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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analysis of "long-term" US software sales...

Now that the recent assault on the US sales charts is underway, everyone seems to be getting caught up in the "classic" error - putting too much emphasis on 1st-week sales.

To that end, based on the current weekly chart - I will list and rank any titles that meet the following criteria:

 - have been released at least 30 weeks ago
 -  (or)  have sold at least 2m units

 - (and) are currently listed in top 100 - in this chart: http://www.vgchartz.com/aweekly.php?date=39334
 - (and) are not "heavy" pack-in titles (i.e. Wii Sports will be ignored)

...

Wii Play
Nintendo3084,9582,263,966

Pokemon Diamond / Pearl
Nintendo2051,8073,627,711

Guitar Hero II
Activision4437,4313,104,678

Nintendogs
Nintendo10733,4755,549,270

 
New Super Mario Bros
Nintendo6919,9283,107,890

 
Tom Clancy Rainbow Six: Vegas
Ubisoft4218,6021,139,305

 
Mario Kart DS
Nintendo9517,4772,612,862

 
Brain Training
Nintendo7316,8071,804,382

 
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Nintendo4216,7941,932,874

Gears Of War
Microsoft4416,2492,925,133

 
Resistance: Fall of Man
Sony4313,673846,322

 
Animal Crossing: Wild World
Nintendo928,7761,477,217

Wario Ware: Smooth Moves
Nintendo348,752676,234

 
Tekken: Dark Resurrection
Namco598,677226,195

The Sims 2
EA988,486577,367

 
Super Mario 64 DS
Nintendo1468,2542,187,418

 
Dead Rising
Capcom578,011817,101

Hannah Montana
THQ487,903669,080

Need for Speed: Carbon
EA437,794275,182

 
Tetris DS
Nintendo777,057546,933

 
Saints Row
THQ546,791858,448

Fight Night Round 3
EA816,2671,072,808

 
Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories
Take 2986,2471,746,150

Lego Star Wars II: The Original Trilogy
LucasArts526,202388,342

 
Big Brain Academy
Nintendo666,0391,133,323

 
Scarface: The World Is Yours
Vivendi485,854953,868

 
Pokemon Ranger
Nintendo455,834786,444




These titles truly represent success (some more than others). I'll do a further analysis next post:

 



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

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Titles in order (and better formatted):

5m sellers: 

 - Nintendogs: 5.5m / 107weeks

3m sellers: 

 - Pokemon DS: 3.6m / 21weeks
 - Guitar Hero II (PS2): 3.1m / 44weeks
 - New Super Mario Bros: 3.1m / 69 weeks

2m sellers:

 - Gears of War: 2.9m / 44 weeks
 - Mario Kart DS: 2.6m / 95 weeks
 - Wii Play: 2.2m / 30 weeks
 - Super Mario 64 DS: 2.1m / 146 weeks

1m sellers:

 - Zelda:TP: 1.9m / 42 weeks
 - Brain Training: 1.8m / 73 weeks
 - GTA: Liberty City: 1.7m / 98 weeks
 - Animal Crossing DS: 1.4m / 92 weeks
 - Tom Clancy Rainbow Six: Vegas: 1.1m / 42 weeks
 - Big Brain Academy: 1.1m / 66 weeks
 - Fight Night Round#3: 1.0m/ 81 weeks

Under 1m:

 - Scarface (PS2?): 950k / 48 weeks
 - Saints Row: 860k / 54 weeks
 - Resistance: 840k / 43 weeks
 - Dead Rising: 820k / 57 weeks
 - Pokemon Ranger: 790k / 45 weeks
 - Wario Ware (Smooth Moves): 680k / 34 weeks
 - Hannah Montana: 670k / 48 weeks
 - Sims 2 (DS): 577k / 98 weeks
 - Tetris DS: 550k / 77 weeks
 - Lego Star Wars II (PSP?): 390k / 52 weeks
 - NFS: Carbon (PSP): 275k / 43 weeks
 - Tekken Dark Resistance: 220k / 59 weeks

 



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

Great stuff.  It's good to see something like this up here as I see it as important as what sells well in the long runcan be much more important then just a few weeks.

 Thanks shams.



It's me...  no really, it IS me!!!

I was actually just thinking about this though more about people waiting to buy games later when they are $10-$20 bucks cheaper etc. I think is why you see such a high attach rate for xbox 360 as many people are picking oldies like saints row since no other next gen game offers that type of gameplay "gta clone". I mean even so-so games will sell if they are $30-$40 bucks since many didn't feel $60 was worth it. With this holiday packed with great games I am sure many will have strong legs as most can't buy them all but will pick them up during the slow time and as they get price drops. I think is one way to get casual gamers as they don't want to spend too much money but want to get a game for themselves or their kids so they look at the platinum series etc that sells for $20-$40 etc. Basically "Long Term" sales matter quite a bit in this industry and should be tracked and payed more attention to as I think MS, Nintendo and SONY are.



Wow there are actually 2 PSP games on that list :o Wow , that was unexpected :)



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Some quick conclusions / comments - then I have to give up my PC for a while... :P

 - Pokemon is amazingly strong compared to most other things on the list. Should hit 5m by the end of the year without a sweat.

 - a couple of PSP titles, show that even PSP games can sell well - and have legs. GTA especially has done very well.

 - Gears of War has been a huge success, and will slip into the 3m bracket within a couple of weeks.

 - Fight Night has been a great success for EA

 - Guitar Hero has been a revelation for Activision

The titles in the bottom bracket are interesting. They show that the brand is strong, and it has excellent legs - although the overall demand isn't that strong. Of these titles, a couple stick out:

 - Hanna Montana: with almost 700k sold, this has been a huge success. Look out for the sequel coming soon!

 - Tekken (PSP): quite poor sales really - averaging around 4.5k/week.

 - Scarface has done really well (and this is just a single platform).

...

(it should also be noted, that I cut the charts at #100 - as there were too many titles to track after the #100 position. Maybe if we limit to 1m+ sold + 30 weeks ... I did notice Halo 2 in there, with 6.6m sold)

 



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

nice.

wth is hannah montana btw, sounds like a "Bratz" type thing, or maybe something to do with horses?



.......how many of those owners of those games actually still have that game? Most probably traded it in.



W29 said:
.......how many of those owners of those games actually still have that game? Most probably traded it in.
What proof do you have that they did trade them in?

Umm Tekken passed the 1 million according to naco , but I see just above 200k and only US sales on VGcharts ... same is with NFS : MW :? Why is that ? Will they be updated later ?



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