No PS4! (What are the chances)!

[NJ5]

binary solo said:

NJ5 said:

They have to somewhat follow (or even lead) the competition in terms of launch date. It's not like the PS brand is high enough that they can just sit on the PS3 if newer consoles from Nintendo/MS pop up.

IMO, without exclusive support from 3rd parties (which Sony would have to buy a lot of) a late launch would doom the PS4 to failure.

 

OR go completely out of synch with MS and Ninty. PS3 will have a massive install base compared to X720 and Wii2 at launch, it will still be actively producing good titles, and it woun't have reached market saturation. If the PS3 price point is below the prices of the 720 and Wii2, but still technically close to them (particularly Wii2), then they will retain 3rd party multi-plat support, look at thte number of PS2 multiplat titles still coming out. Then look to release the PS4 when technical superiority over the PS3 still allows a good entry price for the PS4 (starting price $399?), comparable to the 720. I'd suggest 2 1/2 years after 720.

Third parties will be well into the swing of PS3 development and still capable of producing quality product for some time to come. If 720 is going to be a quantum leap above 360 it will take quite some time for the 3rd parties to get to the level where they are making products that are beyond PS360 capability. It's really only when 3rd parties start ditching PS3 because of technical limitations that Sony will need to be ready to hit the market with PS4

You can either look at it as Sony wanting to get out from under MS's/Ninty's shadow(s). Or wanting to shake these companies off their coattail, but releasing on a time period where they are the only new console will give them some clear air.

My console cycle is about 6 years, and 2-3 years after release. So since I'm buying my PS3 next month I'd be looking for Sony to release PS4 in about 2013 or 2014 for me to buy in 2015/16.

I also wonder what a short generation interval will do for Wii2. If the pundits are right and much of the Wii sales are in the casual, WiiFit demographic, can this demographic be relied upon to upgrade to Wii2? I have a hunch this dempgraphic isn't the technoslave that so-called "core" gamers are. So too short a time frame between Wii and Wii2 may not be so good for that console, many of the WiiFit generation may be happy to carry on with their Wii and balance board and not migrate to a console with features they have no significant interest in. These people will already have HD players for their movies, and won't be playing games that demand the most intricate graphical, or sophisticated game play quality, so how does HD capable and bigger HDD attract those punters? Ninty will need to have some casual tech that blows their current casual tech out of the water to attract the WiiFit generation over to them. Can they do it?

The Xbox 720 will probably have 1-2 GB of memory and a DX 11 GPU, it will be hard to port games from that to the PS3 without downgrading them quite a lot.

The Wii / Wii 2 doesn't matter that much in this case, as developers are treating PS3/360 almost entirely separately from the Wii in terms of game development. The only thing that could happen is, if the next Wii has similar controls to the PS wand (i.e. similar to the current Wii), it would probably be easy to port between Wii 2 and PS3 with motion controls. But is that what the PS3 userbase is after?

From the user perspective, there could be some advantages in releasing out of synch... but Sony has to handle developer relationships as well, and I think that strategy would be hard with developers.

Regarding the lieftime of the Wii, I think Nintendo will hold on to it as long as possible. They have the brand power now, and developers are starting to warm up to the Wii, so Nintendo has less balls to juggle than Sony.