2 weeks ago, it lost 0.1 percent, down to 48.8%, which I only knew about because of that one dude's "Wii is doomed, losing marketshare post. Around Thursday of last week I noticed it was back to 48.9%, and just today saw it was at 48.7%. Apparently the numbers fluctuated quite a bit.

So how long would the Wii have outsell the HD Twins combined in order to push it to 50% marketshare? I'm sure by how much it outsells them would be a contributing factor, but... Can anyone do this math? Let's say the Wii outsells the HD Twins for the rest of the year by 50k units. How long would it take to reach 50% market share?

Currently the PS360 is outselling the Wii by 2.6 million

So 50,000 units x 52 weeks = 2.6 million, so the Wii would have to outsell both the HD consoles for 1 year by 50K to surpass them

@ Kenology )

after 1 year (52 weeks) it'd be exactly at 50%

^^^ If my math is right, which isn't a frequent thing, the Wii has to sell double the amount of PS3 + XB360 units to gain %1, on a monthly system. To simplify, If W > 2(P+X), then add 1% every 30 days.

The only time that Nintendo comes close to matching this formula is in the Christmas holiday season. So, in theory, they need 1.3% to make the 50% mark, or roughly 1 month and a week of them matching the formula. I think this might happen by January 2010, granted that Nintendo provides a solid Christmas season lineup. Remember, we still have yet to see the Wii have a price cut yet, and we're only half a year shy of its 3 year mark.

It is an extreme math.

Gaining 1% in market share just in one month is just insane.

Was someone said above, if the Wii outsells by 50K the PS3 and 360 combined it will have 50% market share by the end of the year.

But the market isn't that constant. I bet that Wii sales will get insane starting at this summer with Wii Sports Resort and 360 can see a good month and a half boost due to Halo 3: ODST.

I expect it to have the 50% market share even sooner than the Holiday season.

Wow, thanks guys. Some mathematicians in here. I didn't even know where to begin.

There was an adjustment in january or somethin when Nintendo released their official year end numbers and it turned out Vgchartz had the Wii at roughly 1.5 million over total, official shipped numbers lt in sales to end users.
It lost over half a percent there alone.

I had a start; I was labeling my variables.

W = Wii

P = PS3

X = X360

Then I gave up