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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Brawl vs. Halo 3, Predictions

Legend11 said:

Take a look in the charts to see which game has the longer legs (I know Halo 2 has been a staple of the charts since it first came out).  Also you can't just looked at the Wii's installed base and make some kind of calculation compared to the Gamecube's because the audiences for both systems are not the exact same.  There are people buying Wiis that were never gamers before but picked one up because of Wii Sports, I can't see many of those kinds of people having bought Gamecubes.  Anyways what I'm trying to say is that the Wii's audience is much more diverse than the Gamecube's so chances are a game in some hardcore genre will very likely not have the same attachement rate on the Wii that they would have on the Gamecube.

Maybe; after all, we all don't know. But I wouldn't call SSB a pure "hardcore audience" game (whatever that is). It contains a collection of some of the most iconic characters in gaming, and keeps expanding cleverly - the additonal Pokemon characters in Brawl, for example.

But I admit, Halo3's hype and preorders are intimidating.

 



Currently playing: NSMB (Wii) 

Waiting for: Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Wii), The Last Story (Wii), Golden Sun (DS), Portal 2 (Wii? or OSX), Metroid: Other M (Wii), 
... and of course Zelda (Wii) 
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naznatips said:
ripper said:
i will be buying both. BUT halo three is a much better game and value. i will play halo 3 online a multitude of hours (ala rainbow 6) i will play brawl a couple of times with my kids. I think eventually games will come with more variety of price points. I think halo 3 would sell at 80 dollars where brawl would sell best at 30-40 dollars.

and you obviously know nothing at all about Brawl or it's features.  Oh well, ignorance is bliss.


It sure is, like ignoring the fact that the Wii's installed base is much more diverse than the Gamecube's or even including Super Smash Bros in your original chart to show that Halo 1 > SSB and Halo 2 > SSBM...



Legend11 said:
naznatips said:
ripper said:
i will be buying both. BUT halo three is a much better game and value. i will play halo 3 online a multitude of hours (ala rainbow 6) i will play brawl a couple of times with my kids. I think eventually games will come with more variety of price points. I think halo 3 would sell at 80 dollars where brawl would sell best at 30-40 dollars.

and you obviously know nothing at all about Brawl or it's features. Oh well, ignorance is bliss.


It sure is, like ignoring the fact that the Wii's installed base is much more diverse than the Gamecube's or even including Super Smash Bros in your original chart to show that Halo 1 > SSB and Halo 2 > SSBM...


I was trying to stay within the same generation for continuity... going back two generations is too far to accurately compare sales. However, I agree that the Wii's userbase is much more diverse than the Gamecube, and there is a chance either way, but my point is that there is a chance. It was in response to Montana saying there was no chance.  Oh and btw nice job ignoring the rest of the post and focusing on one small issue.  



10,000 units is not somewhat well, it's complete shit. 

Missing a 0. I believe you mean 100,000 because that is what those stats you posted indicate.



Also, so what if ripper may enjoy Halo 3 more? He's still getting both, one for his kids it sounds like, and one for himself. Not everyone follows all games to know what's in them, or will be hyped for them.

This really depends. Smash bros is a fantastic game, but mostly multiplayer, and Halo has a solid single and multiplayer aspect. The Wii is taking off, but there is that low purchasing group. No contest compared to release days, but in the long run, I'm giving the nod to Brawl.



See Ya George.

"He did not die - He passed Away"

At least following a comedians own jokes makes his death easier.

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jhlennon1 said:

10,000 units is not somewhat well, it's complete shit.

Missing a 0. I believe you mean 100,000 because that is what those stats you posted indicate.


Yeah, sorry about that.  It's been corrected.  I type too fast for my own good and am too lazy to proofread haha.  Thanks.



RolStoppable said:

Popular games will sell on the system they are released for. A higher userbase will guarantee higher software sales. It's absolutely reasonable to assume that these 3 Nintendo games will all outsell Halo 3 in the long run.

Really?  So could you explain to me why Madden 08 is selling more on the 360 with a U.S. installed base of 6.9 million compared to the PS2 with a U.S. installed base of 44.8 million?



Halo 3 will sell more first month than SSBB but after a year I think they'll be fairly even. That being said, neither are going to come close to Super Mario Galaxy lifetime sells.



naznatips said:
MontanaHatchet said:
No offense, but the whole, "Brawl will sell more in the long term" is a bunch of crap. No matter how well the Wii sells, Brawl can't even begin to touch Halo's strength.

Halo sells somewhat well in Japan, and Smash Bros has never been amazingly strong in Japan, although it does sell quite well, and manages to have long legs.

Super Mario Galaxy, maybe. Brawl? No chance.

Halo's strength? Well, let's take a look at that shall we. First, I'll paste the numbers for some quick reference:

NameConsolePublisherJapanAmericaOthersTotal
Super Smash Bros MeleeNintendo1.444.061.086.58
Totals (1 matches)1.44.11.16.6
NameConsolePublisherJapanAmericaOthersTotal
Halo 2Microsoft0.116.491.678.27
HaloMicrosoft0.104.911.426.43
Totals (2 matches)0.211.43.114.7

 

Super Smash Bros Melee outsold Halo.

You said Halo sells somewhat well in Japan, and Smash Bros. has never been amazingly strong in Japan, but that's just freaking ridiculous. 110,000 units is not somewhat well, it's complete shit. 1.44 million units is amazingly well. Lets look at some other games that have sold less than that in Japan:

Kingdom Hearts 1 and 2 sold 1.16 and 1.24 million respectively.
Metal Gear Solid 3 sold .86 million in Japan.
Everybody's Golf 3 sold 1.39 million in Japan.

All of these examples were on a system with more than 5 times the userbase of the Gamecube in Japan. There were only 4.02 million Gamecubes sold in Japan in it's lifetime. That's a 35% lifetime regional attach rate, which is nothing short of incredible. It's ridiculous to not say that's amazingly strong.

 

Now lets move on to the total sales. Of course there is the looming beast of Halo 2, which managed to outsell Super Smash Bros. Melee by 1.69 million units. This sounds like a lot, but lets break it down a bit more:

Super Smash Bros. Melee was released on the Gamecube as a launch title. This means that all of it's sales were based off pretty much nothing but its legs. It powered it's way to the end of the Gamecube's life with strong legs.

Halo 2 was released on the Xbox on November 9th, 2004. Prior to it's release, the Xbox had sold 17.34 million consoles according to the latest fiscal reports (filed in September). So, with 17.34 million consoles, Halo 2 was able to pull off 2.5 million units sold in it's first week in America. In the next 3 weeks Halo sold 735,000 followed by 377,000 followed by 293,000 units. Within it's first month on the market, Halo 2 had sold more than half of it's total lifetime sales, again on a console with 17.5 million units already out there when it launched.

The Gamecube sold 21.59 million copies worldwide in it's life. The Xbox sold 24.76 million copies in it's life. This gives Super Smash Bros. Melee an attach rate of 30.5% and Halo 2 an attach rate of 33.4%. Not a whole lot of difference when you look at it like that is there? Oh, and remember, we are talking about a launch title vs a game that was launched when the Xbox had already sold 75% of it's lifetime sales.

In review, you are saying there is no chance of Brawl surpassing Halo 3, when Melee already outsold Halo (a fellow launch title), and barely did worse than Halo 2 in lifetime attach rate, when Halo 2 was released 3/4 of the way through the Xbox's very short life. To add to that, Halo 3 is being released on the 360 when it has only sold 11 million units worldwide, wheras Brawl is going to be released on the Wii (if sales remain the way they are) when the Wii has sold 14 million units worldwide. The gap between the systems in sales will continue to widen throughout their lifespans as well. Considering that Smash Bros. is a series with huge legs, this can only benefit it, and can only hurt Halo, a very top-heavy game.


lol darn! you beat me to the charts. I was gonna elaborate but you did it before me. Awesome job.



@legend11: Halo 3 will be sold in september, when sales of videogames are not that great (and it will sell great becuase of name recognition). Brawl goes for sale in DECEMBER the holy gril of videogame sales, add that to the fact that SSBBwill feature most recognizable characters from nintendo and some of the 3rd parties. This game is going to sell shitloads of copies this december, they are going to sell as much as they put on shelves, I just want to see how much they stock the stores. Thats their ceiling.
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