Where do you live?  If you go back and read posts around that time, PS3s were readily available shortly after launch on pretty much a national basis.  There a lot of threads about Ebay people either losing money or returning them to stores before their 30 days were up.  I don't recall exactly, but I don't believe it took more than about 2 weeks for people to realize that they could get one pretty easily if you looked just a little (In most areas of the country).  Certainly I stand to be corrected but there was a sudden "oh no" from all the people that planned to ebay them and a LOT of them were returned to stores and they were suddenly available.  I saw them in my local stores from the first week after launch... Could just be my area, though...

Yea, the numbers are NA only per VG chartz. or this becasue we don't have PS3 Holiday for Europe yet... But thanks -- this was the kind of post I was hoping to see.

So you are saying the PS2 will drop (in NA) by more than 50%, the PS3 will grow by about 45% and the 360 will pretty much stay flat?  

@kn:
Woohoo thanks.

wii- 3-10 million (depending on supply)
xbox 360-2-5 million
PS3- 1-3 million
DS- 5-12 million
PSP- 2-5 million

I guess this thread isn't going anywhere so I'll come at it from a fanboy perspective and see...

I think the PS2 will probably be off quite a bit -- say -30% over last year meaning the move about 1.75M over the holidays.

I think the PS3 will probably increase by 35% over last holiday -- to about 1.1 million over the holidays.

I think that the 360 will increase by about 25% over last holiday -- to about 2.5 million over the holidays.

So, there are my predictions... These are for Nov/Dec North America.

If Sony and Microsoft (PS3/360) continue to roughly split Europe and the PS3 has a similar holiday increase in Japan, the net result is that the 360 is going to increase its overall lead over the PS3 through the end of the year by a million consoles or so. That would put the 360 out of reach of the PS3 for quite a significant timeframe... The difference in worldwide sales at end of year based on these assumptions would put the 360 at around 7.5M total worldwide more than the PS3. If the PS3 cuts its price to a point where it can outsell the 360 on a global basis by 500K consoles per month -- starting in January 08 --, we are looking at April 2009 or somewhere in there before the two consoles are even...  Assuming a 500K delta will require some ramp up time, It could be Holidays 2009 before we see parity.

The PS3 will have more than a modest increase over last holiday season, for a number of reasons:

--->The price is lower, assuming the 60 gb is still around or if not, the 80gb has been discounted
--->There are far more games available which is what depressed sales last year. This is not just about exclusives, the ps3 was hurt last year by the lack of titles, period, including multiplatform. More of those would have helped. Anyone who's visited the PS Store over the last couple months has seen just a flood of demos for new games.
--->A partisan reason maybe, but Warhawk is a damn good reason to get a PS3. There's no telling how popular it may get as the last bugs are fixed and maps are added and... who knows? Maybe they'll put single-player back in as a downloadable add-on.