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Forums - Sales Discussion - How long will the PS2 hold the WW sales record?

Final-Fan on 08 September 2007

The PS2 has no doubt overtaken the GB as best-selling video game console ever.  (It was 900K behind in March.)  It will have done so after approximately 7 years and 3 months on the market.

But how long can it hold the crown, before it gets splattered by a freight train known as the DS?  The DS is about to hit 50 million, less than three years after its release, and sales are accelerating if anything.  (This year has seen sales mostly in the range of 350-500K weekly; the PS2 never broke 400K outside of holidays and its best average was 300K.)  The goal is 130m, given a current PS2 estimate (which I've just made up) of 122m and a protracted death.  (End PS2 numbers between 125-130m)

Let the predictions begin!  Try to keep the flames low enough that I can toast Smores without burning the marshmallows, OK? 

Personally, I'm just going to do this unscientifically:  looking at the Hardware Comparison Chart (weekly sales), the 2nd two years look about twice as good as the first one.  So 5x=50m; x=10m, 2x=yearly sales=20m.  So another 8x, or another 80m, would take about 4 years.  (Total: 130m)

DS sales could slow down after a while, but I think 4 years is a pretty good estimate, since year 3 is/was also better than year 2 -- year 3 was the PS2's peak, so taking an average lower than the DS's year 3 helps moderate the estimate.  

My prediction:  May-November 2011 (3yr8mo to 4yr3mo) for the DS to beat the PS2.  The DS will be 6 years 6 months old that May.  The PS2 will have held the record for 4 to 4 1/2 years, less time than either the NES or Game Boy held the crown for.  

P.S.  The Wii has been running at about twice the level of DS non-holiday sales counting from launch. 

P.P.S.  All numbers from the Hardware Comparison Charts and World Hardware Shipments, except launch dates from Wikipedia.   



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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MontanaHatchet on 08 September 2007

Well, let's just assume that the PS2, which will still be in market for another 3 years, only sells another 10 million consoles in those 3 years. The DS is certainly moving at a fast pace, but it would only have a chance if the PS2 stopped selling.

I see the DS getting very, very close, but I see the PS2 lead just being insurmountable.



 

 

Final-Fan on 08 September 2007

I assumed up to 8 million; pretty close. After the first year after the PS2 came out, the PS1 sold 6 million. It is now (almost) one year after the PS3 came out. The PS2 can be expected to do better, but more than twice as well? In the face of the Wii, 360, and its own successor?

The PS2 WILL stop selling, and it will be close to 130 million when it does. Unless the DS is replaced by 2010, there is no way it can fail to outsell the PS2 before it dies. It may fail to meet my schedule, especially if a successor is unveiled in 2010 or 11, but there's no way I see that DS would completely fail to meet the goal unless a new handheld goes to market in EARLY 2010. Considering that the GBA isn't quite in its grave yet the DS could have a solid chance even then, and anyway I do not think that it's at all likely.

It's true that Nintendo has been pumping out new handhelds with alarming speed since the Game Boy: Pocket 1996, Color 1998, Game Boy Advance 2001, DS 2004. But the DS is such an unbelievable hit that it would be crazy for Nintendo to replace it before it starts to show its age. And Nintendo isn't crazy, except "- like a fox" and "- rich".

In fact, RolStoppable and I disagree on lifetime DS sales only insofar as how far past 150 million the DS will go.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

vizunary on 08 September 2007

you shouldn't compare the two, one's a home console the others a handheld... or i say the record has already been beaten, by every computer sold since windows 3.1, which all had solitaire, making them gaming machines.



Final-Fan on 08 September 2007
vizunary said:
you shouldn't compare the two, one's a home console the others a handheld... or i say the record has already been beaten, by every computer sold since windows 3.1, which all had solitaire, making them gaming machines.

Windows solitaire?  You must be joking. 

But if you like, you can make 2 predictions:  When will the Wii beat the PS2? and When will the DS beat the GB?

 



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

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Final-Fan on 08 September 2007

Wow, this thread went nowhere. I thought this would at least turn a few heads.

Does this mean no one but Montana disagrees with my prediction?



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Hus on 08 September 2007
Soriku said:

And I guarantee the PS2 will not sell another 10 mil.
 

Had to quote it.

  



Final-Fan on 08 September 2007
Soriku said:
Don't compare handhelds with consoles 'cause the GBA sold more than the PS2. Consoles with consoles = yes.

Currebtly, the Wii has a chance if not a big one.

And I guarantee the PS2 will not sell another 10 mil.


GBA = 79.47 total (17/41/22 spread)

PS2 = 117.89 total (25/48/45 spread)

GBA > PS2?  WRONG!

As for the Wii, it is selling twice as fast (non-holiday) as the DS was at that point in its life, which was outselling the PS2 at that point in its life.  I would say it definitely has a big chance.  

The PS2 may well sell another 10m.  Or it may not.  But I think it will be close either way.  Certainly not enough to "guarantee"!



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

NeoRatt on 08 September 2007

This is too much of a wildcard right now. Too early to tell...

DS looks like a good guess but, what if Apple or Microsoft get into that market? Or Nintendo comes out with a new device?

On the console side, I don't think any of the three are in a good position to say they will get there... 360, has to deal with its Microsoft name and Japan, Sony has to get going, Nintendo Wii has to expand into the hard core gaming arena. None have proven they can get beyond where they are.



ssj12 on 08 September 2007
Final-Fan said:
Soriku said:
Don't compare handhelds with consoles 'cause the GBA sold more than the PS2. Consoles with consoles = yes.

Currebtly, the Wii has a chance if not a big one.

And I guarantee the PS2 will not sell another 10 mil.


GBA = 79.47 total (17/41/22 spread)

PS2 = 117.89 total (25/48/45 spread)

GBA > PS2? WRONG!

As for the Wii, it is selling twice as fast (non-holiday) as the DS was at that point in its life, which was outselling the PS2 at that point in its life. I would say it definitely has a big chance.

The PS2 may well sell another 10m. Or it may not. But I think it will be close either way. Certainly not enough to "guarantee"!


 lol Soriku got owned.

 Seriously the PS2 only has a chance to be surpassed when it's discontinued after the PS4 starts production the PS2's sales will be passed. 



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