Mario Galaxy will be huge, one of my mates works in a game shop and they all had their yearly bash thing 1 week or so ago and he's an avid pc gamer but the staff got to play a selected part of mario glaxy and he said it's absolutley amazing, he even says he's gonna get a wii for this game alone, reckons when the gravity pulls you through the centre of the small planets and spits you out of the other side the rumble and speaker really makes the game atmospheric.

Says he's already trying to book his holidays in for when that game gets released cos he reckons the shop will be manic. Thing is as they are releasing this one in Nov and SSBB in Dec (i'm in uk) imo they've saved the best till last, wouldn't suprise me if some point next year they make galaxy a tie in when you buy the wii to keep momentum as wii sports will be old news by then.

Sure, and the winning lottery numbers for February. Just send me $1000 in unmarked bills.

 I'm sorry but

That's totally ridocolous. That sounds like the BEST case for the Wii.

 If you think that would be the WORST case, would do you think the BEST case is? 

 You do realise that the PS2 sold 130M last generation and that the console market grows by a significant margin every generation?

My best case scenario is 160M but I have heard others claim minimums of over 200M. 

Hey while you have that crystal ball out, I think Leo wants to know some stuff about KZ2. =P

Edit: Oh Noes, the double post monster! Sorry =P 

They always can drop price.
Wii for 99$ is probably a must have for everyone(just like tetris in it`s time). =)

What points do you disagree with?

Nope ...

The best case scenerio is that the Western World (as a whole) goes into a recession starting late 2007/early 2008 because of the fall out from the Realestate bubble and Sub-Prime mortgage fallout. Higher debt loads, hard to access credit, high unemployment, high inflation and low consumer confidence greatly reduces people's ability and willingness to make big-ticket luxury purchases. The Wii's lower price and high public interest insulate Nintendo from these troubles while Microsoft and Sony see much lower sales.

Third parties react to this by increasing market share for Nintendo by increasing their support ...

September 31st 2009 Nintendo has sold an (impressive) 80 Million consoles as compared to 20 Million XBox 360s and 16 Million PS3s. This represents Microsoft and Sony hitting price levels that most consumers would be willing to pay for their consoles ($200-$300) and the economy has recovered. Third party support is at an all time high for the Wii and an all time Low for the PS3 and XBox 360; the $150 Wii has far more good games and is finally starting to really become very interesting to 'non-gamers'.

March 31st 2010 Nintend has broken all records and smashed expectations for the holday period and Microsoft and Sony didn't come close to their expectations. Third parties begin abandoning the PS3 and XBox 360 and those that haven't are strugling financially.

Nintendo extends the life of the Wii to 6 years before replacing it due to excellent sales and its userbase is 160 Million users when the Wii-2 (or whatever) is released; over the next 4 years it sells an additional 20 Million consoles before Nintendo stops production.

Sales typically slow down during this time of year, but the Wii continues to be virtually sold out in the US.  The Wii will outsell the GameCube.  That's a no brainer at this point.  It won't happen this year, but should happen early next.  And the Wii should be able to beat the N64.  If production continues at current levels, that will probably happen by the end of 2008.  After that point, things get a little hazy.  SNES at 50M and NES at 60M are much higher loftier goals.  Doable?  Absolutely.  But a lot of that depends on how long the Wii remains on the market and what everyone else does (price drops, new games, etc.).  I think we may see a 'Wii 2' much sooner than the other two console manufacturers.  And if that happens, the sales of the Wii may be cut short.

I don't think motion controls are a fad.  Expect everyone to have them in their next system.  When the 'Wii fad' will die down, however, is anyone's guess.  But I think Nintendo has a killer line up of games this holiday season for their regular fans (MP3, SMG, SSBB) and some new 'fads' coming in 2008 (Wii Fit and any other 'non-games', Mario Kart Wii, etc.) that should help keep the momentum up for quite some time.

 I essentially said the same thing two posts above yours. Although my post was more agitated rant