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Forums - Sales Discussion - 50% market share thread

numonex said:
Impulsivity said:
As far as the Wii hitting 50%, I think there's a decent chance it won't happen at all. If it does happen it won't be sustained.

The reason is, quite simply, the Wii is just not accelerating in sales any more. In Japan it seems to have come pretty close to a plateau. It is being outsold by the PS3 semi regularly now. If you combine PS3 and 360 sales Japan almost evens out the Wii's advantage from North America.

In Europe the Wii is indeed number one but not by much. The Wii is actually losing ground if you combine 360 and PS3 sales.

Also the PS2 didn't just have the most hardware sales but by far the most software sales as well. In this case the Wii may have a lot of hardware sales but the 3rd party Software sales are just not there. There are not real 3rd party hits on the Wii especially not the 10 million sale mega hits the PS2 has tons of. The HD consoles combine for WAY more software sales then the Wii still, especially 3rd party software.

When the PS3 drops the price I think 30% is very realisitic. I would bet the gen ends something like 30% PS3, 45% Wii 25% 360. That's about 2 years from now with a big PS3 price drop happening this year as a built in assumption.

 

I think your prediction fails right in this last line. Assume = You make an ass out of you and me

http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/oct2006/id20061030_448590.htm?campaign_id=bier_innn.g3a.rssd1101a Read this article and you will be ROFLMAO. I guarantee it. lol.  Pre-launch PS3, flash back to  October  30 2006. Nostaltgia. High expectations. "PS3 should win console generation wars".

Oh boy were they so wrong.

   When the PS3 was 100 dollars or so more (399 after price drop vs 269 as the 360 low point) it was selling significantly better then the 360 was.  That is what forced MS into the sub 200 dollar price point in the first place.  For a good while in 2008 the PS3 was outselling the 360 in all regions.  What makes you think that the PS3 won't again outsell the 360 in all regions when the price drops?  

   On top of that, pretty much every big release this year is for the PS3 and 360 or just the PS3.  Especially if a big game like God of War 3 or Gran Turismo 5 drops in 2009, the PS3's lineup will be vastly superior.  Sony's rather large stable of 1st and 2nd party devs is really showing its strength this year and will probably be even stronger in 2010 when GT5, GOW3 and the rest will be out for sure.

   The PS3 was outselling the 360 even before the tide turned on the games front, at 299 with even better games how exactly will the 360 be trouncing the PS3 again?  I mean even when they dropped the price to half what the PS3 costs it only outsells the PS3 by about the amount the PS3 outsold the 360 pre price drop.  

   If the 360 was going to be anything like a break out console A) it would have already happened by now and B) sales would have gone MUCH higher when the price dropped to 199, look at what the PS2 did at that price point.

 




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numonex said:
Impulsivity said:
As far as the Wii hitting 50%, I think there's a decent chance it won't happen at all. If it does happen it won't be sustained.

The reason is, quite simply, the Wii is just not accelerating in sales any more. In Japan it seems to have come pretty close to a plateau. It is being outsold by the PS3 semi regularly now. If you combine PS3 and 360 sales Japan almost evens out the Wii's advantage from North America.

In Europe the Wii is indeed number one but not by much. The Wii is actually losing ground if you combine 360 and PS3 sales.

Also the PS2 didn't just have the most hardware sales but by far the most software sales as well. In this case the Wii may have a lot of hardware sales but the 3rd party Software sales are just not there. There are not real 3rd party hits on the Wii especially not the 10 million sale mega hits the PS2 has tons of. The HD consoles combine for WAY more software sales then the Wii still, especially 3rd party software.

When the PS3 drops the price I think 30% is very realisitic. I would bet the gen ends something like 30% PS3, 45% Wii 25% 360. That's about 2 years from now with a big PS3 price drop happening this year as a built in assumption.

 

I think your prediction fails right in this last line. Assume = You make an ass out of you and me

http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/oct2006/id20061030_448590.htm?campaign_id=bier_innn.g3a.rssd1101a Read this article and you will be ROFLMAO. I guarantee it. lol.  Pre-launch PS3, flash back to  October  30 2006. Nostaltgia. High expectations. "PS3 should win console generation wars".

Oh boy were they so wrong.

   When the PS3 was 100 dollars or so more (399 after price drop vs 269 as the 360 low point) it was selling significantly better then the 360 was.  That is what forced MS into the sub 200 dollar price point in the first place.  For a good while in 2008 the PS3 was outselling the 360 in all regions.  What makes you think that the PS3 won't again outsell the 360 in all regions when the price drops?  

   On top of that, pretty much every big release this year is for the PS3 and 360 or just the PS3.  Especially if a big game like God of War 3 or Gran Turismo 5 drops in 2009, the PS3's lineup will be vastly superior.  Sony's rather large stable of 1st and 2nd party devs is really showing its strength this year and will probably be even stronger in 2010 when GT5, GOW3 and the rest will be out for sure.

   The PS3 was outselling the 360 even before the tide turned on the games front, at 299 with even better games how exactly will the 360 be trouncing the PS3 again?  I mean even when they dropped the price to half what the PS3 costs it only outsells the PS3 by about the amount the PS3 outsold the 360 pre price drop.  

   If the 360 was going to be anything like a break out console A) it would have already happened by now and B) sales would have gone MUCH higher when the price dropped to 199, look at what the PS2 did at that price point.

 




 PSN ID: ChosenOne feel free to add me

This is not a cause for celebration. Its a cause for morning.




Times Banned: 12

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Undying said:
This is not a cause for celebration. Its a cause for morning.

 

  Look at it the other way, more then 50% of the market still belongs to HD gamers (even more if you include PC sales).  The idea that somehow the only way to sell is to go the hyper casual Wii path has pretty much been debunked by this point.  The Wii has in no way had a break away performance like the far less casual PS1 and PS2 enjoyed.  HD games are here to stay.




 PSN ID: ChosenOne feel free to add me

Impulsivity said:
Undying said:
This is not a cause for celebration. Its a cause for morning.

 

  Look at it the other way, more then 50% of the market still belongs to HD gamers (even more if you include PC sales).  The idea that somehow the only way to sell is to go the hyper casual Wii path has pretty much been debunked by this point.  The Wii has in no way had a break away performance like the far less casual PS1 and PS2 enjoyed.  HD games are here to stay.

 

In a few months it will be 51%, then the tides will begin to turn.




Times Banned: 12

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Undying said:
Impulsivity said:
Undying said:
This is not a cause for celebration. Its a cause for morning.

 

  Look at it the other way, more then 50% of the market still belongs to HD gamers (even more if you include PC sales).  The idea that somehow the only way to sell is to go the hyper casual Wii path has pretty much been debunked by this point.  The Wii has in no way had a break away performance like the far less casual PS1 and PS2 enjoyed.  HD games are here to stay.

 

In a few months it will be 51%, then the tides will begin to turn.

 

  How?  Month to month PS3+360 sales are consistently higher then the Wii.  This is especially true since demand for the Wii seems to have collapsed in Japan.  It's not out of stock anywhere anymore, which further shows Wii ferver has reached a plateau.




 PSN ID: ChosenOne feel free to add me

Impulsivity said:
Undying said:
Impulsivity said:
Undying said:
This is not a cause for celebration. Its a cause for morning.

 

  Look at it the other way, more then 50% of the market still belongs to HD gamers (even more if you include PC sales).  The idea that somehow the only way to sell is to go the hyper casual Wii path has pretty much been debunked by this point.  The Wii has in no way had a break away performance like the far less casual PS1 and PS2 enjoyed.  HD games are here to stay.

 

In a few months it will be 51%, then the tides will begin to turn.

 

  How?  Month to month PS3+360 sales are consistently higher then the Wii.  This is especially true since demand for the Wii seems to have collapsed in Japan.  It's not out of stock anywhere anymore, which further shows Wii ferver has reached a plateau.

 

 What? Wii is still selling more than Ps360, despite some lackluster performance lately.

For the year so far, it's at 51.1%



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

Here's the most important thing:

Last gen, Sony had 75% and was profitable.

This gen, Sony expected to walk away with the race again, and they contructed a console that needed to win in order to be profitable, and as a result when they failed, they failed hard, and lost most or all of their PS2 profits quickly.

Last gen, Nintendo built a console that was profitable despite a dismal 12% market share.

This gen, they followed the same plan, and now that they are teetering on a 50% share, are making an embarassing amount of money.

It's clear to me which business model is the better one.



Impulsivity said:
Undying said:
Impulsivity said:
Undying said:
This is not a cause for celebration. Its a cause for morning.

 

  Look at it the other way, more then 50% of the market still belongs to HD gamers (even more if you include PC sales).  The idea that somehow the only way to sell is to go the hyper casual Wii path has pretty much been debunked by this point.  The Wii has in no way had a break away performance like the far less casual PS1 and PS2 enjoyed.  HD games are here to stay.

 

In a few months it will be 51%, then the tides will begin to turn.

 

  How?  Month to month PS3+360 sales are consistently higher then the Wii.  This is especially true since demand for the Wii seems to have collapsed in Japan.  It's not out of stock anywhere anymore, which further shows Wii ferver has reached a plateau.

 

Dude you cant be serious Really??

Wait till Wii Sports Resort and few other big games are released... Oh and the holiday season, just look at the numbers from last year, and yes they will be bigger and i doubt HD consoles can come anywhere close combined...



why ask for opinions if you are going to diss them if its against your opinion???? so for you to not have trouble diss my post i will say that ps3 is going to have 10% and wii will have 50% yesterday... and tomorrow? every thing points to 65% right out of the box!



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