http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/levelup/archive/2007/09/24/monday-morning-quarterback-for-august-2007.aspx

One of the cherished traditions for people in and around the North American videogame industry is the mid-to-late month release of the previous month's sales figures for both hardware and software. Much like Hollywood with the weekend box office or the music industry with SoundScan, this data, compiled by the Port Washington, NY-based NPD Group, is the subject of much scrutiny, speculation and analysis as everyone tries to figure out What It All Means. For the month of August 2007, the unit sales numbers are as follows:

Hardware

1. Wii: 403,600
2. Nintendo DS: 383,300
3. Xbox 360: 276,700
4. PlayStation 2: 202,000
5. PlayStation Portable: 151,200
6. Playstation 3: 130,600
7. GBA 69,500

Console/Handheld Software Top Ten

1. Madden NFL 08
   Electronic Arts
   Xbox 360
   896,600
2. Madden NFL 08
   Electronic Arts
   PlayStation 2
   643,600
3. BioShock
   2K Games
   360
   490,900
4. Madden NFL 08
   Electronic Arts
   PS3
   336,200
5. Wii Play with Remote
   Nintendo
   Wii
   256,800
6. Metroid Prime 3: Corruption
   Nintendo
   Wii
   218,100
7. Mario Strikers: Charged
   Nintendo
   Wii
   147,400
8. Guitar Hero 2 with Guitar
   Activision
   PlayStation 2
   145,400
9. Mario Party 8
   Nintendo
   Wii
   138,300
10. Guitar Hero Encore: Rocks the 80s
    Activision
    PlayStation 2
    127,100

PC Software Top Ten Unit Sales

1. BioShock
   2K Games/Take Two Interactive
   91,028
2. World Of Warcraft
   Vivendi
   70,975
3. World Of Warcraft: Burning Crusade Expansion Pack
   Vivendi
   57,795
4. Civilization IV: Beyond The Sword Expansion Pack
   2K Games/Take Two Interactive
   32,756
5. Sim City 4 Deluxe
   Electronic Arts
   26,745
6. Guild Wars Eye Of The North Expansion Pack
   NCsoft
   25,175
7. The Sims 2 Deluxe
   Electronic Arts
   23,445
8. Age Of Empires III
   Microsoft
   23,209
9. Paws & Claws Pet School
   Valusoft/THQ
   22,194
10. The Sims 2 H&M Fashion Stuff Expansion Pack
    Electronic Arts
    22,059

Having engaged in many phone, email and IM back-and-forths with various people over the NPDs, as they're generally referred to, we've decided to bring some of those often unheard discussions to light with our occasional feature, Monday Morning Quarterback. As usual, our returning opponent is the Game Head himself, Geoff Keighley, pitting his BlackBerry-fueled insights against our Palm-enabled observations. But for this month of Madden, we have a color commentator in the house: Game Informer editor-in-chief Andy McNamara. He's long been a member of our mutual admiration society, so when I saw him at E3 2007 and asked him to step onto the field and throw a pass or two for an upcoming installment of MMQB, he immediately signed up for the challenge. And with that, it's time for the kickoff. We hope that you'll enjoy the discussion. (Please note that the first entry was written before the numbers were released. Also a more comprehensive assortment of sales charts--with some very basic analysis--can be found at the end of this post.)

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To: Geoff Keighley, Andy McNamara
Fr: N'Gai Croal
Date: September 13, 2007
Re: Is Halo 3 The Cure For The Common Casual?

Geoff and Andy,

I'm back at my desk, having just returned from the GameStop conference in Las Vegas. It was very much like a mini-E3: all of the major publishers in attendance trying to get GameStop store managers hyped on their latest wares before the crucial holiday season. Activision and Electronic Arts had stages where people could rawk out to Guitar Hero III and Rock Band, respectively. Ubisoft had an all white booth with gossamer fabrics hanging from the ceiling, where one of the Frag Dolls--Brookelyn, if I'm not mistaken--showing off the DS guitar sim Jam Sessions on an amp, alongside Haze and Assassins' Creed. Koji Igarashi was signing autographs in the Konami booth a few steps away from Andy and his Game Informer crew, who were signing copies of their new issue, the one with EA's Dead Space on the cover.

I also spent some time in Sierra's booth, getting the lowdown on Prototype (it's being made by Radical Entertainment, which is based in my hometown of Vancouver, Canada, eh?) and The Bourne Conspiracy. I'd been skeptical about High Moon's Bourne game based on the Official Xbox Magazine cover story, only because I didn't see how they could pull off the shaky-cam combat that is the movies' trademark. But based on what I saw, I came away very impressed. The combat and the nonstop movement are almost perfectly captured, with only the gun combat coming across as too derivative of other covert ops games. If they can solve that problem--and make the um-no-we-didn't-get-Matt-Damon's-likeness hero look less generic and more compelling--High Moon will almost certainly have a hit on its hands. Sorry I couldn't stay for your speech to the GameStop army. How did it go? Did you get any good tidbits for our readers?

As with last month's installment, I'm writing this kickoff entry before the August NPD numbers come across the transom. So I'll use Michael "Brat Pach" Pachter's predictions--420,000 Wiis, 240,000 Xbox 360s, and 150,000 Playstation 3s for a total of 810,000 consoles sold--as my way into our discussion. At the same point in the last console cycle, August 2002, there were roughly 130,000 Gamecubes, 130,000 Xboxes and 450,000 PlayStation 2s for a total of 710,000 consoles sold. Considering that all Wii, 360 and PS3 are currently retailing for significantly higher price points than their predecessors, Pachter's projections suggest a healthy aggregate hardware market, though Sony's plunge from grace is what jumps out first. Warhawk and Lair shipped too late in the month to have any impact, and judging by their respective reviews (84 Metacritic for Warhawk, 55 Metacritic for Lair), I'm expecting their combined impact in September to be muted.

In fact, when I look at Sony's exclusives through the rest of the year, I'm not convinced that I see a single system-seller in the bunch. Heavenly Sword's visuals are phenomenal, and it's getting a massive marketing push. But its Metacritic score of 80 reflects in part reviewers' complaints about the game's length and replayability, which could push many gamers to rent rather than buy. Folklore will be a modest-seller. Based on what I've seen, Ratchet & Clank: Tools of Destruction is also a graphical tour de force and a return to form for Insomniac after the dreary Ratchet: Deadlocked. Still, with six games in six years when you factor in Ratchet & Clank: Size matters on PSP, even Playstation loyalists may be suffering from Lombax fatigue.

I know that many of my peers have been wowed by Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, but each of the three times I've seen it, it appears to be poised right on the cusp of being special without ever tipping decisively in the right direction; what's more, I'm not certain that its Tomb Raider-esque brand of fantasy is as powerful in 2007 as it was in 1996. I've yet to see SOCOM: Confrontation in playable form, nor do I know of any journalist who has; given that the developer has yet to ship a game but is working on both the PS3 and PSP titles, I'd say that we might not be confronted until next year. And while SingStar PS3 looks like a winner, the high cost of the PS3 will likely keep karaoke fans on the PlayStation 2 until the price comes down. I've been saying for a while that Sony would have to cede 2007 to Microsoft and Nintendo, but I still expected them to be more competitive on the software front than they've been thus far, when in fact they've suffered from the first-year blues that plague many developers. 2008 should be stronger with Killzone 2, White Knight Story and Gran Turismo 5 (I'll believe it when I see it on store shelves), along with Resistance 2 and the first true SOCOM sequel, but until then, both Phil Harrison's worldwide studios operation and Peter Dille's marketing group still have a lot to prove.

Digging a little deeper on Pachter's Xbox 360 prediction of 240,000 sold in August, as compared to July's actual total of 170,000, and I have to say that, if true, this would represent continued softness in the 360 business. Microsoft cut the price on all three SKUs, bringing the Core Pack within $30 of the still-selling-like-hotcakes Wii. Madden went on sale last month, along with the wildly acclaimed 360 exclusive BioShock; furthermore, both games were co-marketed by Microsoft, which meant that anyone who saw the TV ads for those games also saw the Xbox 360 logo at the end. Shouldn't that have spurred significantly more demand for Redmond's chill white box?

Maybe the real question is why we--or Microsoft, for that matter--continue to expect higher sales simply because simply because the Xbox 360 is going into its third holiday? Yes, the $279 Core is within shouting distance of the $249 Wii, but the Wii is a phenomenon, while we can reasonably infer from the continued dramatic Wii-360 sales gap that the Core remains largely rejected. The fact remains that historically, even $250 is not a mainstream price point for a videogame console. The Core will undoubtedly sell more units when it eventually drops below $200, but even then, no-one who asks a friend or relative for advice would recommend the hard drive-less Core, especially with Microsoft still charging an arm and a leg for accessories. People will either pony up for the Premium, buy a Wii or keep playing their old machines.

The other way to tempt the mainstream is with software. I've been hypercritical of Microsoft's fervent belief that Rare, which seems to have lost the plot somewhere in the fields of Twycross, could bootstrap the Xbox 360 into the kind of broad audience that the PS1 and PlayStation 2 enjoyed. The company's partnership with the creators of Scene It? appears to be a much more viable way to reach those consumers, especially when paired with the wireless Buzz!-knockoff controllers.

Yet I recently spoke with someone close to Microsoft who disparaged the company's efforts in this arena. They felt that Microsoft was overly insecure about its own identity, and that it should be focused more on re-signing franchises like Crackdown than on pursuing kids and families with Viva Pinata Party Animals and Banjo Kazooie. (No Crackdown, by the way, is good news for Sierra and SCEA; their respective games, Prototype and Infamous, follow the same superhero-in-an-open world, um, prototype.) They also felt that Microsoft made a classic enemy-of-my-enemy-is-my-friend mistake--that it coddled Nintendo with Peter Moore's Wii60 message, when it should have attacked Nintendo by reminding developers that if they wanted to make cheaper games, they could make Wii-look-alikes on 360 and reach PC gamers as well--and was now overcompensating with its push for mass-market titles. What about Scene It?, I asked? The person merely snorted and kept going, insisting that Microsoft should leave those games to the THQs and Activisions of the world and make more Halos, more Gears and more Crackdowns.

If Microsoft can find more established mainstream brands like Scene It? to bring over to 360, it's a good strategy. Otherwise, I'd agree with my source that it should play to its strengths--fashioning blockbuster hardcore games from PC veterans-turned-console developers--and leave the mass-appeal games to developers like Harmonix, whose Rock Band, I'm told, will benefit from Microsoft's co-marketing dollars.

As for the Wii, I'm yawning at the prospect of its continued dominance. Over to you.

Cheers,

N'Gai

P.S. Activision has been the dominant publisher this year. Did that surprise you? And is this the month that EA reclaims its crown?

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To: Geoff Keighley, N'Gai Croal
Fr: Andy McNamara
Date: September 14, 2007
Re: The View From Middle America

After so many months of success, the Nintendo sales numbers don't really surprise me anymore. Neither does the fact that seven of the top 10 games sold on the system are from Nintendo. This data continues to support the theory that people are buying Wii's to play a small number of games (if they play more than Wii Sports at all), and that the bread and butter of the rest of the industry will still be found on the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 (notice EA's Boogie less than spectacular showing).

Unfortunately, both of these systems feel like they are underperforming. The PlayStation is a nice system, but the charts prove what we already know: There is nothing to play on the thing besides Blu-Ray movies and everyone's favorite game, "download the firmware update." The scary part is, Sony doesn't seem all that interested in changing it or striking deals with third-party companies to change the tides.

On the Microsoft side, it is obvious that the masses are fearful of Microsoft's well-publicized "Red Ring of Death," but don't really have much choice if they want to play hardcore games (read: games that aren't on Wii). Leaving people confused and just buying the PlayStation 2 and the Nintendo DS as a safe and affordable alternative (and something that they know won't break and offer hours of entertainment).

Xbox 360 should be killing out there, but it isn't. Nintendo is making money for Nintendo like always, and Sony is still figuring out how to start the engine. Thankfully, this holiday season is going to bring lots of fantastic games to the market, but unless Sony does something quick, Microsoft and Nintendo will reap all the rewards. Which puts Sony in a bit of a pickle, because its games already feel slightly rushed to market (see: Lair and Heavenly Sword), and it has put itself in a position to hurry titles out this holiday season to try and stay competitive (which is never the right answer in my book; make the game great, then figure out which quarter it goes in, not the other way around).

Andy

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To: Andy McNamara, N'Gai Croal
Fr: Geoff Keighley
Date: September 17, 2007
Re: Sent To Die?

Hey Andy, N'Gai,

As always, it's great to be back for a little Monday Morning Quarterbacking. I'm just on a plane now back from Orlando, Florida, where I was hosting the World Cyber Games US Finals at Universal Orlando. My co-host was Xbox.com's Major Nelson, and we ended up recording a podcast yesterday about various things including the NPD numbers. So if you want to hear some of my verbal analysis of the NPD, be sure to check it out on the Major's site

Going back a few days, the GameStop manager's expo sure was an interesting event. For years I had heard about it, but this was the first time the company invited a few media to experience what it's like for 5,000 store managers to get together and see the latest games. Unfortunately I didn't make it in time to check out the show floor, but I heard Slash was there to perform for Guitar Hero 3. Overall it seems like the GameStop managers are incredibly hyped about the holiday season...as am I.

But first let's take a look at the August NPD numbers. 400k for the Wii seems to be about par for the course--but it's still a spectacular number for August. You're right that August should have been a huge month for the 360 with the price cut, Madden, BioShock and Halo 3 inching closer. 276,000 units is certainly a very respectable number for 360 in August, although I am continually amazed that the 360 isn't doing even better given it's current software lineup, especially in comparison to the PS3. As for the PS3, 130k is a drop from July. And, like you point out, there don't seem to be any blockbuster games on the horizon to boost PS3 sales this holiday season. My prediction is that the PS3 is going to have a slow holiday season, unless Michael Pachter is right and the company cuts the console down to $399. That seems a bit absurd, but when you think about it even $399 just makes the PS3 competitive, not necessarily the clear victor. Sony is in a very difficult position. Where's the Killzone 2 demo? They need it yesterday. And what's with you forgetting to mention LittleBigPlanet on your list of big PS3 games for 2008? I hope that demo/beta also makes it out soon.

We've beaten hardware numbers to death over the past few months so I'm not going to spend much more time on them. But let me ask you: What impact do you think Halo 3 will have on 360 sales? Do you think it's a safe bet that the 360 will outsell the Wii in September? Anecdotally I've spoken with quite a few Halo 2 fans that are waiting to buy a 360 until Halo 3 comes out. Of course all these folks are current Xbox owners...I've yet to meet a PS2 owner who is planning to buy a 360 for Halo 3.  If that's the case, Halo 3 may have a limited upside to Microsoft. It will sell phenomenally well to the core 360 consumer, but will it expand the audience or installed base beyond Xbox upgraders? Gears didn't really move the needle on hardware sales. I think Halo 3 will to some degree, but if the 360 just sells 400-450k units in September, won't that be seen as somewhat of a disappointment?

As for software sales, EA had a great month with Madden (selling over 800K on 360) and BioShock certainly delivered for 2K. I'm pretty sure BioShock's 600k-plus sales make it the third best-selling title in month one behind Gears (1 million-plus) and this year's Madden. Given that BioShock came out relatively late in the month, I'm also betting it will have a big September and continue to sell well during the holidays.

You mention Activision's dominance as a third party publisher for the first half of the year. Clearly Madden's success puts EA within striking distance (or ahead) of Activision year-to-date. Plus, the fact that a lot of Activision's revenue is generated off high-priced Guitar Hero bundles certainly helps the story. For the rest of the year we know Call of Duty 4 and Guitar Hero III will post blockbuster numbers, but beyond that I can't see any other Activision games really delivering. Then again, Activision is probably in a better position than a company like THQ. Conan's coming out next week--sent to die?

Actually we should talk about that phrase for a second--"sent to die." I read it on a forum a few months ago when gamers were discussing which games won't be getting a fair shake because of the overcrowded market. (I should point out that I haven't played Conan yet--so I can't comment on its quality or lack thereof). But let me ask you: which games do you think we might need to add to our death pool for the holidays? I'm particularly worried about EA's Army of Two and Midway's BlackSite: Area 51--two games that should be fun to play, but may get lost.  And what about Ubisoft's Assassin's Creed? Is it really going to post huge sales numbers? Given the awards and number of times the trailers have been downloaded there's huge interest in the game. But will that translate into a BioShock-sized month one for the game in November? Or will Assassin's suffer the same fate as many other Ubi games that are critical grand slams but only end up delivering solid doubles in terms of sales.  I thought this would be a huge year for Ubisoft, but with Splinter Cell slipping to 2008 (and the quality of Haze an open question mark), a lot is resting on Assassin's.

I'll close my thoughts by restating something I said last month: third parties have to figure out how to be big on the Wii. In August there was just one third party Wii game in the top 20--and it was Madden, at number 11. Do you think there are any third party Wii games that are going to chart top 10 this holiday season? Besides Guitar Hero III (which GameStop thinks is going to be huge), I can't really see anything else getting within striking distance of Nintendo's first party dominance. One thing's for sure: Boogie certainly didn't do it in August. What do you think EA can learn from Boogie's disappointing sales?

Geoff

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To: Geoff Keighley, Andy McNamara
Fr: N'Gai Croal
Date: September 20, 2007
Re: The MMQB Inaugural Dead Pool

Geoff, Andy,

Let me wrap up the hardware wars part of my analysis before moving on to game-vs.-game combat. I'll start out with a quick-and-dirty comparative analysis of the lift that PS3 and 360 got from their July and August price cuts, respectively:

• Xbox 360 sold 170,000 units in July before the price cut and 276,700 units in August, the month the price drop took place, for an increase of 106,000, or 62.4 percent.
• PS3 sold 98,500 units in June before its price cut, and 159,000 units in its own price drop month of July, for an increase of 60,500, or 61.4 percent.

So while the percentage increases were comparable, the 360 still saw a bigger unit sales impact from its pricing adjustments than did the PS3. Furthermore, PS3 sales fell in August because a) $499 is still too expensive, and b) it still doesn't have the kinds of games to sustain its boost. That won't be the case with the 360, which ships Halo 3 next week and has more highly anticipated first and third party exclusives for the rest of 2007 than does Sony.

PS3: Andy, you raised an interesting point about whether Sony is rushing titles to market rather than taking the time to make them great. But the games that you've cited, Lair and Heavenly Sword, were both given at least six months extra time in training camp. At some point, they've got to get on the field and play. Besides, Sony doesn't have the luxury of waiting for its 2007 games to be great, not when third parties are shipping the PS3 versions of their multiplatform days, weeks or months after the 360 SKU. EA claimed insufficient development experience on PS3 as the reason that its version of Madden ran at half the frame rate of the 360's--60 frames per second on 360 vs 30 frames per second on PS3--but I don't buy it. They had to have been among the first developers in the world to get their hands on PS3 development systems. Didn't EA show us Fight Night running on a PS3 dev kit at E3 2005? Oh, well. That's Peter Moore's problem now.

360: Geoff, you asked whether it was a safe bet that 360 outsells Wii in September. I'd say it's safe-ish, but not entirely so. First, Halo 3 is shipping late in the month, but fortunately for Microsoft's bragging rights, September is a five-week reporting period, meaning that Halo 3 will have 12 days to boost the 360 past such Wii standard bearers as MySims, Dewy's Adventure and Cosmic Family. I'd say that's do-able. Still, I'm not convinced that Halo 3's system-selling abilities will be fully demonstrated in September, because September is for the hardcore, the early adopters, and the existing owners. The Halo games have generally had longer legs than Venus Williams, so I predict that it will have a greater impact in October, November and December, as fence-sitters play follow the leader.

What could put 360 over the top, however, is continued sales of Madden. I've spoken before about how Microsoft has assiduously and relentlessly used its first-mover status to take away a number of the advantages that Sony had with PS2, and we're seeing it again with Madden on 360 (896,600 units purchased) nearly matching the versions on PS3 (336,200) and PS2 (643,600) combined. Apart from those people who wanted slightly better graphics and integrated online play, last-gen's Madden platform was PS2. This time around, Xbox 360 is taking the lead, and Sony is going to struggle to catch up, let alone surpass it. I'm sure there were a few foam fingers being waved at Xbox HQ when the numbers came out.

Wii: What did you two think of Metroid Prime 3: Corruption only selling 218,100 units? I know it came out on August 28^th, which meant that there were just five days left in the August reporting period, but I'd have thought it would have sold more based on pre-orders alone. At the end of last month's MMQB, I chastised Western publishers for not making more hardcore games for the underserved Nintendo fanatics. But based on this early showing, something is rotten in Redmond, even if it's just a lack of awareness due to a late-starting marketing campaign, as a number of message board posters have charged. Third parties look to Nintendo for their cues, and should a game as well-reviewed as Metroid Prime 3 stall out while Wii Play and Mario Party 8 continue to dominate, why would publishers step outside the mini-game ghetto?

Enough hardware talk. Onto the software.

We know that certain people at Electronic Arts have long had Ubisoft in their sights as the opponent they'd most like to take down. But based on the year that Activision is having, I'll bet that they're laser focused on those guys down the Pacific Coast Highway. For much of this year, any smack being talked would have come from Activision, with Guitar Hero III refusing to burn out or fade away; Shrek, Transformers and Spider-Man racking up sales in the movie licensed space that EA once dominated; and Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare not only continue to steal mindshare from Medal of Honor, but taking direct aim at EA's Battlefield franchise. However, I fear that Activision may have awakened a sleeping giant. Many of us were skeptical when EA announced Skate, especially at EA Vancouver's choice to go in a simulation direction when the category leader is an arcade-y game. Yet the reviews have been phenomenal, with EA's first skating game in years posting a Metacritic score of 85, compared to scores ranging from 67 to 81 for the various versions of 2006's Tony Hawk's Project 8, despite the latter game's we-make-one-every-year advantage.

Less surprising, but just as impressive is the way that Rock Band has snatched most of the gaming cognoscenti buzz from Guitar Hero III. I still think that EA and MTV have a lot of work to do to spread that awareness to the general public, but it's a testament to the excellent work that the team at Harmonix has done. I saw a newer build at the GameStop conference, and it looked even better than the one I'd seen in late July, small, intricate details that show how much TLC is being put into Rock Band's maiden voyage. That said, it's starting to dawn on some that for solo play, GHIII may have the edge with its six-string-oriented tracks, as opposed to Rock Band's song selections, which will require more democratic arrangements. I'm just glad I have this job so that I can get both for free for editorial purposes.

Geoff, are you suggesting that we add a Dead Pool as a regular MMQB feature? Vicious. But I'm up for it. Lest people think we're just gratuitously bashing games, let me remind them of your description: "which games won't be getting a fair shake because of the overcrowded market." Got it? Good.

You mentioned THQ's Conan, EA's Army of Two and Midway's BlackSite: Area 51. All worthy candidates, for various reasons. But you're playing it safe with such obvious choices. I'm going to go out on a limb and nominate the console versions of Half-Life 2: The Orange Box. You might think I'm crazy, but hear me out. HL2:TOB might be the most value ever packed into a single case: Half-Life 2, Episode 1, Episode 2, Team Fortress 2 and Portal. I bet if Valve could have figured out a way to toss in a gravity gun and a crowbar, they'd have done so. But by throwing so much into the package, HL2:TOB comes across as completely unfocused, especially compared to its chief competitors like Halo 3 and Call of Duty 4, so positioning this product becomes a major challenge. Especially for a franchise that's still primarily identified as a PC game.

I find myself wondering if Valve might have been better off removing Team Fortress 2 from the Orange Box and releasing it in January or February as a separate game, with a "Dirty Dozen"-style campaign mode--I'm thinking something short, around six hours or so--that would leverage the phenomenal character work that they've been doing in their Pixar-esque promotional trailers. That IP is strong enough to anchor a standalone product, and the early buzz from the PC gaming press is astounding. I hope I'm wrong about its prospects, because HL2:TOB is going to be worth every penny. I just worry that it will be overshadowed in the overstuffed holiday period.

Haze is another potential dead game walking. I was more impressed by the 2006 demo you and I attended--don't ask me which captivated me more, the game's striking look and concept, or the manic intensity of screenwriter Rob Yescombe's Jim Carrey-esque presentation--than I've been by anything since. Free Radical has some intriguing ideas, most notably its better-shooting-through-chemistry drug Nectar that you boosts your abilities as a mercenary or can be turned against the Mantle Corp troops when you switch sides and become a rebel later in the game. But the ideas are more interesting in theory than in practice. Bullet-time, increased strength and getting an early warning as to where a grenade will explode aren't inherently interesting, and I'm afraid that based on the execution thus far, I'm not yet seeing the special in Haze. With Call of Duty 4 shipping this holiday, being a PS3 exclusive title is not enough to make that game separate itself from the pack. Hopefully Ubisoft will give Free Radical the time it needs to make something truly great.

My final choice is on the bubble: Unreal Tournament III. Even though it's a timed console exclusive for PS3, it may end up seeming more essential to the developers who are depending Unreal Engine middleware than to PS3 owners looking for a new fix. Why? The UT franchise is strongly PC-identified, and it lacks a compelling story or a standout main character. That said, the game looks incredible, like Gears with more color and bigger environments; its gameplay is buttery smooth; and if it gets a steady flow of new maps from the mod community, Playstation Network download whores will fill up their hard drives with all that UT goodness. And if that weren't enough, Epic and Midway should benefit from Sony's co-marketing dollars and the relative dearth of first-person shooter competitors on PS3 compared to 360. If SOCOM Confrontation slips into 2008, as its continued elusiveness suggests, UTIII's only legitimate opponent will be Call of Duty 4. I don't expect Epic to win that battle, but there's still a meaningful opportunity for it to move units.

All this dead pool talk is undoubtedly making me come across as a nattering nabob of negativity, or a hater, as the kids like to say. So let me switch gears for a bit and talk about a game that will outperform expectations. (What's the opposite of a dead pool, anyway?) This isn't going out on a limb, but despite the nitpicking of a certain blogger, I think that Call of Duty 4 has been set up in an absolutely masterful fashion. From the world exclusive cover story in (cough) Game Informer (cough) to every one of its media events--each of which showcased off a new campaign level--culminating in its go-deep-and-go-hard theft of the Microsoft E3 press conference from the expected standout Halo 3, to its current highly and deservedly praised multiplayer beta, Infinity Ward and Activision have put on a PR and marketing clinic, and I hope their peers have been taking notes. (Among this year's titles, only BioShock's seemingly-out-of-nowhere PR push down the homestretch even comes close.) It's the only game that can stand up to Halo 3 on Xbox Live, and I fully expect to see divided allegiances among groups of buddies on Live this December, with Halo 3 partisans trying to sway their friends to join them in the Forge, and Call of Duty 4 fans pressuring those same pals to volunteer for, um, duty.

I'm going to throw this back to you guys before I wrap it up. Any reactions to the announcements out of the Tokyo Game Show? There was a bomba some platform news--Home was delayed; Sixaxis is adding rumble; PSP will be able to turn your PS3 on and off remotely--but I was more taken by the playable games on display, like White Knight Story, Metal Gear Solid 4 and No More Heroes. Which games are you psyched to play?

Cheers,

N'Gai

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To: N'Gai Croal, Andy McNamara
Fr: Geoff Keighley
Date: September 23, 2007
Re: Dualshock, Minus The Awe

N'Gai, Andy,

As I sit here playing some Halo 3 on my 360, I can hardly wait until we write MMQB for September. Will Halo 3 be the fuel 360 needs to top 500,000 units in September? Will the game cross the 2 million unit sales mark in less than a week in the U.S.? Both scenarios are possible, but, as you point out, the "halo" effect on the 360 may take a few months to play out. Still, these are the months when Microsoft should be capitalizing on Sony's weak software lineup and high price, plus a lack of compelling mass-market games for the Wii. The clip of ammo is fully loaded for Microsoft. It will come as a huge disappointment to the entire industry if the 360 doesn't take off in a more pronounced way.

But I don't want to get ahead of myself, so let's get back to the August numbers. You asked what I thought of the Metroid Prime 3: Corruption sales numbers and I'd called them solid, not spectacular. As veteran MMQB readers know I've long questioned how the so-called "hard-core" Nintendo games will fare on the Wii. Metroid's performance is acceptable but it certainly doesn't suggest the game will turn into a huge blockbuster. Why not? As you point out the marketing campaign for the game was late and a bit misguided. (The game needed its own campaign, not a re-purpose of the "Wii Want to Play" ads). Also, let's not forget that Metroid Prime 2: Echoes did not do particularly well on the Gamecube. That said, I expect that Super Mario Galaxy and Super Smash Bros (featuring wi-fi online play!) will both post blockbuster numbers for Nintendo.

Oh, and finally on the topic of Nintendo, let's see if Reggie [Fils-Aime, president of Nintendo of America] reads this. Because if he does, he only has a couple days left to fulfill a promise he made me at E3. While appearing on camera for my Spike show Game Head (so yes, you can go back and "read his lips"), he promised a "big surprise" was coming to the Wii by the end of September, signified by the flashing blue light on the DVD drive. Reggie, my light still hasn't gone off and you have a week left to deliver...

Good choices for the Dead Pool, N'Gai. I agree with all of them, although I was never expecting Unreal Tournament 3 or Haze to do particularly well. I'm still somewhat skeptical as to the quality of Haze; UT3 I expect to be a really solid game. And regarding your provocative choice of Half-Life 2: Orange Box as a potential disappointment, I see where you are coming from. Valve is a little nuts to pack all that game onto one disc, but maybe that's what consumers will be expecting in the wake of Halo 3's comprehensive $60 experience. Still, Valve has always struggled with the console market and part of me thinks that Orange Box is really geared toward the PC/Steam community. (Valve makes more money via Steam anyway.) Also let's not forget that Half-Life 2 for the original Xbox was a pretty huge disappointment, in part because of bad timing: it came out only about a month before the 360 shipped. But the biggest force working against Half-Life 2 on the 360 and PS3: I'm still not convinced that console gamers really know or care about the Half-Life brand. (Much the same could be said of Unreal in the wake of the disappointing sales of Unreal Championship.) This may be a case of Orange Box making a killing on the PC but only posting moderate sales on the consoles. You're right though: Valve should have held TF2 until early next year and shipped it as a separate 360/PS3 game.

Finally, let's turn to TGS. Due to production on my Spike show I wasn't able to make it over to TGS this year, but I did follow the Sony news online. I was underwhelmed. Yes, the Dualshock 3 was announced at the show, but we all knew it was coming--but not until 2008 in North America and Europe? More and more it looks like Sony is ceding this holiday to Microsoft (which we've been predicting for a while) and gearing up for 2008. And in theory 2008 could be a good one for PS3, with Killzone and Little Big Planet. I'm also hearing that Sony will be completely revamping its PS3 ad campaign. (Goodbye, white room.). Will it be too little too late? Pre-TGS, Michael Pachter was predicting a $399 PS3 price drop announcement. That didn't happen. Clearly PS3 would be much more competitive at that price, but Sony would lose a lot on the hardware. For a while I started to believe the price drop might happen--not because Sony wants to do it, but because they may have to make a drastic price slash to stay competitive this generation. It's conceivable we could see such a drop by Thanksgiving, but again I wonder if the strategy is to wait until 2008 when there is more compelling software to push sales.

Speaking of Sony, this morning I read an interview with Jack Tretton in the Hollywood Reporter about PSN. When quizzed about the lack of a download service for movies and TV shows, he admitted that it won't be coming in 2007 but "certainly within this console lifecycle." At least Sony is being honest that it's not coming this year, but the company's lethargic pace at bringing the PS3 fully online continues to shock me. While Xbox is delivering shows like "Family Guy" and "Robot Chicken"--with rumors of many more announcements in the next few weeks--PlayStation is taking its sweet time. Maybe that's our pool for next month: predicting when Sony will actually launch a multimedia download service on PS3 and PSP. Or better yet, let's predict when Sony will launch achievement points on the PS3. In his most recent editorial, Andy Mac proposed a great idea: give 2,000 points per game instead of the 1,000 on Xbox. Maybe that way PS3 gamers will catch up with their 360 scores sooner rather than later.

See you at the Halo launch in NYC!

Geoff

***

To: Geoff Keighley, Andy McNamara
Fr: N'Gai Croal
Date: September 24, 2007
Re:

Geoff, Andy,

We've gone on long enough (we know, we know), so I'll take us to the outro as quickly as possible (yeah, right).

1. Geoff, your follow-on thoughts about Half-Life 2: The Orange Box reaffirmed my thinking that Valve may have missed an opportunity with Team Fortress 2, likely because the folks over there have been looking at it through the lens of their PC heritage. The original Team Fortress is more than ten years old, making it a prime candidate for a reboot that wouldn't necessarily be PC-identified. And Valve had already gotten halfway there with Team Fortress 2's distinctive-for-videogames look, which closely resembles Pixar's "The Incredibles." But by jamming it into The Orange Box, rather than separating it out and pairing it with a short-but-sweet campaign mode, I fear that Valve has inadvertently sold their, um, incredible game short.

2. Maybe Reggie's "big surprise" was the Friend Vouchers for Metroid Prime 3: Corruption, which let you and your friends unlock extra features in the game. Reggie?

3. As for the prospects of Super Mario Galaxy and Super Smash Bros Brawl, it goes without saying that both will be hits. I expect Brawl in particular to have great legs. However, having just played a bunch of Halo 3 in advance of tonight's launch, messing around with the Forge level editor, Saved Films and the screenshot tool, along with the terrific community and communication features of Xbox Live and Bungie.net, I'm reminded of how truly archaic and desultory Nintendo's approach to online has been. None of this will matter one iota as far as sales, but Nintendo fanboys ought to raise holy hell to convince the company to step up to the plate and give them the kind of community features that could rival its competitors.

4. I wasn't surprised that Sony didn't announce a price cut at Tokyo Game Show. In fact, I'm hoping they don't announce one at all this year. Not because they don't need to--they most certainly do--but because if they do, I will in all likelihood owe Xbox games platform strategist Andre "Ozymandias" Vrignaud a steak dinner. That said, the day after I made my bet with Andre, I started to get some, ah, rumblings from trusted sources outside of Sony that, if true, strongly suggest that a $399 SKU is on the way. My source tells me that Sony placed a sizable order for 40 gigabyte hard drives. My source also informs me that the profit and loss on hardware has been moved from Sony Computer Entertainment International (SCEI) to the regional groups, SCE America, SCE Europe and SCE Japan. This means that each territory is now free to set its own pricing on PS3 hardware, but those individual territories are responsible for managing the hit to their profitability if they decide to cut the price.

Again, if my source is correct, I'd expect to see a $399 PS3 in North America before Thanksgiving. (Start looking at Gotham's menu, Andre.) I'm not sure that Japan will cut its price that much, but I suspect that they will time their price cut to the December release of Gran Turismo 5 Prologue; the Japanese will probably also see some GT5 Prologue bundles as well. Europe is a bit of a wild card, since various PAL territories have already put together some extravagant bundles to help justify the PS3's extravagant price, but I expect them to avail themselves of the returning 40 gigabyte model as well. As for which features will be stripped out to reduce the costs, my source is silent on that point, but smart people can do the guesswork themselves. I will say this, now may be the time for die-hard PS2 fans to snap up the current $499 SKU, because I'm not willing to bet that full PS2 backwards compatibility will be guaranteed in any future models.

5. I'm going to miss the White Room ads for Playstation 3. Then again, I'm the type of guy who prefers the Halo 3 diorama TV spots to last year's "Mad World" ads. (You can take the boy out of the arthouse, but you can't take the arthouse out of the boy.) I don't blame the PS3 ad campaign for its slow-as-molasses start--the high price and the lack of AAA games should shoulder the responsibility--but it might well be time for a new approach, and I hope that SCEA's marketing chief Peter Dille comes up with something cool. Sliding over to print ads for a sec, I picked up the new PSM yesterday, and I was rather impressed by the ad for Area 51 Blacksite. The elements are simple--a suburban bacdrop, a little girl holding a teddy bear, and a massive alien towering over her--yet it made me want to play the game more than anything I've seen thus far. (Yes, I'm weird like that.) The Assassin's Creed print ads aren't bad either. Maybe both games will escape the clutches of our Holiday Dead Pool after all.

Gentlemen, it's been a blast.

Cheers,

N'Gai

*** 

Hardware

1. Console: Wii
   This month's total: 403,600
   Last month total: 425,000
   Change: -21,400
   Percentage: -5.0 percent
   This month's weekly average: 100,750
   Last month's weekly average: 106,250
   Change: -5,500
2. Console: Nintendo DS
   This month's total: 383,300
   Last month total: 405,000
   Change: - 21,700
   Percentage: -5.4 percent
   This month's weekly average: 95,825
   Last month's weekly average: 101,250
   Change: 5,425
3. Console: Xbox 360
   This month's total: 276,700
   Last month total: 170,000
   Change: 106,000
   Percentage: +62.4 percent
   This month's weekly average: 69,175
   Last month's weekly average: 42,500
   Change: +26,675
4. Console: PlayStation 2
   This month's total: 202,000
   Last month total: 222,000
   Change: -20,000
   Percentage: -9.0 percent
   This month's weekly average: 50,500
   Last month's weekly average: 55,500
   Change: 5,000
5. Console: PlayStation Portable
   This month's total: 151,200
   Last month total: 214,000
   Change: -62,800
   Percentage: -29.3 percent
   This month's weekly average: 37,800
   Last month's weekly average: 53,500
   Change: 15,700
6. Console: PlayStation 3
   This month's total: 130,600
   Last month total: 159,000
   Change: -28,400
   Percentage: -17.9 percent
   This month's weekly average: 32,650
   Last month's weekly average: 39,750
   Change: -7,100
7. Console: GBA
   This month's total: 69,500
   Last month total: 87,000
   Change: -17,500
   Percentage: -20.1 percent
   This month's weekly average: 17,375
   Last month's weekly average: 21,750
   Change: 4,375

Top 20 Console/Handheld Game Rankings

1. Madden NFL 08
   Electronic Arts
   Xbox 360
2. Madden NFL 08
   Electronic Arts
   PlayStation 2
3. BioShock
   2K Games
   360
4. Madden NFL 08
   Electronic Arts
   PS3
5. Wii Play with Remote
   Nintendo
   Wii
6. Metroid Prime 3: Corruption
   Nintendo
   Wii
7. Mario Strikers: Charged
   Nintendo
   Wii
8. Guitar Hero 2 with Guitar
   Activision
   PlayStation 2
9. Mario Party 8
   Nintendo
   Wii
10. Guitar Hero Encore: Rocks the 80s
    Activision
    PlayStation 2
11. Madden NFL 08
    Electronic Arts
    Xbox
12. Madden NFL 08
    Electronic Arts
    Wii
13. Brain Age 2: More Training In Minutes a Day
    Nintendo
    DS
14. Two Worlds
    Southpeak Interactive
    Xbox 360
15. Pokemon Diamond
    Nintendo
    DS
16. High School Musical: Makin' the Cut
    Disney Interactive
    DS
17. Guitar Hero 2 with Guitar
    Activision
    Xbox 360
18. Madden NFL 08
    Electronic Arts
    PlayStation Portable
19. Pokemon Pearl
    Nintendo
    DS
20. Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08
    Electronic Arts
    Xbox 360

Top 20 PC Game Rankings

1. BioShock
   2K Games/Take Two Interactive
2. World Of Warcraft
   Vivendi
3. World Of Warcraft: Burning Crusade Expansion Pack
   Vivendi
4. Civilization IV: Beyond The Sword Expansion Pack
   2K Games/Take Two Interactive
5. Sim City 4 Deluxe
   Electronic Arts
6. Guild Wars Eye Of The North Expansion Pack
   NCsoft
7. The Sims 2 Deluxe
   Electronic Arts
8. Age Of Empires III
   Microsoft
9. Paws & Claws Pet School
   Valusoft/THQ
10. The Sims 2 H&M Fashion Stuff Expansion Pack
    Electronic Arts
11. The Sims 2 Seasons Expansion Pack
    Electronic Arts
12. Madden NFL 2008
    Electronic Arts
13. 5555 Games JC
    Viva Media
14. Warcraft III Battle Chest
    Vivendi
15. Puppy/Kitty/Pony Luv Pack
    Activision
16. Starcraft: Battle Chest
    Vivendi
17. Battlefield 2142
    Electronic Arts
18. Sponge Bob Square Pants: Diner Dash
    Valusoft/THQ
19. The Sims 2: University Expansion Pack
    Electronic Arts
20. Command & Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars
    Electronic Arts

Top 10 Wii Titles

1. Wii Play with Remote
   Nintendo
2. Metroid Prime 3: Corruption
   Nintendo
3. Mario Strikers: Charged
   Nintendo
4. Mario Party 8
   Nintendo
5. Madden NFL 08
   Electronic Arts
6. Boogie with Microphone
   Electronic Arts
7. Resident Evil 4
   Capcom
8. Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
   Nintendo
9. Super Paper Mario
   Nintendo
10. Pokemon Battle Revolution
    Nintendo

Top 10 Xbox 360 Titles 

1. Madden NFL 08
   Electronic Arts
2. BioShock
   2K Games/Take-Two Interactive
3. Two Worlds
   Southpeak Interactive
4. Guitar Hero II with Guitar
   Activision
5. Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08
   Electronic Arts
6. NCAA Football 08
   Electronic Arts
7. Blue Dragon
   Microsoft
8. Gears of War
   Microsoft
9. Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas
   Ubisoft
10. NASCAR 08
    Electronic Arts

Top 10 Playstation 3 Titles 

1. Madden NFL 08
   Electronic Arts
2. Warhawk with Headset
   Sony Computer Entertainment
3. Lair
   Sony Computer Entertainment
4. Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Advanced Warfighter 2
   Ubisoft
5. Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08
   Electronic Arts
6. Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas
   Ubisoft
7. Ninja Gaiden Sigma
   Tecmo
8. Resistance: Fall of Man
   Sony Computer Entertainment
9. NCAA Football 08
   Electronic Arts
10. NASCAR 08
    Electronic Arts

Top 10 PlayStation 2 Titles 

1. Madden NFL 08
   Electronic Arts
2. Guitar Hero II with Guitar
   Activision
3. Guitar Encore: Rocks the 80s
   Activision
4. NCAA Football 08
   Electronic Arts
5. Transformers
   Activision
6. Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3
   Atlus
7. Naruto: Ultimate Ninja 2
   Namco Bandai Games of America
8. NASCAR 08
   Electronic Arts
9. WWE Smackdown Vs. Raw 2007
   THQ
10. Guitar Hero
    Activision

Top 10 DS Titles

1. Brain Age 2: More Training In Minutes a Day
   Nintendo
2. Pokemon Diamond
   Nintendo
3. High School Musical: Makin the Cut
   Disney Interactive Studios
4. Pokemon Pearl
   Nintendo
5. New Super Mario Bros
   Nintendo
6. Mario Kart
   Nintendo
7. Brain Age: Train Your Brain In Minutes a Day
   Nintendo
8. Hannah Montana
   Disney Interactive Studios
9. Rune Factory: Fantasy Harvest Moon
   Natsume
10. Ratatouille
    THQ

Top 10 PlayStation Portable Titles 

1. Madden NFL 08
   Electronic Arts
2. Transformers: The Game
   Activision
3. Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories
   Take-Two Interactive
4. Midnight Club 3: Dub Edition
   Take-Two Interactive
5. Monster Hunter: Freedom 2
   Capcom USA
6. SOCOM: U.S. Navy Seals Fireteam Bravo 2
   Sony Computer Entertainment
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Tactics
   Atari
8. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Stories
   Take-Two Interactive
9. Need For Speed: Most Wanted
   Electronic Arts
10. Naruto: Ultimate Ninja Heroes
    Namco Bandai Games of America

Top 10 Game Boy Advance Titles 

1. Pokemon Fire Red
   Nintendo
2. Pokemon Leaf Green
   Nintendo
3. Pokemon Emerald
   Nintendo
4. Super Mario Advance 2
   Nintendo
5. Ratatouille
   THQ
6. Mario Kart: Super Circuit
   Nintendo
7. Super Mario Advance
   Nintendo
8. Lego Star Wars II: The Original Trilogy
   Lucasarts
9. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Red Rescue Team
   Nintendo
10. Dogz
    Ubisoft

Top 10 Console/Handheld Accessories 

1. Wii Nunchuk
   Nintendo
2. Wii Remote
   Nintendo
3. Playstation 3 Sixaxis Controller
   Sony Computer Entertainment
4. 360 Wireless Controller
   Microsoft
5. PlayStation 2 Eight Megabyte Memory Card
   Sony Computer Entertainment
6. Wii Points Card
   Nintendo
7. Xbox 360 Live 1600 Point Game Card
   Microsoft
8. 360 Wireless Controller Black
   Microsoft
9. Xbox Eclipse Controller
   Pelican
10. Wii Classic Controller
    Nintendo

Very interesting stuff, especially if Sony's regional bosses are now individually responsible for PS3 pricing.

That's like the biggest post in internet history.

Interesting to see the PC numbers compared to console numbers... kinda tells you the way we go... we go with tor... flow.

its a good read though

cool anaylsis. I do think Sony is giving this year to Microsoft, but I expect them out on all fronts next year.

Nice Post.. Looks like $400 ps3 may hit for Christmas. Also was interesting take on Sony. Kind of holding there cards till 08.

I think exactly the same about most things...

The Dead in the Water feeling is given to a lot of games this year... hopefully they aren't forgotten so that people can fill the holes during the first half of next year when they have nothing 'new' to play.

400 ps3! awsome they might be back into the competition!

This is the longest post I have ever seen and I read it all WOW.

I think the same for the most things they say.

I don't how many of you agree with me, but I think these next few weeks (through early November) are going to largely the pecking order in the West.  As far I can tell from watching the industry, there are three basic weapons to boost sales/gain marketshare:

1) Price drop(s).  The first one is tantamount to a nuclear strike, the others have far less impact, but are still powerful weaponry.

2) Games guarenteed to sell 5 million+ copies worldwide(lifetime, not in week or month one) that are console exclusive.  There are not many of these released - I'd guess ~10-25 per generation on average (17 on PS2, GC, and Xbox combined) This year, Wii has/had Wii Play, Smash Brothers, Super Mario Galaxy.  360 has Halo 3.  A couple other games have an outside shot at this - notably Bioshock (anyone have Euro numbers?) for 360.

3) Advertise the hell out of your differentiation factor (Waggle, Live, graphical superiority).

Also to sell the most, you have to find a way - anyway - to become the successor to the last generation super power (in this case PS2), at the same time you have to know when to use your weapons in succession - but don't burn them all out at once.

In my breakdown that amounts to 2007 being:

Nintendo's content + pricing advantages + ~6 big 3rd party games (Nights, Zack and Wiki, Soul Calibur Legends, Guitar Hero 3, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games, and Trauma Center 2) + differentiation

vs.

Halo 3 + price cut + strong 3rd party support (GH III, Call of Duty 4, Bioshock, Rockband, Assassin's Creed, Phantasy Star Universe) + first mover advantages

Overall I have three scenarios for Sept to Dec (going by NPD) best, neutrel, and worst case for Microsoft and Nintendo (Sept and Dec are 5 week periods).

             September                 October                November                 December 

360     350k/450k/550k       320k/400k/480k    600k/650k/700k      1300k/1450k/1600k

Wii      420k/460k/500k       350k/400k/450k    750k/1000k/1250k   1500k/2000k/2500k

September and October are close -  and October's period sees Guitar Hero III for Wii/360 - and a number of releases the hardcore will want for both consoles.  November sees nearly double demand for 360 - however Wii will see a much larger boost due to Galaxy's release coinciding with the holiday season.  Wii sales jumped 20% on the release on Metroid Prime 3 in August.  It is pretty reasonable to assume Galaxy will accompany a huge shipment - even by holiday standards.  In December, demand will go through the roof for Wii - and numbers should be huge.  Brawl releases in December -building a solid lineup for Wii hardware which will be seeing Prime 3-Brawl-Galaxy-GH3-Wii Play quintet driving ridiculous hardware sales.  360's quintet of Rockband-GH3-Call of Duty 4-Bioshock-Halo 3 will be compelling too - but price will be a limiting factor.

For the record, I'm expecting the middle scenario for each console for all four months - meaning September/October are basically a coin flip.  If the top tier scenario is met for each month, I'm going to regret not investing...but I don't think the numbers are impossible either.  Still, I'm expecting 3.86 million for Wii, and 2.95 million for 360 over Sept-Dec. 

God help us if Wii does 4.7 million and 360 does 3.33 million - that would put the industry well over 20 billion just in the USA I imagine.

Hey look, PC software sales numbers lol

World of Warcraft.. just sells to damn well... and another expansion is coming.. geez...