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Forums - Sales - Will Killzone 2 break 3 million sales worldwide lifetime?

wholikeswood on 31 March 2009

50k x 36 weeks (~ end of 2009)

30k x 60 weeks (~ end of May 2010)

20k x 90 weeks (~ end of 2010)

Any of those combinations would take us up to 3mil.



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Seece on 31 March 2009
CGI-Quality said:
seece said:
CGI-Quality said:
seece said:
CGI-Quality said:
seece said:
CGI-Quality said:
waron said:
CGI-Quality said:
waron said:
CGI-Quality said:
waron said:
twingo said:
waron said:
it won't KZ@ sales are decreasing rapidly and i think it will end up at 2.4-2.6mln not more.

um bundles and eventual greatest hit release bud.

 

 

 

bundles won't do much. Sony was giving in europe Resistance for free with every ps3 for like 14-18months and it manage to make less than 1mln there. KZ2 bundles won't have such impact(i would say less than 300k would come from bundles in KZ2 LTD sales)

Dude, you really have no clue what you're talking about. Have a look:

http://vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=1893&region=All

 

i was talking about bundles sales not overall.

 

Where did you pull out that figure of Resistance < 1mill in Europe then, after bundles? And what does Resistance have to do with KZ2 in this regard?

 

i'm just talking that bundles won't have huge impact on KZ2 sales as you may think cause it's a little too late in ps3 lifecycle. besides i don't think sony will keep standard KZ2 bundle for longer than 2-3 months(of course there will be probably xmas themmed bundles with KZ2) - same was with LBP and GT5p bundle.

 

That's quite subjective. The bundles aren't here to "save the PS3". They will continue to drive sales as KZ2 is selling great for a title released in February. It will hit 2.5mill later this year, with 3mill incoming sometime by Spring/Q1/Q2 2010.

 

What sort of legs are you expecting the game to have throughout the year?

 

A better question is, why WOULDN'T it reach 2.5mill in 2009?

Again people, read makingmusic's post, why is that logic being ignored?

 

Huh? why don't you answer the question I gave you, I mean if you're going to quote me? I'm asking what sort of legs you think the game will have? 50k a week? 30k a week?

 

Well for the sake of precision, I can't answer that. For the sake of prediction, IMO it will sell enough this year to clear 2.5mill. My question to you, however, needs answering: why WOULDN'T it hit 2.5mill in 2009, since you seem to think, it won't.

 

Where did I say it wouldn't? Actually I think it will be close, if it maintains 30k a week for the next 30 weeks thats 900k + the 9 weeks of christmas.

It should be close, it all depends on what legs it gets, and you don't know what kind of legs its going to have, for all you know it could go down to 15k a week. So you're being ignorant calling people out that don't think it will hit 2.5M this year. Thats their opinion and there is the possibility it won't hit 2.5M and that you will be wrong.

Resitence 2 and Little Big Planet are both below 20k a week just 20/22 weeks after launch. Now you tell me what makes Killzone so different?

 

If it drops down that low, we go from there. In the meantime, there's nothing suggesting, at this moment, that the game won't clear 2.5mill in 09 and 3mill in 2010, that's what I'm getting at. Let's use this as an example:

makingmusic said:

As of Killzone 2's fourth week of sales it sits at 1.24 million.

Using only ps3 titles...

As of Haze's fourth week of sales, it was at 277k. It now sits at 730k, a 160% increase.

As of CoD4's fourth week, it was at 969k. It now sits at 4.1 million, a 223% increase.

As of CoD:WaW's fourth week, it was at 1.523 million. As of now, it sits at 3.10 million, a 103% increase, and it is far from being done selling.

As of RSV2's fourth week, it was at 402k. Now it sits at 1.07 million. a 166% increase, and it'll probably sell small amounts for the next year or so.

I can't think of another example that doesn't fall in between Haze and CoD4. This means that at worst Killzone 2 will increase its current lifetime sales by 160%, and that's assuming the game has either bad word of mouth like Haze, or little to no word of mouth like RSV2, both of which are unlikely.   Hell, the game hasn't even had its first holiday season yet, unlike the above four titles!

1.24 * 2.6 = 3.22 million. The game should sell at least 3.22 million lifetime.

Now, I still don't get why this is being ignored, but hey, to each his own.

Beacause that is a really really stupid way to look at the potential sales of a game. The way I look at it is the game will be at around 30k in the next couple of weeks and will continue to drop. That makes more sense than using other games sales as a basis for working out how Killzone 2 will sell.

 

 



 

Seece on 31 March 2009
CGI-Quality said:
kowenicki said:
@cgi

Because its never that simple....more analysis is required. i think a lot depends on when cod mw2 launches.

Assuming MW2 launches in Oct/Nov, then what you're saying is KZ2 won't reach 2.5mill between 4/1/09 and 10/1/09, correct? I don't see, reasonably, why it couldn't by then, UNLESS it drops down to about 10-15k a week, which isn't impossible, but IS unlikely.

 

What if next week it gets 50 - 60k then the next 30 weeks April - end of October it averages 20k a week? 1.89M it will stand at.

So in November/December it will have to manage 610k

 

and its is more than likely Killzone 2 will average 20k over the next 7 months because like I said LBP and R2 4 months after launch at at 15 - 17k.

So what now?

 



 

Seece on 31 March 2009
CGI-Quality said:
seece said:
CGI-Quality said:
kowenicki said:
@cgi

Because its never that simple....more analysis is required. i think a lot depends on when cod mw2 launches.

Assuming MW2 launches in Oct/Nov, then what you're saying is KZ2 won't reach 2.5mill between 4/1/09 and 10/1/09, correct? I don't see, reasonably, why it couldn't by then, UNLESS it drops down to about 10-15k a week, which isn't impossible, but IS unlikely.

 

What if next week it gets 50 - 60k then the next 30 weeks April - end of October it averages 20k a week? 1.89M it will stand at.

So in November/December it will have to manage 610k

 

and its is more than likely Killzone 2 will average 20k over the next 7 months because like I said LBP and R2 4 months after launch at at 15 - 17k.

So what now?

 

So your math is based on games like LBP, once agian different dempographic, and Resistance 2, a game will less word of mouth, that debuted during the holiday and STILL sold less than KZ2. How are they bearing upon KZ2, because you say so?

 

 

 

Honestly I'm looking at it without rose tinted spectacles on. I can admit it could hit 2.5 million this year and 3 million lifetime for sure, but you seem to be so adamant that Killzone WILL hit 2.5million ..

 

Newsflash its more than likely Killzone 2 won't hit 2.5 million this year unless it does 30k a week average over the year.

 

 



 

Seece on 31 March 2009
CGI-Quality said:
seece said:
CGI-Quality said:
seece said:
CGI-Quality said:
kowenicki said:
@cgi

Because its never that simple....more analysis is required. i think a lot depends on when cod mw2 launches.

My point is not only valid, but it's remaining. Once evidence is introduced of an unaccomplishable feat of 2.5mill in 2009, I'll eat crow until thenAssuming MW2 launches in Oct/Nov, then what you're saying is KZ2 won't reach 2.5mill between 4/1/09 and 10/1/09, correct? I don't see, reasonably, why it couldn't by then, UNLESS it drops down to about 10-15k a week, which isn't impossible, but IS unlikely.

 

What if next week it gets 50 - 60k then the next 30 weeks April - end of October it averages 20k a week? 1.89M it will stand at.

So in November/December it will have to manage 610k

 

and its is more than likely Killzone 2 will average 20k over the next 7 months because like I said LBP and R2 4 months after launch at at 15 - 17k.

So what now?

 

So your math is based on games like LBP, once agian different dempographic, and Resistance 2, a game will less word of mouth, that debuted during the holiday and STILL sold less than KZ2. How are they bearing upon KZ2, because you say so?

 

 

 

Honestly I'm looking at it without rose tinted spectacles on. I can admit it could hit 2.5 million this year and 3 million lifetime for sure, but you seem to be so adamant that Killzone WILL hit 2.5million ..

 

Newsflash its more than likely Killzone 2 won't hit 2.5 million this year unless it does 30k a week average over the year.

 

 

My point is not only valid, but remains. Once indisputable evidence is introduced of an outlandish prediction of 2.5mill in 2009, I'll happily eat crow. I can admit when I'm wrong, but when/if I am, not now which seems likely that KZ2 will clear 2.5mill in 2009.

 

CGI out.

 

Except I don't think you're capable of admitting you're wrong.

 



 

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Riot Of The Blood on 31 March 2009

You see it selling over 1.7 million over a 5 month period that is not a holiday buying season?  Say that is about 22 weeks.  That would mean it would need to sell an average of over 77,000 a week.  The last week, it sold over 84000 copies worldwide, down from nearly 132000.


Yes, as a matter of fact, I do see it selling that well. If not exactly 3 million, I think it will be close enough to that number. I'll admit that I do have a tendency to over estimate things, especially when it come to things related to the PS3 and Nintendo DS. But a five month period is a long time, and it would only take moderate legs to reach these numbers. Killzone 2 is still a fairly new IP to most buyers. Therefore, a bulk of the games sales will be recieved over a long period of time, unlike some the PS3's more front-loaded games (i.e Metal Gear Solid 4). 3 million sold to retail is a given. I believe VGchartz data will at least have the game at 2.5 million by October.



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Seece on 31 March 2009
CGI-Quality said:
seece said:
CGI-Quality said:
seece said:
CGI-Quality said:
seece said:
CGI-Quality said:
kowenicki said:
@cgi

Because its never that simple....more analysis is required. i think a lot depends on when cod mw2 launches.

My point is not only valid, but it's remaining. Once evidence is introduced of an unaccomplishable feat of 2.5mill in 2009, I'll eat crow until thenAssuming MW2 launches in Oct/Nov, then what you're saying is KZ2 won't reach 2.5mill between 4/1/09 and 10/1/09, correct? I don't see, reasonably, why it couldn't by then, UNLESS it drops down to about 10-15k a week, which isn't impossible, but IS unlikely.

What if next week it gets 50 - 60k then the next 30 weeks April - end of October it averages 20k a week? 1.89M it will stand at.

So in November/December it will have to manage 610k


and its is more than likely Killzone 2 will average 20k over the next 7 months because like I said LBP and R2 4 months after launch at at 15 - 17k.

So what now?

So your math is based on games like LBP, once agian different dempographic, and Resistance 2, a game will less word of mouth, that debuted during the holiday and STILL sold less than KZ2. How are they bearing upon KZ2, because you say so?

Honestly I'm looking at it without rose tinted spectacles on. I can admit it could hit 2.5 million this year and 3 million lifetime for sure, but you seem to be so adamant that Killzone WILL hit 2.5million ..


Newsflash its more than likely Killzone 2 won't hit 2.5 million this year unless it does 30k a week average over the year.

My point is not only valid, but remains. Once indisputable evidence is introduced of an outlandish prediction of 2.5mill in 2009, I'll happily eat crow. I can admit when I'm wrong, but when/if I am, not now which seems likely that KZ2 will clear 2.5mill in 2009.

 

CGI out.

Except I don't think you're capable of admitting you're wrong.

lol...seeing as how you aren't a mind reader, I could care less

 

Don't need to be a mind reader to know what you're about CGI ......

 



 

Max King of the Wild on 31 March 2009

KZ2 should be close to 2.3 when last week of march comes in. R2, Cod4, and R1 have done 100k in japan leaving kz2 at about 2.4mil 1.1 mil in 40 weeks would put at about 27k weekly for na and eu which is reasonable



saimcheeda on 31 March 2009

CGI is correct!!!



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Pristine20 on 31 March 2009
makingmusic476 said:

As of Killzone 2's fourth week of sales it sits at 1.24 million.

Using only ps3 titles...

As of Haze's fourth week of sales, it was at 277k. It now sits at 730k, a 160% increase.

As of CoD4's fourth week, it was at 969k. It now sits at 4.1 million, a 223% increase.

As of CoD:WaW's fourth week, it was at 1.523 million. As of now, it sits at 3.10 million, a 103% increase, and it is far from being done selling.

As of RSV2's fourth week, it was at 402k. Now it sits at 1.07 million. a 166% increase, and it'll probably sell small amounts for the next year or so.

I can't think of another example that doesn't fall in between Haze and CoD4. This means that at worst Killzone 2 will increase its current lifetime sales by 160%, and that's assuming the game has either bad word of mouth like Haze, or little to no word of mouth like RSV2, both of which are unlikely.   Hell, the game hasn't even had its first holiday season yet, unlike the above four titles!

1.24 * 2.6 = 3.22 million. The game should sell at least 3.22 million lifetime.

I find it funny how many times I've seen people say Killzone 2 won't break 3 million, sometimes even saying it'll die off between 2 and 2.4 million. This makes no sense, and I honestly have to wonder if these people can do basic math, or if they have any analytical skills at all. :P

Edit: Beaten badly by Wiistation.  =/

makingSENSE476 ftw!!! I heard someone suggest you a new user ID before lol.

 



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