agreed

Conduit will not sell hardware.

MH3 will but only in Japan and not enough to make a huge dent in overall ww numbers.

WSR I don't think will move hardware directly either, although WM+ may. It'll fall more on games like Virtua Tennis, Tiger Woods, Red Steel 2, Jedi lightsaber game and whatever else comes out that uses the Wii in the way we all originally envisioned to entice people to buy Wiis (or at least, pull them back out of their closets).

If NoA continues to play the stupid with the policy "we don't bring the games here, and we are fine with the sales", 50% will not happen.

Keep wishing :P.

No one also ever said it will get the PS2's 70% share, because the Wii has better competition :P.  As for a price cut, I've seen many people wanting this, but as it said before, Sony can't really afford one now with out taking even more losses (then it already has). 

Microsoft on the other hand probably could do a price cut, plus with the Halo 3 Elite Bundle this May, it can steal even more of the market share away. 

I think it's MS that is stopping Nintendo more than Sony.

why? I don't support their strategy, but the kind of games they are rejecting will have extraordinarily little impact on sales. Disaster flopped horribly, and Fatal Frame IV was never that big anyway.

Even if their impact are minimal, are games that interest to the market that they must achieve for now ("hardcore blablabla"), if they don't show the minimal interest in bring this kind of game here, why others must assume that is a safe bet?

To be honest,I don't think Wii Sports Resort will push hardware.I mean,any1 dat didn't want a wii bcuz of games like wii sports wouldn't want one bcuz of WSR.I think MH3,The Conduit,Punch-Out,Silent Hill, Muramasa,Zelda Wii,Red Steel2,Spyborgs,TMNT Smash-Up,etc will boost hardware as those who avoided the wii before based on "No hardcore games!" will change their mind looking at these exclusives.HotD Overkill,Madworld,Deadly Creatures & Tenchu are already out(though not boosting hardware sales YET!).
When U know that most good 3rd party games on PS360 can also be gotten on a PC,but the same can't be said about the wii,the hardcore wii games might boost the sales more than the casual,as the casual are already saturated.

No,
WM+ and Wii Sports Resort, will possibly do it.

No. Last year Wii's sales were dependant on supply, this year things have changed and now sales depend on demand. The wii is no longer in a dry slump, it has turned into a trend now, and the Wii is trending negatively and looks to be so until the 2nd half.

Demand is greatly down YoY as there's no renewed interest for people to buy Wii's. All Nintendo will release in the West for this 1st half were games that weren't even pushed with ads or simply last gen ports. Excitebots bombed, the NPC games are doing poorly. Punch-Out is the next hit Nintendo can have in their hands but with their recent releases I'm not that optimist anymore about how hard they can be pushing it.

I guess it's heart breaking for the guys at Monster Games to see their 2 year project sent to die like that, without ads or anything. How is that an incentive to other devs?

But on the sales side, Wii sales will be down for the first half about 1 - 2 million compared to 2008, and with a higher supply that is. This week was the worst week since 2007 for the Wii and back then Wii was supply constrained. NoA is making a terrible job by focusing mostly on new gamers. They keep on distancing themselves from the more traditional gamer as time passes by and that is not good at all, since that is not part of the Blue Ocean strategy.

It will depend on marketing for WSR. If Nintendo knows that they are doing, they will ensure that the game gets mention on talk shows and other lifestyle programmes and articles in NA. That will ensure general awareness of the Wii and cause more people to come.