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The PS3 will have more than a modest increase over last holiday season, for a number of reasons:

--->The price is lower, assuming the 60 gb is still around or if not, the 80gb has been discounted
--->There are far more games available which is what depressed sales last year. This is not just about exclusives, the ps3 was hurt last year by the lack of titles, period, including multiplatform. More of those would have helped. Anyone who's visited the PS Store over the last couple months has seen just a flood of demos for new games.
--->A partisan reason maybe, but Warhawk is a damn good reason to get a PS3. There's no telling how popular it may get as the last bugs are fixed and maps are added and... who knows? Maybe they'll put single-player back in as a downloadable add-on.