Lack of games = lack of sales.

Correct, but that's cherry picking. That was GTA4 week, when Nintendo artificially dumped a huge amount of Wii stock to sell 741k (which is more they can even produce in a week):

http://vgchartz.com/weekly.php?date=39572&console=&maker=

The PS3 sold 272k that week, and the 360 sold 227k. So they'll be down by similar percentages, which doesn't mean anything given the context.

How many wii iz doomz threads do we need?

The quarter is still young....

It most likely will be down YoY 40 to 50% 2 more weeks in May alone...

I will bet you all on December 31st, 2009 Wii will sell 3 million more units than they did in 2008 and 1 million more than ps3 and xbox 360 combine.

Those will stabilize sales yes and maybe boost them a little but invert the tendency ? Doubtfull for Japan.

I don't think a console ever pull off reverting a 18 months sales slowdown to have sales surge again afterward...

Lets not forget than in 2008 ( the year of SSBB, MK Wii, Wii fit ( released at end of 2007 in Japan)) the Wii sold less hardware there than in 2007....

Those games without a price cut won't help make up for the slowdown in the first 5 months of 2009.( they will push the Wii past the PS3 but I don't expect the PS3 to rock much in Japan until FFXIII...).

PS : I'm not sure Samurai Warrior 3 will actually boost hardware much because Koei is releasing so many Dynasty Warrior spin off that you can get 'all you can eat' Dynasty Warrior without needing to purchase a Wii....

And without knowing how good Dynasty Warrior 6 Empires will be, so far the only worthy Dynasty Warrior released in the last year has been Dynasty Warrior Gundam 2 ( the only one that actually was original..).

Who is jacob?

I just looked at May-June 08 sales and they were quite weird indeed. Many weeks of sales above production level, looks like they stockpiled for the MK:Wii post-launch and to counter GTA4 hype. So your prediction could actually be right, I didn't remember that before.

But this year, the moment of truth for the Wii is the WM+ launch and MH3 in Japan, where Wii sales really suck now (as do the other home consoles)... I don't think it's likely that the Wii will start selling out again for a long period of time, but it could give the Wii a big boost. If it doesn't, that's the point where we may have to worry.

So basically, you're giving yourself a pat on the back for realizing that the Wii had a barrage of massive system sellers in Q2 '08, and no corresponding software lineup in Q2 '09, while betting that some people wouldn't be able to catch that fact.

Oh, you are so clever.

I still think it won't sell over 25 millions.

I think most people, Nintendo included, are ignoring the fact that now that Wii are in stock at every retailer the purchasing patterns will change and noone has a clue what the new patterns will be.......( and Nintendo can't just make a big shipment like they used to do to boost sales to the level they want them to be at...)..

Up to Q1 2009 Nintendo actually had some means to control Wii sales.

Now it's mostly in the hands of the consumer...