binary solo said:
OR go completely out of synch with MS and Ninty. PS3 will have a massive install base compared to X720 and Wii2 at launch, it will still be actively producing good titles, and it woun't have reached market saturation. If the PS3 price point is below the prices of the 720 and Wii2, but still technically close to them (particularly Wii2), then they will retain 3rd party multi-plat support, look at thte number of PS2 multiplat titles still coming out. Then look to release the PS4 when technical superiority over the PS3 still allows a good entry price for the PS4 (starting price $399?), comparable to the 720. I'd suggest 2 1/2 years after 720. Third parties will be well into the swing of PS3 development and still capable of producing quality product for some time to come. If 720 is going to be a quantum leap above 360 it will take quite some time for the 3rd parties to get to the level where they are making products that are beyond PS360 capability. It's really only when 3rd parties start ditching PS3 because of technical limitations that Sony will need to be ready to hit the market with PS4 You can either look at it as Sony wanting to get out from under MS's/Ninty's shadow(s). Or wanting to shake these companies off their coattail, but releasing on a time period where they are the only new console will give them some clear air. My console cycle is about 6 years, and 2-3 years after release. So since I'm buying my PS3 next month I'd be looking for Sony to release PS4 in about 2013 or 2014 for me to buy in 2015/16. I also wonder what a short generation interval will do for Wii2. If the pundits are right and much of the Wii sales are in the casual, WiiFit demographic, can this demographic be relied upon to upgrade to Wii2? I have a hunch this dempgraphic isn't the technoslave that so-called "core" gamers are. So too short a time frame between Wii and Wii2 may not be so good for that console, many of the WiiFit generation may be happy to carry on with their Wii and balance board and not migrate to a console with features they have no significant interest in. These people will already have HD players for their movies, and won't be playing games that demand the most intricate graphical, or sophisticated game play quality, so how does HD capable and bigger HDD attract those punters? Ninty will need to have some casual tech that blows their current casual tech out of the water to attract the WiiFit generation over to them. Can they do it? |
The PS3 is an expensive system now and for its relative performance it will always be more expensive than the Xbox 360 and the ratio will split further against the PS3 when compared to a next generation system. It uses a lot of custom technology like the Cell and XD ram, it uses a lot of older technology like the RSX and GDDR3 and it has the fixed cost of a mechanical HDD which will always be with the system. There will never be a time where someone can say 'AHA the PS3 is cheaper' because it will always be possible to produce a next generation system which is both quite a bit cheaper and faster than the PS3.
For a console manufacturer building a newer system today they will have access to higher density, faster ram at lower cost, faster optical drives, a GPU which is more efficient per mm^2 than the RSX and they could do away with a mechanical HDD and simply use Flash as a storage option. It would be pretty hard to make a cheap system that was less than twice as powerful as the PS3 for less than $50 cheaper to manufacture at any time starting from today.
Tease.
