Well, I'm not going to bet on it. But I'm definitely going to hold on a bit before buying a Wii right now. I don't want to buy one for $250.00 then, turn around and find they're releasing one at the holidays that will work much better on my lcd tv.

So, I'm going to spend some money that I recently got for selling my PS3 on a DSi and some games for my 360 plus a Live subscription and some xbla points.

A man with a plan.

yeah lets replace an insanely popular machine that is only a few years old with a new one.

sorry, I wouldn't expect to see a successor until possibly 2011.

      But doesn't your first sentence seem to be what Nintendo always does?  eg.  GBA being replaced by GBA SP?  DS being replaced by DS Lite and now DS Lite when it was insanely popular being replaced by DSi?  I wouldn't buy a Nintendo console at its regular price two years after release when that is almost always the time when they bring about a slightly modified upgrade.

i went mad prior to iwata's speech and this was the maddest idea i had.

DSL is not being replaced by DSi...

Ridiculous. We are at least a couple of years before even considering a possible Wii HD announcements.

A lot of what you mentioned as reasons have a lot of explainations.  Explainations that you will learn as you continue to watch the game industry closely.  A big one is the secretivity with which Nintendo chooses to keep regardless of how set they seem to be.  They don't usually announce a lot of games until a few months before they are to be released.  Sometimes they could go years without talking about a game, just to have it resurface with all kinds of information.  They also have a strong control over 3rd parties and what games they announce.  Nintendo will tell companies to keep games secret until an appropriate time and venue. 

To better know what the companies will do you have to watch their announcements, know their tendancies, watch sales numbers, etc.

Granted crazier things have happened, but not traditionally with Nintendo.  Not when a console is selling like crazy.  But then, I know they are really worried about the Japan situation.

true but that's not going to happen until next generation which will not be until (at the earliest) 2011. My money is on a 2012 release though for the Nintendo HD console.

1. Handheld and home console are two completely different markets.

2. New handhelds only came out after more color options and various bundled sales w/ big games.

So, no. Expect colors and bundles and even a price cut before a successor.

Someone bring in the lolcats

You're free to have your own opinion, but let's go over the facts:

1. Nintendo Wii is roughly selling as much as its competitors combined.
2. Nintendo Wii sells more software than its competitors
3. Nintendo makes oodles of profit on each Wii sold, to the point where they actually feel they can get away with increasing the price.
4. They just announced this big storage solution that everyone's been clamoring for--why would they go to the trouble if they were replacing the console soon?
5. They just hinted that they'll have a massive Wii showing at E3. And the third parties are really starting to bring it.

So, to sum up: fail.