If its 2nd half 2011 .... seriously guys, Wii HD or whatever the Wii's successor has to be seriously considered too as its completely plausible that by then that system will be out. 

Not necessarily at the exclusion of the 360/PS3, but maybe a full-on three way multi-platform release.

The other thing about the 360/PS3 though to be honest ... good gawd almighty do these platforms stink at moving any kind of hardware that has bright colorful characters let alone Disney characters. 

Banjo-Threeie? Flop. LittleBigPlanet? Should've set up shop on the Wii. Ratchet & Clank PS3? Despite a pretty big ad campaign, poor results. Blue Dragon on the 360? Dead on arrivial in the Western markets. Viva Pinata? Pokemon meets Animal Crossing with 1/1000th of the sales. 

I honestly can't think of game on either the 360 or PS3 that has been a huge hit with a more "colorful" vibe. 

@ soundwave, over 2m for LBP, 1.6m for R & C aint bad, but they aren't massive hardware movers as you say. But Kingdom Hearts is a big game, it will sell at least 3m on PS3 alone, especially with an enlarged JP install base due to FF XIII and V XIII. KH is an established IP, and will move some consoles, and I am sure there is a cross over between FF fans and KH fans

   I often see people say that, but what makes you think that KH3 can only be developed by the usual Kingdom Hearts team? What stops SE from forming a new team to develop a game (with Nomura still being a director) ?

   The way I see it - nothing. They change teams for Final Fantasy, they change teams for Dragon Quest, it can basically be considred a part of their policy to change developers of their key franchises every so often. And after all, they formed a new team just to develop Dissidia, a 2 million+ seller.

@ rei, I think they would at least let Nomura continue working on it, he did create the series, and so SE would probably want him to continue working on it given what a good job he has done. The question is, why would they not want him to work on it

Anyway, Banjo may have been a flop, but LBP sold remarkably well- over 2 million, that's more than Mass Effect, and it'll probably end up higher than BioShock. And it sold better than a lot of "casual" games on the Wii. I hate it when people say LBP would sell better on Wii. LBP would have to be highly gimped to run on Wii.

As for Ratchet and Clank PS3, it launched on an abysmal userbase in a time when the PS3 was failing in sales, and people were predicting it would go the way of the DreamCast (PS3 iz teh doomedz phase 1). 1.5 million in those circumstances is pretty good.

And the PS2 sold Kingdom Hearts, so the PS3 can as well. You can't compare a new IP, a new IP second rate JRPG, a simulation game involving pinatas and two platformers from rather small series to one of the biggest JRPG series around (behind Final Fantasy, and that's about it)

The last installment sold a 3.1 million units on the PS2. And that was on a immense installbase. If it comes to the PS3 and that's a huge, mega, super if. The PS3 has the smallest installbase and doesn't appeal to the youth who would actually buy the game. You know, colorful 'Disney' games.

   The last installment sold 4.5 million and regardless of the system it's on, KH3 will at least do the same (even being a PS3 exclusive)

@Munkeh:

   Like I mentioned above, I would expect him to still be the director of the game regardless of what team is developing it.

I really wonder how many of those LBP copies actually got sold, and how many are collecting dust on store shelves.

Because if you look at the NPD charts, LBP isn't even in the top 20 for PS3 software, and it didn't last long at all on the Japanese or Euro charts either, nor did it have a huge start in any particular territory. 

MGS4 says hi.

Well, 3.69m, with the EU sales not properly tracked, I would bet it is over 4m. The first one sold 5.5m, so we know that people do like this game. We have also seen that you do get declining sales of a franchise through a generation, like GT, so this one should be a good seller.

Now, of course install bases do matter, but as I said, I think there is an overlap between FF fans and KH fans, so after FF XIII and V XIII there should be a decent fanbase, especially in Japan.

Now, as for the "casual" audience, it is certainly not really there yet, but KH is not really a casual game, it is a very good RPG, just with a slightly babyish theme (munny). Sony do have games like EyePet coming, as well as a price cut, which should boost casual hardware sales, so in a year's time, the picture might be completely different