii2), then they will retain 3rd party multi-plat support, look at thte number of PS2 multiplat titles still coming out. Then look to release the PS4 when technical superiority over the PS3 still allows a good entry price for the PS4 (starting price $399?), comparable to the 720. I'd suggest 2 1/2 years after 720.

Third parties will be well into the swing of PS3 development and still capable of producing quality product for some time to come. If 720 is going to be a quantum leap above 360 it will take quite some time for the 3rd parties to get to the level where they are making products that are beyond PS360 capability. It's really only when 3rd parties start ditching PS3 because of technical limitations that Sony will need to be ready to hit the market with PS4

You can either look at it as Sony wanting to get out from under MS's/Ninty's shadow(s). Or wanting to shake these companies off their coattail, but releasing on a time period where they are the only new console will give them some clear air.

My console cycle is about 6 years, and 2-3 years after release. So since I'm buying my PS3 next month I'd be looking for Sony to release PS4 in about 2013 or 2014 for me to buy in 2015/16.

I also wonder what a short generation interval will do for Wii2. If the pundits are right and much of the Wii sales are in the casual, WiiFit demographic, can this demographic be relied upon to upgrade to Wii2? I have a hunch this dempgraphic isn't the technoslave that so-called "core" gamers are. So too short a time frame between Wii and Wii2 may not be so good for that console, many of the WiiFit generation may be happy to carry on with their Wii and balance board and not migrate to a console with features they have no significant interest in. These people will already have HD players for their movies, and won't be playing games that demand the most intricate graphical, or sophisticated game play quality, so how does HD capable and bigger HDD attract those punters? Ninty will need to have some casual tech that blows their current casual tech out of the water to attract the WiiFit generation over to them. Can they do it?

binary solo said: NJ5 said: They have to somewhat follow (or even lead) the competition in terms of launch date. It's not like the PS brand is high enough that they can just sit on the PS3 if newer consoles from Nintendo/MS pop up. IMO, without exclusive support from 3rd parties (which Sony would have to buy a lot of) a late launch would doom the PS4 to failure.   OR go completely out of synch with MS and Ninty. PS3 will have a massive install base compared to X720 and Wii2 at launch, it will still be actively producing good titles, and it woun't have reached market saturation. If the PS3 price point is below the prices of the 720 and Wii2, but still technically close to them (particularly Wii2), then they will retain 3rd party multi-plat support, look at thte number of PS2 multiplat titles still coming out. Then look to release the PS4 when technical superiority over the PS3 still allows a good entry price for the PS4 (starting price $399?), comparable to the 720. I'd suggest 2 1/2 years after 720. Third parties will be well into the swing of PS3 development and still capable of producing quality product for some time to come. If 720 is going to be a quantum leap above 360 it will take quite some time for the 3rd parties to get to the level where they are making products that are beyond PS360 capability. It's really only when 3rd parties start ditching PS3 because of technical limitations that Sony will need to be ready to hit the market with PS4 You can either look at it as Sony wanting to get out from under MS's/Ninty's shadow(s). Or wanting to shake these companies off their coattail, but releasing on a time period where they are the only new console will give them some clear air. My console cycle is about 6 years, and 2-3 years after release. So since I'm buying my PS3 next month I'd be looking for Sony to release PS4 in about 2013 or 2014 for me to buy in 2015/16. I also wonder what a short generation interval will do for Wii2. If the pundits are right and much of the Wii sales are in the casual, WiiFit demographic, can this demographic be relied upon to upgrade to Wii2? I have a hunch this dempgraphic isn't the technoslave that so-called "core" gamers are. So too short a time frame between Wii and Wii2 may not be so good for that console, many of the WiiFit generation may be happy to carry on with their Wii and balance board and not migrate to a console with features they have no significant interest in. These people will already have HD players for their movies, and won't be playing games that demand the most intricate graphical, or sophisticated game play quality, so how does HD capable and bigger HDD attract those punters? Ninty will need to have some casual tech that blows their current casual tech out of the water to attract the WiiFit generation over to them. Can they do it?

The PS3 is an expensive system now and for its relative performance it will always be more expensive than the Xbox 360 and the ratio will split further against the PS3 when compared to a next generation system. It uses a lot of custom technology like the Cell and XD ram, it uses a lot of older technology like the RSX and GDDR3 and it has the fixed cost of a mechanical HDD which will always be with the system. There will never be a time where someone can say 'AHA the PS3 is cheaper' because it will always be possible to produce a next generation system which is both quite a bit cheaper and faster than the PS3.

For a console manufacturer building a newer system today they will have access to higher density, faster ram at lower cost, faster optical drives, a GPU which is more efficient per mm^2 than the RSX and they could do away with a mechanical HDD and simply use Flash as a storage option. It would be pretty hard to make a cheap system that was less than twice as powerful as the PS3 for less than $50 cheaper to manufacture at any time starting from today.

 

binary solo said: NJ5 said: They have to somewhat follow (or even lead) the competition in terms of launch date. It's not like the PS brand is high enough that they can just sit on the PS3 if newer consoles from Nintendo/MS pop up. IMO, without exclusive support from 3rd parties (which Sony would have to buy a lot of) a late launch would doom the PS4 to failure.   OR go completely out of synch with MS and Ninty. PS3 will have a massive install base compared to X720 and Wii2 at launch, it will still be actively producing good titles, and it woun't have reached market saturation. If the PS3 price point is below the prices of the 720 and Wii2, but still technically close to them (particularly Wii2), then they will retain 3rd party multi-plat support, look at thte number of PS2 multiplat titles still coming out. Then look to release the PS4 when technical superiority over the PS3 still allows a good entry price for the PS4 (starting price $399?), comparable to the 720. I'd suggest 2 1/2 years after 720. Third parties will be well into the swing of PS3 development and still capable of producing quality product for some time to come. If 720 is going to be a quantum leap above 360 it will take quite some time for the 3rd parties to get to the level where they are making products that are beyond PS360 capability. It's really only when 3rd parties start ditching PS3 because of technical limitations that Sony will need to be ready to hit the market with PS4 You can either look at it as Sony wanting to get out from under MS's/Ninty's shadow(s). Or wanting to shake these companies off their coattail, but releasing on a time period where they are the only new console will give them some clear air. My console cycle is about 6 years, and 2-3 years after release. So since I'm buying my PS3 next month I'd be looking for Sony to release PS4 in about 2013 or 2014 for me to buy in 2015/16. I also wonder what a short generation interval will do for Wii2. If the pundits are right and much of the Wii sales are in the casual, WiiFit demographic, can this demographic be relied upon to upgrade to Wii2? I have a hunch this dempgraphic isn't the technoslave that so-called "core" gamers are. So too short a time frame between Wii and Wii2 may not be so good for that console, many of the WiiFit generation may be happy to carry on with their Wii and balance board and not migrate to a console with features they have no significant interest in. These people will already have HD players for their movies, and won't be playing games that demand the most intricate graphical, or sophisticated game play quality, so how does HD capable and bigger HDD attract those punters? Ninty will need to have some casual tech that blows their current casual tech out of the water to attract the WiiFit generation over to them. Can they do it?

The Xbox 720 will probably have 1-2 GB of memory and a DX 11 GPU, it will be hard to port games from that to the PS3 without downgrading them quite a lot.

The Wii / Wii 2 doesn't matter that much in this case, as developers are treating PS3/360 almost entirely separately from the Wii in terms of game development. The only thing that could happen is, if the next Wii has similar controls to the PS wand (i.e. similar to the current Wii), it would probably be easy to port between Wii 2 and PS3 with motion controls. But is that what the PS3 userbase is after?

From the user perspective, there could be some advantages in releasing out of synch... but Sony has to handle developer relationships as well, and I think that strategy would be hard with developers.

Regarding the lieftime of the Wii, I think Nintendo will hold on to it as long as possible. They have the brand power now, and developers are starting to warm up to the Wii, so Nintendo has less balls to juggle than Sony.

 

Any harder to port games from the HD twins to the Wii or PS2? Possibly easier.

binary solo said: Any harder to port games from the HD twins to the Wii or PS2? Possibly easier.

But the PS3 userbase cares more about graphics, so it's possible a lot of them would upgrade to the 720, leaving Sony fighting for scraps.

 

@Squilliam: You seem to be somewhat in line with me, if GC to Wii related to the point you were making. The key is, that i'm thinking M$ is making a system, which games can't be played with 360. One of the reasons for this is what you mentioned: if they release a new SKU, it's too close to the next gen system and it pisses everyone.
Looking at how much M$ gained by being first one out this gen, i would think M$ wants to use that advantage again. If they put out a new console, that has something that resembles their Natal project, they could be betting to even getting some momentum.

@Binary solo: It will not be hardware that makes people want to change from Wii, it will be the software. You obviously have a mindset, that the new audience wouldn't be similar gamers with the rest. They too, just as well as the core audience, play games, get bored to them, want more games of the kind and want different kind of games. Nothing also guarantees, that the current 360 or PS3 gamers upgrade to 720 or PS4.