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Forums - Sales Discussion - My deeply divisive prediction #1: 360>PS3 10 weeks holidays, with $299 PS3

txrattlesnake on 19 May 2009
Squilliam said:
txrattlesnake said:
Squilliam said:
^ They have the games, they just haven't talked about them yet.

 

     I think my first prediction in this thread is that no xbox holiday '09 game will result in the sale of as many 360s as  Gears of War 2 did during the holiday of '08 meanwhile games like Uncharted 2, GT5, and FFXIII in Japan will result in many more PS3 sales regardless of price cuts than LBP, Resistance 2, and Valkyrie Chronicles did the last holiday season.

How can you make a prediction like that when you have no idea how many Xbox 360s Gears 2 sold for Microsoft nor how many PS3sLBP, R2 and VC sold for Sony? Thats really no prediction at all.

 

Gears of War 2 sold 2.4 million copies in its first two weeks last year.  And, I would say other than the pricecuts even though its sales were frontloaded it was probably the only reason the 360 sold so well Holiday '08.  So, I think without Gears 2 last year, the 360 would have sold half the number of consoles it did during the holidays.

On the other hand, even at its current price, with FFXIII, GT5, and Uncharted 2, one can assume that the PS3 would have sold twice the amount of consoles it sold during holidays '08 with those games.

 



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yo_john117 on 19 May 2009
PS3beats360 said:
yo_john117 said:
PS3beats360 said:
It will be a lot difference this time around Squilliam and all the logical sales analysts all know it.
PS3 will outsell XBox 360 2 to 1 worldwide in weekly console sales when it reaches the $299 price tag, assuming MS sticks with the same prices for their 360 SKUs. PS3 will outsell XBox 360 my a small margin in worldwide in weekly console sales if PS3 reaches the $299 price point and MS responds with $50 price drops on all of their XBox 360 SKUs. Either way it will be PS3 outselling XBox 360 when PS3 price is $299. PS3 will never be outsold eever again whenPS3 reaches $299 price point.

lol, looks like your post has more assumptions then any prediction i have ever seen.  I highly doubt anything in your post will happen.

While your at it, why don't you add in there that you think the PS3 will outsell the Wii when this said pricecut comes out.

 

 

The final third of this year will more than likely be the reverse of last year. PS3 will be outselling XBox 360 and claw back around 2 to 3 million sales on XBox 360 and narrow the gap down to below 6 million. I would not say PS3 will get close to the Wii because Wii sells to casual gamers and captures more of the market around 70%. PS3 and Xbox 360 mainly sell to the hardcore market which is around 30% of the total market. Last year XBox 360 outsold PS3 every week from 1 September 2008 to 31 December 2008 by around 2.5 million consoles. PS3 should be able to reverse this and with PS3 price cuts PS3 will outsell the XBox 360 between 2 to 3 million units in the last four months of 2009. PS3 has amuch stronger exclusive game line up than the XBox 360 in second half of 2009.

Hey you interested in making a bet regarding the bolded red in your original post?

 



PS3beats360 on 19 May 2009
yo_john117 said:
PS3beats360 said:
yo_john117 said:
PS3beats360 said:
It will be a lot difference this time around Squilliam and all the logical sales analysts all know it.
PS3 will outsell XBox 360 2 to 1 worldwide in weekly console sales when it reaches the $299 price tag, assuming MS sticks with the same prices for their 360 SKUs. PS3 will outsell XBox 360 my a small margin in worldwide in weekly console sales if PS3 reaches the $299 price point and MS responds with $50 price drops on all of their XBox 360 SKUs. Either way it will be PS3 outselling XBox 360 when PS3 price is $299. PS3 will never be outsold eever again whenPS3 reaches $299 price point.

lol, looks like your post has more assumptions then any prediction i have ever seen.  I highly doubt anything in your post will happen.

While your at it, why don't you add in there that you think the PS3 will outsell the Wii when this said pricecut comes out.

 

 

The final third of this year will more than likely be the reverse of last year. PS3 will be outselling XBox 360 and claw back around 2 to 3 million sales on XBox 360 and narrow the gap down to below 6 million. I would not say PS3 will get close to the Wii because Wii sells to casual gamers and captures more of the market around 70%. PS3 and Xbox 360 mainly sell to the hardcore market which is around 30% of the total market. Last year XBox 360 outsold PS3 every week from 1 September 2008 to 31 December 2008 by around 2.5 million consoles. PS3 should be able to reverse this and with PS3 price cuts PS3 will outsell the XBox 360 between 2 to 3 million units in the last four months of 2009. PS3 has amuch stronger exclusive game line up than the XBox 360 in second half of 2009.

Hey you interested in making a bet regarding the bolded red in your original post?

 

If I lose my bet I will disappear from this site for 30 days if PS3 loses to 360 when PS3 is at $299 price point. I would like a mod to ban me for 30 days if I lose out on the bet. Bet is in the last line of my sig



txrattlesnake on 19 May 2009
kowenicki said:
@rattlesnake

thats just ridiculous... to say that without Gears 2 it would have sold half the number of consoles.

I cant prove its wrong and you cant prove its right... but it seems like a ludicrous proposition to me.

 

      Of all the exclusive retail games on 360 last year the only that turned out to turn out the way it was supposed to with projected ideas about what its quality would be and actual quality of the game after it had gone gold and received reviews from all of the leading places was Gears 2.  It accounted for a large percentage of 360 sales last year and its word of mouth played a psychological part in the purchase of 360 even by those that didn't buy Gears 2.



yo_john117 on 19 May 2009
PS3beats360 said:
yo_john117 said:
PS3beats360 said:
yo_john117 said:
PS3beats360 said:
It will be a lot difference this time around Squilliam and all the logical sales analysts all know it.
PS3 will outsell XBox 360 2 to 1 worldwide in weekly console sales when it reaches the $299 price tag, assuming MS sticks with the same prices for their 360 SKUs. PS3 will outsell XBox 360 my a small margin in worldwide in weekly console sales if PS3 reaches the $299 price point and MS responds with $50 price drops on all of their XBox 360 SKUs. Either way it will be PS3 outselling XBox 360 when PS3 price is $299. PS3 will never be outsold eever again whenPS3 reaches $299 price point.

lol, looks like your post has more assumptions then any prediction i have ever seen.  I highly doubt anything in your post will happen.

While your at it, why don't you add in there that you think the PS3 will outsell the Wii when this said pricecut comes out.

 

 

The final third of this year will more than likely be the reverse of last year. PS3 will be outselling XBox 360 and claw back around 2 to 3 million sales on XBox 360 and narrow the gap down to below 6 million. I would not say PS3 will get close to the Wii because Wii sells to casual gamers and captures more of the market around 70%. PS3 and Xbox 360 mainly sell to the hardcore market which is around 30% of the total market. Last year XBox 360 outsold PS3 every week from 1 September 2008 to 31 December 2008 by around 2.5 million consoles. PS3 should be able to reverse this and with PS3 price cuts PS3 will outsell the XBox 360 between 2 to 3 million units in the last four months of 2009. PS3 has amuch stronger exclusive game line up than the XBox 360 in second half of 2009.

Hey you interested in making a bet regarding the bolded red in your original post?

 

If I lose my bet I will disappear from this site for 30 days if PS3 loses to 360 when PS3 is at $299 price point. I would like a mod to ban me for 30 days if I lose out on the bet. Bet is in the red bolded part in my sig

Wow thats pretty extreme bet...i'm thinkin something less severe like being able to control the losers sig for a between a week to a month.

So What do you want the terms and conditions to be?

I'm thinking that we should limit this bet to one full year after the PS3 gets the $299 price point.  for example if the PS3 outsells the 360 each and every week after it gets to $299 then you win, if the 360 outsells the PS3 in even one week during that one year, then i win.  And when i say the 360 has to outsell the PS3i mean it has to do it on a worldwide basis.

 

 



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PS3beats360 on 19 May 2009
yo_john117 said:
PS3beats360 said:
yo_john117 said:
PS3beats360 said:
yo_john117 said:
PS3beats360 said:
It will be a lot difference this time around Squilliam and all the logical sales analysts all know it.
PS3 will outsell XBox 360 2 to 1 worldwide in weekly console sales when it reaches the $299 price tag, assuming MS sticks with the same prices for their 360 SKUs. PS3 will outsell XBox 360 my a small margin in worldwide in weekly console sales if PS3 reaches the $299 price point and MS responds with $50 price drops on all of their XBox 360 SKUs. Either way it will be PS3 outselling XBox 360 when PS3 price is $299. PS3 will never be outsold eever again whenPS3 reaches $299 price point.

lol, looks like your post has more assumptions then any prediction i have ever seen.  I highly doubt anything in your post will happen.

While your at it, why don't you add in there that you think the PS3 will outsell the Wii when this said pricecut comes out.

 

 

The final third of this year will more than likely be the reverse of last year. PS3 will be outselling XBox 360 and claw back around 2 to 3 million sales on XBox 360 and narrow the gap down to below 6 million. I would not say PS3 will get close to the Wii because Wii sells to casual gamers and captures more of the market around 70%. PS3 and Xbox 360 mainly sell to the hardcore market which is around 30% of the total market. Last year XBox 360 outsold PS3 every week from 1 September 2008 to 31 December 2008 by around 2.5 million consoles. PS3 should be able to reverse this and with PS3 price cuts PS3 will outsell the XBox 360 between 2 to 3 million units in the last four months of 2009. PS3 has amuch stronger exclusive game line up than the XBox 360 in second half of 2009.

Hey you interested in making a bet regarding the bolded red in your original post?

 

If I lose my bet I will disappear from this site for 30 days if PS3 loses to 360 when PS3 is at $299 price point. I would like a mod to ban me for 30 days if I lose out on the bet. Bet is in the red bolded part in my sig

Wow thats pretty extreme bet...i'm thinkin something less severe like being able to control the losers sig for a between a week to a month.

So What do you want the terms and conditions to be?

I'm thinking that we should limit this bet to one full year after the PS3 gets the $299 price point.  for example if the PS3 outsells the 360 each and every week after it gets to $299 then you win, if the 360 outsells the PS3 in even one week during that one year, then i win.  And when i say the 360 has to outsell the PS3i mean it has to do it on a worldwide basis.

 

 


Ok up to a year sounds reasonable it could go either way. Anyway avatar control for a month. The winner picks the losers avatar which must be used for a whole month.

yo_john117 on 19 May 2009
PS3beats360 said:
yo_john117 said:
PS3beats360 said:
yo_john117 said:
PS3beats360 said:
yo_john117 said:
PS3beats360 said:
It will be a lot difference this time around Squilliam and all the logical sales analysts all know it.
PS3 will outsell XBox 360 2 to 1 worldwide in weekly console sales when it reaches the $299 price tag, assuming MS sticks with the same prices for their 360 SKUs. PS3 will outsell XBox 360 my a small margin in worldwide in weekly console sales if PS3 reaches the $299 price point and MS responds with $50 price drops on all of their XBox 360 SKUs. Either way it will be PS3 outselling XBox 360 when PS3 price is $299. PS3 will never be outsold eever again whenPS3 reaches $299 price point.

lol, looks like your post has more assumptions then any prediction i have ever seen.  I highly doubt anything in your post will happen.

While your at it, why don't you add in there that you think the PS3 will outsell the Wii when this said pricecut comes out.

 

 

The final third of this year will more than likely be the reverse of last year. PS3 will be outselling XBox 360 and claw back around 2 to 3 million sales on XBox 360 and narrow the gap down to below 6 million. I would not say PS3 will get close to the Wii because Wii sells to casual gamers and captures more of the market around 70%. PS3 and Xbox 360 mainly sell to the hardcore market which is around 30% of the total market. Last year XBox 360 outsold PS3 every week from 1 September 2008 to 31 December 2008 by around 2.5 million consoles. PS3 should be able to reverse this and with PS3 price cuts PS3 will outsell the XBox 360 between 2 to 3 million units in the last four months of 2009. PS3 has amuch stronger exclusive game line up than the XBox 360 in second half of 2009.

Hey you interested in making a bet regarding the bolded red in your original post?

 

If I lose my bet I will disappear from this site for 30 days if PS3 loses to 360 when PS3 is at $299 price point. I would like a mod to ban me for 30 days if I lose out on the bet. Bet is in the red bolded part in my sig

Wow thats pretty extreme bet...i'm thinkin something less severe like being able to control the losers sig for a between a week to a month.

So What do you want the terms and conditions to be?

I'm thinking that we should limit this bet to one full year after the PS3 gets the $299 price point.  for example if the PS3 outsells the 360 each and every week after it gets to $299 then you win, if the 360 outsells the PS3 in even one week during that one year, then i win.  And when i say the 360 has to outsell the PS3i mean it has to do it on a worldwide basis.

 

 

 

Ok up to a year sounds reasonable it could go either way. Anyway avatar control for a month. The winner picks the losers avatar which must be used for a whole month.

Sounds fair to me...now lets put a link to this post in our sigs for all to see.

 



jpcsfsd on 19 May 2009

Wouldn't surprise me if it was another massacre like last christmas. America dictates the winner or losers and America loves the 360.



goddog on 19 May 2009
yo_john117 said:
Just a question...how many of your predictions have come true??

 

ive known of 2 of his predictions to come true, though i dont know how many he has made.   both were about sales though and both seemed like a bit of a stretch at the time..... Ive been here since 07 if that  gives you an idea 



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Kantor on 19 May 2009
goddog said:
yo_john117 said:
Just a question...how many of your predictions have come true??

 

ive known of 2 of his predictions to come true, though i dont know how many he has made.   both were about sales though and both seemed like a bit of a stretch at the time..... Ive been here since 07 if that  gives you an idea 

Correct: 360 > PS3 in Q3-Q4 2008

360 > PS3 in Q1-Q2 2009

Incorrect: 360 will be above 200k every week in 2009 (he claims he was drunk)

Pending: 360 > PS3 in 10 weeks of holiday with $299 PS3, which looks on track to be false.

Of course, everyone doubted his first prediction, but that was because of a lack of knowledge. In this case, Squilliam has so kindly provided a specific scenario, so we can call him delusional in peace



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective