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Forums - Sales - Will The Conduit atomize Halo 3's opening record?

Kantor on 26 May 2009
jlauro said:
Opening week are largely determined by stock in stores (and demand). The amount of stock in stores, especially for a publisher like Sega (Microsoft can break the rules), is largely based on preorders. Preorders would have to be massive for them to produce enough copies in time that they could get in the hands of the consumer the first week.

It should open better than COD:WAW for the wii, and if the game is really good (agreed by both casual FPS and hardcore FPS fans, 90+ metacritic), then it might outsell Halo 3 lifetime just because there are more Wii systems than 360 and could potentially become a system seller. I can see that scenario happening, but only about 20% likely...

Unless we start hearing about midnight launch parties at stores all across the country/world, no way are preorders high enough for that massive of an opening week. If we do start hearing about launch parties, I will up it from 0% likely to 0.6% likely.

You're kidding, right?

Do you know what Halo 3's sales are? And what they are likely to stop at?

12 million for Halo 3 is a pessimistic prediction. You are telling me that a Wii FPS from a no-name developer, with decent advertising, released in the middle of the year, which is a new IP no less, can outsell one of the most heavily hyped and advertised games of all time, published by Microsoft on a console known to sell shooters, which is the sequel to a 6 million seller and an 8 million seller?

No, not 20%. More like 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%. Which is higher than the chance of beating it first week, which is actually 0%.



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Kantor on 26 May 2009

High Voltage and Sega would be thanking their lucky stars if The Conduit did in its lifetime what Halo 3 did in its first week. Even that is EXTREMELY optimistic.



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jlauro on 26 May 2009
Kantor said:
jlauro said:
Opening week are largely determined by stock in stores (and demand). The amount of stock in stores, especially for a publisher like Sega (Microsoft can break the rules), is largely based on preorders. Preorders would have to be massive for them to produce enough copies in time that they could get in the hands of the consumer the first week.

It should open better than COD:WAW for the wii, and if the game is really good (agreed by both casual FPS and hardcore FPS fans, 90+ metacritic), then it might outsell Halo 3 lifetime just because there are more Wii systems than 360 and could potentially become a system seller. I can see that scenario happening, but only about 20% likely...

Unless we start hearing about midnight launch parties at stores all across the country/world, no way are preorders high enough for that massive of an opening week. If we do start hearing about launch parties, I will up it from 0% likely to 0.6% likely.

You're kidding, right?

Do you know what Halo 3's sales are? And what they are likely to stop at?

12 million for Halo 3 is a pessimistic prediction. You are telling me that a Wii FPS from a no-name developer, with decent advertising, released in the middle of the year, which is a new IP no less, can outsell one of the most heavily hyped and advertised games of all time, published by Microsoft on a console known to sell shooters, which is the sequel to a 6 million seller and an 8 million seller?

No, not 20%. More like 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%. Which is higher than the chance of beating it first week, which is actually 0%.

Yes I do know what Halo 3's sales are. I put that 20% IFF the game is really good and scores 90+ on metacritic.  So that's not really 20% at this time as we don't know how well or poorly it will do in the eyes of the professional critics.

Do you know how many more Wiis have been sold than the 360?  Do you know how much less competition there is for a good FPS on the Wii compared to the 360?  Do you know that they keep selling more Wiis than 360s and so the potential market for The Conduit is growing at a faster pace than the potential market for the 360?



tombi123 on 26 May 2009
hsrob said:
tombi123 said:
This is a very interesting thread. A hyped 'hardcore' game is coming out for the Wii, and some Wii fans have unrealistic sales expectations. It seems that it isn't just Sony and MS fans who hype games up and have unrealistic expectations.

This shows that fans of a particular console are no worse than fans of a different console.

I agree with your final statement but let's be clear on the fact that this claim has been made by a singular Wii-fan and not a single other person has agreed with him.


Well PS3 fans have been labelled as hyping game after game as being the PS3's 'savior'. When in fact it is just one or two people making threads like 'LBP to sell 10M lifetime', 'GTA4 will kill the Wii', which gives PS3 fans this image.

 



O-D-C on 26 May 2009

nay



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slowmo on 26 May 2009

Sorry I skipped 10 pages so not sure if my opinion is shared by the majority here /sarcasm.

My answer is no.



Halo_Reach on 18 September 2009
TheSoldier00 said:

3,815,444

This is the number that The Conduit needs to transcend within 5 days in order to become the fastest-selling console first-person shooter in the history of mankind.

Do you think it can make it? I would not be surprised if it were to achieve it - Wii games sell tremendously well these days and it's no surprise they're dominating all software charts - the games on the other consoles often don't stand a chance - that is something incredible Nintendo has accomplished.

As stated, I think this one can do really good - it's an anticipated first-person shooter on the crazy monster console that is the Nintendo Wii.

A cool guy with glasses - will he be the new king?

 

this is a huge lol of a thread and anyone that thought conduit would is a sheep



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