By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - Predict the percent (%) of market share for the Wii, PS3, 360 by gen's end

Wii - 80%
PS3 - 12%
Xbox 360 - 8%



Satan said:

"You are for ever angry, all you care about is intelligence, but I repeat again that I would give away all this superstellar life, all the ranks and honours, simply to be transformed into the soul of a merchant's wife weighing eighteen stone and set candles at God's shrine."

Around the Network

I think everyone might be going a tad high on wii sales, but hey i cant predict the future....................or can i O.o



                 With regard to Call of Duty 4 having an ultra short single player campaign, I guess it may well have been due to the size limitations of DVD on the XBox 360, one of various limitations multi-platform game designers will have to take into consideration-Mike B   

Proud supporter of all 3 console companys

Proud owner of 360wii and DS/psp              

Game trailers-Halo 3 only dissapointed the people who wanted to be dissapointed.

Bet with Harvey Birdman that Lost Odyssey will sell more then Blue dragon did.
mitsuhide said:
Wow all assumptions from people i have played AC,WiiSports,Pikmin,MP,WarioWare,DonkeyKong,Luigi'sMansion. Pikmin=Pokemon as in you collect fight and grow.

If your talking new IP's Rol then Sony has Warhawk,GodOfWar,LittleBigPlanet,Motorstorm,Resistance, HeavenlySword,LAIR,Killzone,InFamous,EightDays,HeavyRain,Uncharted,Folklore and all of them except GodOfWar are this year and next.

oh sure just include a whole lot of third and second party franchises and claim them as first party. But don't hold Nintendo to the same standard.

Everyone can make a company look better if you rig the statistics 

 



Help! I'm stuck in a forum signature!

URNotE said:
Cadence said:
jstam said:
wow you guys are all morons, i remember when these forums weren't full of idiots



Like you? Back then the forums were more of a flamefest with all the angry fanboys flying around.

End marketshare (prediction):

Wii - 55%

PS3 - 27%

X360 - 18%

 

Most AAA games don't move many systems unless they're a well established IP. I don't see many popular franchises being released for the PS3 other than MGS4, FFXIII, and GTAIV, and only two of those significantly boost hardware sales. MGS is good, but based on the charts and user base for the PS3, I highly doubt it will sell any hardware.

The only popular thing I see for the 360 is Halo. Mostly everything else is fresh, with a few exceptions that will help sales, but not enough to give it a good portion of marketshare.

Based on the sales of Wii Sports and Wii Play, I have no doubt that Wii Fit will move some systems, perhaps not enough to make a significant difference, but it should sell well. Nintendo has a lot of things going for them right now, and if they keep up with the cheap cash-in games that are guaranteed to lure people in, I don't think sales will stop anytime soon.

This is, of course, entirely a prediction and most likely very opinionated.

 


 

for the ps3 silent hill V will move hardware resident evil 4 will move hardware,GTA4 FFXIII MGS4 they all will move hardware for ps3

The question is, will they move enough hardware to get the PS3 on top? I highly doubt it, since Nintendo's first party lineup is equal to, if not better, in terms of moving hardware. Add the fact that the Wii is currently much more popular than the PS3, and you've got yourself quite a situation.



Wii:~58
360:~29
PS3:~13

My numbers looked like this

Wii:100million. Will reach this in 70months (about 6 years), but as most consoles increase sales rate as they progress (read:raise exponetially) it should make this sooner. But, this is just a guess

360:10million in 18months. For this one, I kind of guessed. Sorry. Since the Wii will supress the market, it will drop in sales. So, as time goes on, it will juast continue to sell at a steady pase

PS3:I don't see Sony getting the boost they need. When the PS3 "might" sell units, it will be to late, and the market will be surpressed. So, they will sell about the same rate as the cube.

Ok, some of your guy's PS3 % is too high. Lets be resonable here. It has 16% right now. Please tell me how it beats the 360, and or even gets to 50?



Around the Network

You guys have my congratulations. I have never ....ever...seen a thread go so far off topic so quickly. That was truly truly impressive. The arguments don't even matter, you guys are truly magnificent.

Bravo...Bravo!!

And the thread is even somewhat back on topic now...its sort of like the boat ride in the original Willy Wonka movie...everything is normal..and then it builds up to super crazy...BAM...normal again.

Back on topic:

@mitsuhide

Ok when you posted this earlier....

Well i have 2 predictions:
January 1st 2012(i predict the end of the gen as Wii2/PS4/Xbox3 will release in November 2011.(rough %'s).
PS3:70million-40%
Wii:65million-38%
X360:25million-22%

End of gen(when ALL consoles stop selling):
PS3:80million-45%
Wii:65million-35%
X360:25million-20%

Were you aware that you were basically saying that between 2012 and whenever all consoles stop selling that the Wii and 360 will sell 0 consoles while the PS3 manages to sell 10 milion? I just don't see how that is even remotely possible.

Also, for predictions: just because the lowest numbers for all consoles doesn't add up to 100% doesn't mean its wrong. Its just saying if one sells less they think another will sell more.

@montanahatchet

"1. Why couldn't it? It's selling at almost the exact same rate as the PS2. "

In responce to this quote from page 1, I would say that it probably has something to do with fact that the first part of the PS2's life was only japanese sales. This is not the case for the PS3. In fact if you want a fair comparison of the first part of the chart you can try this one.

This chart shows that we only recently crossed over into the equivalent period when the PS2 was actually selling in all regions.

 



To Each Man, Responsibility

I predict:

Wii: 60%-70%
PS3: 15%-25%
360: 15%-20%
Estimated home console market: 200-250 million

For historical reference:
PS2: 68.00% (117.89)
XBX: 14.28% (24.76)
GC: 12.45% (21.59)
DC: 05.27% (9.13)
Total home console market: 173.37 million (prob. 180-185 eventual)



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Some of these predictions are hilarious. I saw a few people with the 360 hovering around 10%... Exactly how many Wiis do you expect Nintendo to sell? 200 million? Because that's what it would take to knock the 360 percentage down that low... It's virtually guaranteed 15 million and will probably end life around 20-25m at the very least.

To a lesser extent, the same applies to the PS3. I don't see it selling less than 15m at the very least by end life.


With that said, I'd rather let Stevie Wonder shoot an apple off my head from 10 yards than try to predict how this all will play out through 2011 and beyond.



Or check out my new webcomic: http://selfcentent.com/

rocketpig said:
Some of these predictions are hilarious. I saw a few people with the 360 hovering around 10%... Exactly how many Wiis do you expect Nintendo to sell? 200 million? Because that's what it would take to knock the 360 percentage down that low... It's virtually guaranteed 15 million and will probably end life around 20-25m at the very least.

To a lesser extent, the same applies to the PS3. I don't see it selling less than 15m at the very least by end life.

Check your math. The Wii doesn't have to sell nine times as much as the 360 for 360 to get 10% market share, because there's a THIRD SYSTEM ON THE MARKET.  If, say, Wii gets 130m, PS3 gets 50m, and 360 gets 20m (a very unlikely scenario but not a ridiculous one) then the 360 would have exactly 10%.

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Final-Fan said:
rocketpig said:
Some of these predictions are hilarious. I saw a few people with the 360 hovering around 10%... Exactly how many Wiis do you expect Nintendo to sell? 200 million? Because that's what it would take to knock the 360 percentage down that low... It's virtually guaranteed 15 million and will probably end life around 20-25m at the very least.

To a lesser extent, the same applies to the PS3. I don't see it selling less than 15m at the very least by end life.

Check your math.  The Wii doesn't have to sell 9x 360 for 360 to get 10% market share, because there's a THIRD SYSTEM ON THE MARKET.  If, say, Wii gets 130m, PS3 gets 50m, and 360 gets 20m (a very unlikely scenario but not a ridiculous one) then the 360 would have exactly 10%. 

Yes, I realize that. The problem is that there are predictions in this thread that look similar to this:

Wii - 80%

360 - 10%

PS3 - 10%

That's just rabid fanboyism.




Or check out my new webcomic: http://selfcentent.com/