There already is a clear cut winner - it's Nintendo.

When Microsoft and Sony unveil "motion controllers" (as they almost certainly will but I hope they don't) thwy won't be able to pretend that the race isn't with the big N anymore.

There won't be a single console that unifies the market, a definitive gaming device. All the platforms are trying to diversify (Wii trying to build up to the core, PS360 trying to build out to the families), but no-one is seeing complete success

In terms of sales, money, and industry influence, the clear winner is Nintendo. The only thing they lack is the heartfelt support of the core gaming community, and we're slowly learning just how little that matters in the big picture.

I don't know what exactly Microsoft's goals were. Clearly the first Xbox was just an effort to get their foot in the door, and could definitely be called a success because it generated great awareness and beat the industry's oldest veteran at their own game (equally obvious that they didn't care how much money they lost in the effort). If their goal with the 360 was to become the new industry leader and standard-bearer, they have failed, except where it comes to the core gamer. Basically Microsoft mastered the terms of the industry too late, and the industry shifted just when they could have dominated it all.

Sony is definitely down. I still have great doubts that PS3 had any impact on Blu-Ray's format war victory. A direct courtship of the movie studios was responsible for that.

Wii wins everything... apart from the top rated games.

Wii won a long time ago.

Nintendo sells the most hardware and software. How clear cut can we get?

i am going to say, everyone is a winner.

Handheld hardware marketshare: Nintendo.
Console hardware marketshare: Nintendo.
Handheld 1st party software: Nintendo.
Console 1st party software: Nintendo.
Handheld 3rd party software: Nintendo.
Console 3rd party software: Nintendo.
Revenue: Nintendo.
Profit: Nintendo.
Most exclusives: Nintendo.
Most downloadable games: Nintendo.
Most influential controller designs: Nintendo.
Most ways to play games: Nintendo.
Most female fans: Nintendo.
On the most boats: Nintendo.
In the most rehab clinics: Nintendo.
In the most children's dreams: Nintendo.

What other shades of grey are there?

that pretty much sums it up.

there won't be a stand out console like the ps2, but all things considered, the Wii is probably en route to solidifying an indomitable record. They own 48% of the gaming market on the console side and their first party games sell in the millions almost guaranteed.