The numbers I find the most interesting at the moment, are the marketshare figures for all consoles.

After a reasonable rise (associated with a launch), the PS3 has dipped a little recently.

The cross-over meant that the 360/Wii traded market share values - the Wii now sitting around 42%, and the 360 around 40% (with the PS3 having the rest).

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Same applies to the DS/PSP war. The DS struggled to hit the 2:1 sales ratio (66.6% vrs 33.3%) - and once it did, it sort of exploded - with the PSP share now dropping to its lowest (ever?) level - 31.8% at the moment.

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Now - what is interesting, is that these trends *will not* continue. The PSP slim will ensure that the PSP picks up marketshare from the DS - and the Xmas period ensures that the Wii will not maintain its current domination (Wii >= 360 + PS3)

(note that the comparison for share is ONLY being made amoung these consoles - no GBA, no GC, no XBOX, no PS2, etc...).

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Predictions for where the Wii/DS will top out this year - and where all consoles will end up at the end of '07 (1st Jan '08):

 - Wii (max): 44.7% (around mid-November)

 - DS (max): 68.3% (now) - it will struggle to outsell the new PSP by 2:1 in the coming months.

End of year:

 - Wii: 44%

 - 360: 37%

 - PS3: 19%

 - DS: 65%

 - PSP: 35%

I read the title and thought "Oh noes, another Soriku thread"... hehe

I say that according to current trends it would be by the end of the year:

Wii: 47%
360: 35%
PS3: 18%

Handhelds... I don't know.

Your numbers seem very well thought out, Shams. What do you think about the Wii and Playstation 3's holiday sales? With Nintendo's hording and Sony's new sale after the price drop, both systems should do pretty good.

Nintendo Wii: 41.8%
Xbox 360: 34.8 %
Playstation 3: 23.2 %

Solid Market share for all three consoles.

Wii + DS: 120/200% by new year.

I don't see a lot of surprises this Xmas.

The real battle will now begin 1st qrt '08 - this is where Ninty took the market by the scruff of its neck in '07. Sony know they can't afford for this to happen again, so they are gearing up for a non-Xmas rush fight. Games, price cut, lots of hardware.

I think your PS3 is too high. If the 360 gets to 15m (and its almost at 11m now), that means the PS3 will reach 10m this year. Not gonna happen - still 7/8m in my opinion.

But if the 360 flunks (not likely with Halo around the corner? Or is it?), and only reaches 13.5m (2.7m sold WW for remainder of year), that makes 9m for the PS3 - which I still think is too high.

Its a valid prediction though - we'll see how it all goes :)

Either way, its going to be a huge, bumper Xmas for games - sales will go through the roof, but I think the sheer NUMBER of titles available will mean that many titles don't reach their sales potential. Sales will also carry on into the start of '08.

I'm not sure about that. When are you expecting a price cut from Sony?

15m for the 360 and 10m for the PS3 is exactly what I predicted. I agree that my PS3 numbers are very ambitious; however, the prediction for these numbers are more of a theory rather than a logical breakdown, as I think there will be a price drop in both Japan and Europ. Thus, increasing the demand for the PS3 in time for the holiday season. If I was to bet on what the PS3 would sale by years end, I would say in between 8.5m-9.1m. The 10m number depends on price drops in Europ and Japan.

I doubt the 360 will only pull of 13.5m. As of right now, 15m seems the most likely.

Most of these consles should have large enough install bases to support the large amount of games coming. I know for sure the Wii's install base will be large enough.

I'm afraid I have to disagree completely with your statement regarding a sales boost from the PSP Slim, shams. It's not nearly enough of a re-working of the system to really bump up the sales.

I believe the DS will cross 70% marketshare, and the Wii will hit 50%, both before the end of the year.

Good time for an update:

1/ The PSP slim release hasn't had a huge impact on DS/PSP marketshare - probably less than I thought. The DS may even cross back to #1 hardware this week in Japan (giving the PSP 3 weeks ahead?).

Market share is now DS (67.9%) : PSP (32.1%). The PSP is up from 31.8% (before the PSP slim was released). That's a whopping 0.3% improvement in marketshare!

2/ Improved sales of the 360 have seen it claw some marketshare back from the PS3. Share for the Wii is around steady:

Wii (42.6%)

360 (40.4%)

PS3 (17.0%)

(Wii is up from around 42%, 360 is up from around 40%, PS3 has lost 0.5% or so)

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Probably the biggest conclusion so far, is that the marketshare from 3 weeks ago - has barely changed. Will review again in a month and see what has happened.