From what I have seen, I think Galaxy is going to blow people away. It will be a true revolution, and be the first "killer game app" for the Wii. Anything less than a straight 40 from Famitsu will be disappointing, and I think it will have similar sales figures to NSMB (but weaker legs, as the Wii < DS).

http://vgchartz.com/japcomp.php?name1=New+Super+Mario+Bros&name2=Super+Mario+64

750k week#1 sales, 1.3m by the end of November - and almost 2m by the end of '07.

Hardware Wii sales: 150k - 170k.

Out of interest shams, is that Japan or worldwide for the software sales?

If you mean the chart/link, its Japan only. Yes - NSMB is approaching the 5m sold - in Japan alone.

And my predictions are for Japan only. I think Galaxy could sell 4-5m WW by the end of '07. 

 Just curious, but what kind of legs do you think the game will have? Going by past Mario games and the simple mechanism of word of mouth my feeling is that SMG could redefine what it means to"have legs".  And I honestly feel like I am stating that mildly.  What say you?

Definitely between 750,000 to 900,000 copies for me.

555,000 for first week for me!!!

This is just in Japan right???

NSMB is still selling 15k / week - regularly. Basically, people buy the console to play the game. I think Galaxy will end up similar. So not only will it drive Wii sales indefinitely, I think it will have similar legs. You may see it in the top 10/20 in 50-100 weeks time.

All this is assuming its as good as I hope/think. NSMB disappointed a lot of people (not sure how, I think its almost perfect) - so if Galaxy does even better, anything can happen.

*resusitates thread* 

Looks like Wii will be at 3.55 to 3.60 million users in Japan when Galaxy comes out Nov 1.

I'd guess sales will in the low 500k region for week one now.

What do you all think?

550K +