Damn... 30 million is guaranteed

Wii play numbers (over time) are better or worse than MK?

Holy moly... when alligned, by the time MKWii had 21 million, Wii Play was only around 15... O_o

^30M confirmed then.

Yeah but MKWii doesn't have LAN play where Double Dash did. Even though it wasn't that good because you couldn't choose your character they shouldn't have remove that feature. They could have kept it and made it better. Actually come to think of it I don't think any Wii games have LAN play.

@ topic of 30m - I posted this on the games wall, then found this thread. I added some more information too.

It might squeak up to 30m but it would be really tough. I'm guessing around 5m this year (1m already reached in 3 months compared to 1.6m in 3 months) which would put it around 25m units. Even if it continues to sell for 2 more years I doubt it will hit 30m as I'd expect something like 2.5m then 750k. That would leave it short of the mark with a total of around 29m. If it continued to sell any later than that I would expect a really fast drop off due to the new generation starting in 2012 and a new Mario Kart being released with the new system.

The interactivity has allowed it to have significantly higher sales compared to its predecessors (apart from Mario Kart DS which also had good sales).

I think you're underestimating the sales of next year, and at least the one after that.

There are plenty of DS games that have managed to stick to selling 2-3 million a year for many years. Mario Kart Wii has been selling better than any of those; so why shouldn't it too be able to stay at 2-3 million/year?

You can't really take into account Mario Kart Wii having a larger dropoff, seeing as it saw the largest single-platform first 52 weeks ever. 

So MKWii will eclipse Wii Play sales when all is said and done? Will MKWii be the biggest game on the Wii (besides Wii Sports, of course)?

^Pretty much. But then look at the aligned launches of MKWii and NSMB Wii.

well, I feel like I'm spot on for this year with the 5m. I could be a tiny bit low with 2.5m but I feel that is justified. Those DS games that sold 3m last year had 30m DS system sales to go with them. The Wii probably won't even sell 20m two years from now. My dropoff to 750k is really based off the next system releasing in 2012 and Nintendo releasing a new Mario Kart as a launch title since Mario Kart on Wii and DS have done so well.