The PS2 has no doubt overtaken the GB as best-selling video game console ever. (It was 900K behind in March.) It will have done so after approximately 7 years and 3 months on the market.
But how long can it hold the crown, before it gets splattered by a freight train known as the DS? The DS is about to hit 50 million, less than three years after its release, and sales are accelerating if anything. (This year has seen sales mostly in the range of 350-500K weekly; the PS2 never broke 400K outside of holidays and its best average was 300K.) The goal is 130m, given a current PS2 estimate (which I've just made up) of 122m and a protracted death. (End PS2 numbers between 125-130m)
Let the predictions begin! Try to keep the flames low enough that I can toast Smores without burning the marshmallows, OK?
Personally, I'm just going to do this unscientifically: looking at the Hardware Comparison Chart (weekly sales), the 2nd two years look about twice as good as the first one. So 5x=50m; x=10m, 2x=yearly sales=20m. So another 8x, or another 80m, would take about 4 years. (Total: 130m)
DS sales could slow down after a while, but I think 4 years is a pretty good estimate, since year 3 is/was also better than year 2 -- year 3 was the PS2's peak, so taking an average lower than the DS's year 3 helps moderate the estimate.
My prediction: May-November 2011 (3yr8mo to 4yr3mo) for the DS to beat the PS2. The DS will be 6 years 6 months old that May. The PS2 will have held the record for 4 to 4 1/2 years, less time than either the NES or Game Boy held the crown for.
P.S. The Wii has been running at about twice the level of DS non-holiday sales counting from launch.
P.P.S. All numbers from the Hardware Comparison Charts and World Hardware Shipments, except launch dates from Wikipedia.
Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia. Thanks WordsofWisdom!