Very good read. I actually got into it and read the non-bolded parts too haha. These guys have some great insight into the industry and by and large I agree with their analysis.

These were always some of my favorite threads here.

Wii sales will rely completely on supply. Period. So there is really no way to predict the sales for the holiday season because no one knows what supply will look like. All we know is that it will be "unprecedented".

Nice article, thanks for posting it TheSource. I enjoy reading this every month, even if I don't always agree with the comments. (I don't understand the "so long" comments though - don't you guys ever read books?)

I can't help but feel that the industry analysts still don't "get it" when it comes to looking at the market. After a brief mention of the Wii (and some snippy comments about Metroid Prime 3's sales), the remaining 90% of the comments discuss the ins and outs of what's going on with the 360 and PS3. If you didn't have the numbers to look at, and just went with the discussion, you would never know that the Wii was nearly outselling the other two systems combined. (Zero mention of the DS or PSP either, despite their strong sales. Huh?) Most of the emails then revolve around discussing the performance of no fewer than *SEVEN* different upcoming shooters: Halo 3, Call of Duty 4, Unreal Tournament 3, Haze, Half-Life Orange Box, Army of Two, Area 51. Don't get me wrong; I'm sure many of those games will be great. But their take on the market is very much that of the core gamer, so much that I feel as though they're missing the larger perspective of what's going on in terms of sales.

Some of Andy McNamara's comments seem misplaced, to say the least:

This data continues to support the theory that people are buying Wii's to play a small number of games (if they play more than Wii Sports at all), and that the bread and butter of the rest of the industry will still be found on the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 (notice EA's Boogie less than spectacular showing).

Conveniently ignoring the success of Wii third party games like Resident Evil 4, Rayman, and Red Steel, Andy points to Boogie as an indicator that only Nintendo games will sell on the system. The belief that "the bread and butter of the rest of the industry will still be found on the Xbox 360 and PS3" becomes more and more difficult to accept all the time. (Heck, the PS3 still has ZERO third-party million sellers. The Wii has two!) How much longer until these guys wake up and see what's really going on???

I just have the feeling that these analysts cannot understand why generic shooter #57 gets beaten in sales by a game like Mario Party. I think they need to spend a little less time around hardcore gamers.

THX TheSource !!!!!!

but where do you get these mails ????

are you a hacker lol ?

Well interesting ideas , but I hate the fact that almost all analysts completly forget about the handhelds :(

@Sullla: Yes, I agree with your points about third party sales on Wii. The fact is, there haven't been a lot of great and/or well-marketed third party games...so why should there be great sales? Boogie did poorly because it didn't review well and has no recognizable IP.

Metroid Prime's sales are a little worrisome, but the series is not that "big".

That said, I think there's good reason to focus on Xbox 360 vs. PS3: it's the only close fight. DS is pounding PSP (I'm sure increased sales due to PSP slim will stimulate some discussion about handhelds in the next roundtable) and Wii is pounding 360/PS3, so they become non-stories. I think there may also be a bit more discussion about 360 vs. Wii next month as Halo 3 puts 360 ahead or at least equal in North America.

Edit: I find all the rumours of a 40 GB PS3 really interesting.  I chalked it up to forum rumours, but it sounds like it could really happen...even though I can't figure out how switching to 40 gigs saves Sony $100.  What else will they have to cut?  Obviously the Emotion Engine is out, but that's already out of the 80 GB model.

So I think we should just say

PS3 is LAUNCHING in 08 as SONY has all their cards ready IN 08

^Sure let's see if it works. O_O

Yeah, I'm happy about those 360 sales. Microsoft is in green now.