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epicurean said:
Stats is the first person to bring up the real issue - not which game(s) will sell more, but which game will push more consoles out the door. NSMBW will almost certainly sell more copies, but I think FFXIII will almost certainly push more PS3s out the door.

Either way, a lot of both consoles will be sold in Japan this holiday season....

It will of course come down to sustainability

I think the release of FFXIII will provide the biggest week of system sales of the year for the PS3 and bigger then anything the Wii will have. But that will mean diddely if the PS3 is back below 10,000 after 3 weeks. It will depend on whether or not these releases of FFXIII, Tekken 6, GT5 etc. will finally be enough for the PS3 to permanently raise it's average sales on a long-term week-to-week basis. So that people will think "look at all those PS3 games, now i need to own one", as it is clear their current catalogue isn't doing that for very many people. You may have people thinking "I wanna play MGS4, Yakuza 3, Hot Shots Golf and RE5, but I don't wanna buy a PS3 just for those...but throw in GT5, Tekken 6 and FFXIII, then I'll buy a PS3"