2D Mario games are huuuuuuuge in Japan.

The 3D ones are hits but not like the 2D ones are.

Looking at the games slated to release for both the Wii and PS3, I view a greater potential boost for the PS3. (in terms of percentage to what is selling right now)

That is because if you look at the Wii games, won't most people who want to play NSMB, Wii Fit and Wii Sports Resort already own a Wii? Then that leaves Tales of Graces, which could see a small boost, but that is mitigated somewhat because of people who bought a Wii for ToS:DotNw. Then we're left with MH3, which to me should cause the biggest boost of any of the aforementioned. But looking at the predictions TheSource made of 1st week sales for MH3, it's not looking like the popularity of MH on PSP will translate equally to the Wii. However, it should still provide a very nice boost. I actually think if MH3 wasn't be released, I would give the nod to Sony for the year. But that is irrelevant since it is coming.

Now with the PS3, you have FFXIII and maybe GT5, which are both mitigated by by a Demo and Prologue, but I think those mitigation's are comparatively smaller then the Wii ones. I think there is a greater opportunity for growth potential with the PS3 games, especially with FF. Then there are the smaller/moderate releases like Tekken 6, ToV, EoE, Trinity Universe etc. that should provide decent boosts as well.

I'm not saying the PS3 will outsell the Wii, but I do think the potential is there. (albeit still very unlikely) Although the rate of sold to previously sold will obviously be superior on the PS3, but that would be a shallow "victory" for Sony.

I agree somewhat with what you´re saying, however I could see New Super Mario Bros Wii being something of a systemseller if there are people playing it on DS buying a Wii (I think there are some DS players that do not own a Wii) also it´s not certain that FFXIII or GT5 will release this year. I think the biggest chance for Sony  matching Wiisales  thisyear in Japan would be if the slimversion is released and is a huge hit, but I think that they would need a big softwarerelease to go along with that, otherwise I think the slimversion will only cause a temporarily bump.

From everything I can tell, FFXIII should drop this year in Japan, although GT5 isn't for certain. (which is why put maybe in my first post) If GT5 doesn't release, then most of what I said goes out the window, as that would definitely guarantee the Wii takes the cake.

As for NSMB, I do see it kind of as a wildcard, in these sense that it's a little harder in telling exactly how many systems will it push. You would have to think most self-respecitng Mario fans would have a Wii by now with the release of Galaxy, Smash Bros, Olympics and Kart. This of course leaves the 2D-Platformer market that don't already have a Wii and I'm not exactly sure how many of those there are. (could be a few hundred - thousand, could be a couple million) But is always interesting to see how games make the jump from handheld to the console. NSMB and MH3 will provide two that are pretty interesting.

As for a PS3 slim, that would depend on when it is released and at what price. If it releases in the Fall and is $100 cheaper, I see a big boost. If it releases near the end of 2009 with a negligible price-cut, the effect wouldn't really last.

The site also has a quite interesting set of numbers of the weeks after April 20th, this summer could represente a boost for Nintendo with Wii Sports resort and Monster Hunter 3, but they need something big for this holidays. (And honestly I don't think New Super Mario Bros'll be that big)


You don't think NSMB wii will be huge. Is this because you don't want it to be?
NSMB DS was big in Japan and it is more popular then the 3D Mario games

Stats is the first person to bring up the real issue - not which game(s) will sell more, but which game will push more consoles out the door. NSMBW will almost certainly sell more copies, but I think FFXIII will almost certainly push more PS3s out the door.

Either way, a lot of both consoles will be sold in Japan this holiday season....

It will of course come down to sustainability

I think the release of FFXIII will provide the biggest week of system sales of the year for the PS3 and bigger then anything the Wii will have. But that will mean diddely if the PS3 is back below 10,000 after 3 weeks. It will depend on whether or not these releases of FFXIII, Tekken 6, GT5 etc. will finally be enough for the PS3 to permanently raise it's average sales on a long-term week-to-week basis. So that people will think "look at all those PS3 games, now i need to own one", as it is clear their current catalogue isn't doing that for very many people. You may have people thinking "I wanna play MGS4, Yakuza 3, Hot Shots Golf and RE5, but I don't wanna buy a PS3 just for those...but throw in GT5, Tekken 6 and FFXIII, then I'll buy a PS3"

only if sony don't cut the price and sony have tons  flow of games for 2009 and 2010 after FF13 we won't see 10k for long while.

right now sony its matching the wii even and twice the price in japan.

PS3 has more big titles announced so far for the future in Japan. It's been a long time since some company announced a big Wii game, and honestly, if devs don't start announcing games for the Wii, there's no way Wii will start selling better all of a sudden.

Such low numbers.