Predict maximum marketshare for the Wii & DS ('07 edition)

[shams]

grandmaster192 said:
Your numbers seem very well thought out, Shams. What do you think about the Wii and Playstation 3's holiday sales? With Nintendo's hording and Sony's new sale after the price drop, both systems should do pretty good.

Nintendo Wii: 41.8%
Xbox 360: 34.8 %
Playstation 3: 23.2 %

Solid Market share for all three consoles.

I don't see a lot of surprises this Xmas.

The real battle will now begin 1st qrt '08 - this is where Ninty took the market by the scruff of its neck in '07. Sony know they can't afford for this to happen again, so they are gearing up for a non-Xmas rush fight. Games, price cut, lots of hardware.

I think your PS3 is too high. If the 360 gets to 15m (and its almost at 11m now), that means the PS3 will reach 10m this year. Not gonna happen - still 7/8m in my opinion.

But if the 360 flunks (not likely with Halo around the corner? Or is it?), and only reaches 13.5m (2.7m sold WW for remainder of year), that makes 9m for the PS3 - which I still think is too high.

Its a valid prediction though - we'll see how it all goes :)

Either way, its going to be a huge, bumper Xmas for games - sales will go through the roof, but I think the sheer NUMBER of titles available will mean that many titles don't reach their sales potential. Sales will also carry on into the start of '08.