I don't how many of you agree with me, but I think these next few weeks (through early November) are going to largely the pecking order in the West. As far I can tell from watching the industry, there are three basic weapons to boost sales/gain marketshare:
1) Price drop(s). The first one is tantamount to a nuclear strike, the others have far less impact, but are still powerful weaponry.
2) Games guarenteed to sell 5 million+ copies worldwide(lifetime, not in week or month one) that are console exclusive. There are not many of these released - I'd guess ~10-25 per generation on average (17 on PS2, GC, and Xbox combined) This year, Wii has/had Wii Play, Smash Brothers, Super Mario Galaxy. 360 has Halo 3. A couple other games have an outside shot at this - notably Bioshock (anyone have Euro numbers?) for 360.
3) Advertise the hell out of your differentiation factor (Waggle, Live, graphical superiority).
Also to sell the most, you have to find a way - anyway - to become the successor to the last generation super power (in this case PS2), at the same time you have to know when to use your weapons in succession - but don't burn them all out at once.
In my breakdown that amounts to 2007 being:
Nintendo's content + pricing advantages + ~6 big 3rd party games (Nights, Zack and Wiki, Soul Calibur Legends, Guitar Hero 3, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games, and Trauma Center 2) + differentiation
vs.
Halo 3 + price cut + strong 3rd party support (GH III, Call of Duty 4, Bioshock, Rockband, Assassin's Creed, Phantasy Star Universe) + first mover advantages
Overall I have three scenarios for Sept to Dec (going by NPD) best, neutrel, and worst case for Microsoft and Nintendo (Sept and Dec are 5 week periods).
September October November December
360 350k/450k/550k 320k/400k/480k 600k/650k/700k 1300k/1450k/1600k
Wii 420k/460k/500k 350k/400k/450k 750k/1000k/1250k 1500k/2000k/2500k
September and October are close - and October's period sees Guitar Hero III for Wii/360 - and a number of releases the hardcore will want for both consoles. November sees nearly double demand for 360 - however Wii will see a much larger boost due to Galaxy's release coinciding with the holiday season. Wii sales jumped 20% on the release on Metroid Prime 3 in August. It is pretty reasonable to assume Galaxy will accompany a huge shipment - even by holiday standards. In December, demand will go through the roof for Wii - and numbers should be huge. Brawl releases in December -building a solid lineup for Wii hardware which will be seeing Prime 3-Brawl-Galaxy-GH3-Wii Play quintet driving ridiculous hardware sales. 360's quintet of Rockband-GH3-Call of Duty 4-Bioshock-Halo 3 will be compelling too - but price will be a limiting factor.
For the record, I'm expecting the middle scenario for each console for all four months - meaning September/October are basically a coin flip. If the top tier scenario is met for each month, I'm going to regret not investing...but I don't think the numbers are impossible either. Still, I'm expecting 3.86 million for Wii, and 2.95 million for 360 over Sept-Dec.
God help us if Wii does 4.7 million and 360 does 3.33 million - that would put the industry well over 20 billion just in the USA I imagine.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
