One thing I noticed when checking the comparative sales graphs between the Xbox 360 and PS3 is that the Xbox 360 seems to do extremely well during the holidays, so it can do really good numbers like with the 2007, 2008 holiday seasons and then during the year the sales will die relative to the PS3. The current PS3 vs 360 gap in relative terms is nothing compared to the gap between them during the last holiday season and one would have expected it be greater.

Whilst on the other hand PS3 sales aren't as awe inspiring during the holiday season but the console sells extremely steadily during the year as seen after the price cut during 2007 and 2008 and even 2009 but the holiday season sales aren't as specacular as the Xbox 360s even say after that one big price cut with the introduction of the 40GB PS3.

Check it out yourself.

So during the steady Q1-Q3 timeframe the PS3 would do better than the Xbox 360 relative to the performance of the previous holiday season and the Xbox 360 would do better than the PS3 in Q4 relative to the performance of the previous 3 quarters.

The reason why I think this happens is that during the year when sales are much slower and more steady, the proportion of people purchasing either an Xbox 360 or PS3 who know they want a particular brand are higher for the PS3 than the Xbox 360 due to the legacy of the stronger brand and somewhat the poor reputation for reliability of the Xbox 360. This causes sales to favour the PS3 with the smaller quantity of "swing purchasers" who favour say the lower price of the Xbox 360 playing a smaller role.

During the Q4 Christmas rush, the opposite happens. There are a higher proportion of less brand concious and perhaps more price/value concious people who buy a console for themselves or as a gift for others. Like for example during the last Christmas the Xbox 360 Arcade had huge sales, whilst during the year the proportion of Pro/Elite sales rise and the average sale price for the Xbox 360 is higher.

Possible scenario,Q4 $100 price cut PS3 worldwide with $50 cut Xbox 360:

If you look back to the 2007 price cut where the PS3 price was slashed by $200, sales did not immediately reflect the lower price point, possible due to reasons listed above but the PS3 kinda crushed the Xbox 360 during Q1-3 2008. I would say that the relative PS3 to Xbox 360 sales for the holiday season would be similar due to the Xbox 360 Arcade being that much cheaper, but during the following year the PS3 would absolutely crush the Xbox 360 in sales once again - essentially a repeat of the 2007 price cut, except this time the weekly lead in 2010 could be unassailable and possibly considered permament under this scenario.

Great points, I was going to make a thread to get peoples opinions on what pricecut was more effective Xbox 08 or PS3 07.

This christmas I feel that tables won't turn like they have been and the 360 will rule once again. Sony's recent comments lead me to believe no pricecut is coming this year whatsoever. Everything points to no price drop, nothing points TO a price drop.

I really can't see Microsoft taking their eye off the ball now, hence why I think a BIG E3 is planned.

EDIT - Also with Microsoft looking to win each christmas, this is where I think they will bulk up the lead each year.

They were both effective, but they made their impact during different times of the year if im right. I was thinking about why Sony released their big games throughout the year, and at the same time I was thinking about why the two were relatively close now and yet the difference during the holidays was so much higher. Essentially I needed to think about why half priced worked so well in Q4 but no so much in Q1-3 and in fact why the average selling price of the Xbox 360 was higher during the year than during the holidays.

Ah, explaining the drop-off rates. I think you nailed it, it seems like a very reasonable theory.

Yay!!! I wrote lots of words and no one is angry with me so far...

I'm trying to determine whether you're being serious.

If you are, nice thread

Although the PS3 hardly "crushed" the 360 in weekly sales in Q1-3 2008; the gap was similar to the 360-PS3 gap in 2009. Perhaps a little more, only because Sony always has the lead on Microsoft in Japan, so it was higher America + higher Europe + higher Japan, as opposed to higher NA + higher Europe -lower Japan.

This is incredibly interesting, and I think you nailed it.

I have one follow-up question though: Is it like this everywhere?

By a quick check, it seems that it is only like this is only the case in Americas.

That leads to another question: Could Americas be the largest during the holidays, but smaller during Q1-Q3?

In Q1-Q3 2008, there was sold ~ 10% more in Others.

In Q4 2008, there was sold ~ 10% more in Americas.

That's a rather large turnaround.

Now, there is of course a matter of cause and effect here. It could be that it sells more in Americas because the X360 sells more then. Still, I believe that part of the reason the X360 is selling better in the holidays is that Christmas is bigger in America than in the rest of the world. The data sure seems to back that up.

They won't bother with a price cut if Sony don't do the same first: it's sacrificing profitability for no reason.

And there won't be any megaton system selling software; Halo 3 ODST will mainly appeal to people who bought the 360 for Halo 3.

price cut in NA ? price cut in Japan ? double one in PAL ?

also the xbox360 is cheaper so it may benefit from the "impulsif customer", like the random mother that wants a cheap console for her family...

edit : well that is basically what u have said ...

Kantor said: I'm trying to determine whether you're being serious. If you are, nice thread Although the PS3 hardly "crushed" the 360 in weekly sales in Q1-3 2008; the gap was similar to the 360-PS3 gap in 2009. Perhaps a little more, only because Sony always has the lead on Microsoft in Japan, so it was higher America + higher Europe + higher Japan, as opposed to higher NA + higher Europe -lower Japan.

 Furthermore, the Xbox 360 has had its best performance relative to the PS3 in the last time period it has had ever.