bdbdbd said: @Plaupius: I mentioned the (semi)standard platforms as N-Gage 2 and iPhone for the developer interest. BC is a good point too, but that's not the biggest problem from markets perspective considering the new phone models. The problem is, that when people swich their phones, they also ditch the purchased software, when BC doesn't extend from one device into another. Also the fact that people tend to jump from one brand to another pretty easilly when it comes to phones and you're likely to either sell your old phone, throw it into garbage or let it gather dust in the drawer. IPhone do have the strength of being compatible with iPod. |
Ditching the software certainly is a problem, however I doubt it is as much of a problem with the iPhone or iPod Touch. The reason being that the users are likely to have a catalog of music and software that it at least partially tied to their iTunes, and the amount of money they have spent on those creates some sort of barrier to switch to a different vendor. Also, another point to ponder about is that people used to switch phones because each new model would have more and better features, but at least currently it seems that the importance of new features has dramatically lessened. Perhaps cell phones have reached a certain point of maturity where they pretty much have all the technical features that people want, apart from the obvious battery life that you can never have too much.
Regarding the BC, I'm talking from a developer's perspective here: I as a dev would really hate if every new piece of HW would mean that the existing installed base is either out, or that I have to support multiple pieces of hardware. And if the devs don't come, games won't come, and without games there won't be customers. I see two things that Apple has managed to do better than others so far:
a) creating a reasonably unified software/hardware development platform with great development tools and documentation, and
b) creating, or findging, a market who is willing and able to buy the software and use it.
Without those two pieces in place, any similar attemp is likely to fail. Nokia Ovi and the N-Gage software platform are a step in the right direction, but if you compare the success of Ovi to the success of the AppStore, it's clear that Nokia can't even begin to compete. According to Wikipedia the N-Gage was launched about a year ago, and there are currently 36 games available. In contrast, the iPhone SDK has been available for about a year, and there are currently about 6500 games available (according to Apptism) out of which around 4800 are paid and the rest are free. Even if the Apptism figures were a bit off, the iPhone still has more than a hundred times more games. Granted, perhaps 99.9% of them are crap, but that doesn't take away from the success of the platform.