But the Wii iz doomz?

Well done Nintendo and your little white box of joy.

You would think there would be more disscussion on something this big..

Go Wii! Sales should be great this year and next year. Wii Sports Resort w/ WM+, NSMB Wii, and Wii Fit Plus this year, among other games. Super Mario Galaxy 2, Metroid, among others for next year. I think the price may drop in Q4 2010. Maybe. If not, then probably Q2 or Q3 2011. Black Wii will definitely be out by Q4 2010.

To be honest I expect the Wii to keep selling well into next generation. Why? because next generation Sony will launch its new PSWii controller and Microsoft will bring us Natal in a big way. Nintendo will probubly introduce a new WiiMote or innovate some more giving us something else new. Leaving the Wii as a cheap alternative to all of the next gen consoles.

Say Nintendo cuts the price in 2011 to 199.99$ then in 2012 cut it again to 99.99$. The Wii will continue to sell to non-gamers. Nintendo can ditch all of their first party support or at least ditch all but the WiiSports/WiiPlay/WiiFit teams. In 2011 cut the price of the balance board and WiiFit to about 59.99$ cut the prices of their first party catalogue to a Best Of Collection like they have in the past.

Once at 99.99$ Nintendo can turn to highly lucrative markets like selling to hospitals, rehab facilities. Marketing the console to senior homes and senior citizens. With a cheap 99.99$ price tag the Wii will sell to all those casual gamers who weren't willing to shell out 279.99$ Because if you think about it a second Nintendo is currently still missing half their market share, the lower class families and seniors and soccer mom's. Once Nintendo cuts the price to a reasonable level like 99.99$ or maybe even the PS2's 129.99$ it will sell like a brand new console.

Lastly Nintendo could sell off all their dev kits at a cheaper cost and make liscensing easier for smaller developers. Once the next generation gets hear game development costs are going to sky rocket. Small developers and publishers are going to turn to the Wii to sell copies and to push their line ups. If Nintendo gives smaller developers easier access to the market then on the new three consoles it will sky rocket. How many WiiFit knock offs and WiiSports knock offs and party games will we see. All of them will sell to the casual lower class. A market Nintendo is currently neglecting but will tap into next generation when they lower the Wii's price!

I expect the Wii to survive ten+ years if Nintendo maintains hardware support.

10+ years is insanely optimistic, but I hope you're right. Sony always righteously proclaims that they develop their platforms for a 10 year lifecycle (even though they release a new system every 5-6 years like everyone else), so I don't think it's entirely in the realm of fantasy. The PS2 is an abnormality though. It wouldn't have survived this long if the Wii (with it's SD graphics) hadn't become immensely popular. If it would've been hardly to port Wii games to the PS2, I think the PS2 sales would've fallen off a cliff a long time ago.