To be honest I expect the Wii to keep selling well into next generation. Why? because next generation Sony will launch its new PSWii controller and Microsoft will bring us Natal in a big way. Nintendo will probubly introduce a new WiiMote or innovate some more giving us something else new. Leaving the Wii as a cheap alternative to all of the next gen consoles.
Say Nintendo cuts the price in 2011 to 199.99$ then in 2012 cut it again to 99.99$. The Wii will continue to sell to non-gamers. Nintendo can ditch all of their first party support or at least ditch all but the WiiSports/WiiPlay/WiiFit teams. In 2011 cut the price of the balance board and WiiFit to about 59.99$ cut the prices of their first party catalogue to a Best Of Collection like they have in the past.
Once at 99.99$ Nintendo can turn to highly lucrative markets like selling to hospitals, rehab facilities. Marketing the console to senior homes and senior citizens. With a cheap 99.99$ price tag the Wii will sell to all those casual gamers who weren't willing to shell out 279.99$ Because if you think about it a second Nintendo is currently still missing half their market share, the lower class families and seniors and soccer mom's. Once Nintendo cuts the price to a reasonable level like 99.99$ or maybe even the PS2's 129.99$ it will sell like a brand new console.
Lastly Nintendo could sell off all their dev kits at a cheaper cost and make liscensing easier for smaller developers. Once the next generation gets hear game development costs are going to sky rocket. Small developers and publishers are going to turn to the Wii to sell copies and to push their line ups. If Nintendo gives smaller developers easier access to the market then on the new three consoles it will sky rocket. How many WiiFit knock offs and WiiSports knock offs and party games will we see. All of them will sell to the casual lower class. A market Nintendo is currently neglecting but will tap into next generation when they lower the Wii's price!
I expect the Wii to survive ten+ years if Nintendo maintains hardware support.
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
