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Forums - Gaming - NPD: 29% of Wii gamers play online. Higher percentage than the PS3.

Tyrannical on 11 March 2009

PC website flash games shouldn't count as online, unless you are actually playing/interacting with someone else. Though I suppose with WoW the numbers would be huge anyways on the PC side.



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Epoch on 11 March 2009
Gnizmo said:

Epoch said:

Fair enough.  But I know statistics fairly well, and did quite well in Biostatistical Analysis at my University (Canadian).  This data set is biased, probably because of the fact that it came from an online survey.

If you can't follow my reasoning then don't worry about it.  Just don't read too much into the percentages that are given.  They are more a representation of total marketshare than of "this % of wii/360/ps3 owners game online".

This survey ascribes to the "If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit" motto.

 Actually i understand statistics quite well. Math minor from the University of New Orleans. No heavy focus on statistics so I am at a loss to explain all of this, but I can follow quite well normally. The problem is we have fuck all for data here. The Arstechnica report was written by someone who doesn't understand statistics and so is untrustworthy as far as original data is concerned (their usage of the term "statistically significant" is a big red flag). The press release from NPD proper has even less information and is even more confusing when you try to decifer it. I'd give an arm and a leg to see what the raw data on this is. Not only to see where the PS2 and Xbox figur into it all (curiosity) but also see what the numbers actually say.

 And yes, it is unlikely that this generalizes perfectly to the general population of the US or the world. They key factor though is if it generalizes to the general gamer population. I can't find where it says this is from an online survey, but I find it relatively suspect. The original pol included 20,000 people and only a fraction of them actually played online.

I would also be interested to see the raw data.  As it stands, from their numbers, there are too many gamers for their sample size.  Probably because of the source (online survey) of their data set.  They state this in their methodology section at the bottom of their official release, which you posted.

The problem arises when the data set becomes too skewed, and is no longer usable as a reference.  Scientific journals and Non-Fiction publishers have a statistical threshold.  If the data doesn't hold up to this standard, it is considered useless.  This data would fall into that category.  It is far too skewed.

I think thats why the report is so vague, because you can't really get alot out of the data they have.  They didn't even tell us what % of the 20,000 own each console.  It is suspect at best.

However, I do agree that it may be slightly representative of gamers in general.  Enough at least to say that there are quite a few Wii gamers going online.  And far more 360 players than seems possible.

 



Gnizmo on 11 March 2009

Epoch said:

I would also be interested to see the raw data.  As it stands, from their numbers, there are too many gamers for their sample size.  Probably because of the source (online survey) of their data set.  They state this in their methodology section at the bottom of their official release, which you posted.

The problem arises when the data set becomes too skewed, and is no longer usable as a reference.  Scientific journals and Non-Fiction publishers have a statistical threshold.  If the data doesn't hold up to this standard, it is considered useless.  This data would fall into that category.  It is far too skewed.

I think thats why the report is so vague, because you can't really get alot out of the data they have.  They didn't even tell us what % of the 20,000 own each console.  It is suspect at best.

However, I do agree that it may be slightly representative of gamers in general.  Enough at least to say that there are quite a few Wii gamers going online.  And far more 360 players than seems possible.

 

 Oh I see what you are talking about. Calling it an "online survey" is a bit dishonest then. Seems more like they have a target number of people that they use to try and capture a representative sample of what they are looking for and just happen to use the internet as a means of communication.

 I agree that there are a lot of reasons to question this data. The problem is we don't actually have it to look at. We have press releases and some clarifications, but nothing on a lot of it. The Gamespot article clearly says it is targetted strictly at the gaming population of the US so this shouldn't have to try and generalize to the normal population. Without a look at the study proper (which I don;t think either of us will get) it is hard to completely defend or dis-credit this study sadly.



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Kantor on 11 March 2009

Considering that the PS3 has some 17.1% marketshare in the USA, not bad.



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MaxwellGT2000 on 11 March 2009
Epoch said:
MaxwellGT2000 said:
Gnizmo said:
Its fairly interesting over all. I am surprised so many online gamers actually use the Wii for online gaming. My guess is that Smash Bros and Mario Kart pull in a lot of players and up the percentage. What seems really strange to me is they have found such a low percentage of peopel who play online without owning a console. I am curious as to wht the PS2, PSP, and DS numbers were. For those curious I will link the actuall press release. Hopefully it will stop people from making ridiculous claims about how this report can't be right.

http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_090310a.html

 

Yes read the real report, of the people polled that actually play online, 87% are playing on PC, 50% are playing on 360, 29% are on Wii, and 20% are on PS3.

These people overlap, so someone could play PC, PS3, 360, and Wii online, while others could only play consoles or a console online, as 13% don't use PC at all online for games just consoles.

A chart to better understand the data.

Note the 20% came from the OP which I cannot find any other data for the PS3 percent as even the press release doesn't have it. Gamespot also has 20% listed as they also were given the update from NPD this makes their info quite possibly the truth.

 

Right.  That's exactly what the report says, and not much else.  Extrapolate what you can from it.  The problem arises when people start assuming that this means that "29% of wii owners play online". 

I'm still certain that this data set is biased and unrepresentative of the general public though.

 

Again 20,000 people is a fairly large sample... and can represent general public well cause NPD has a diverse selection of people they poll... and in stats if you have a fair representation of the groups you're wanting to poll you can create fairly accurate data... the number of people in the poll was 20k which is a fairly large number for a study... and NPD isn't some amateur group of statisticians.



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Lafiel on 11 March 2009

people try to understand here what they want to understand, although the survey itself is pretty clear in my opinion



Epoch on 11 March 2009
Gnizmo said:

Epoch said:

I would also be interested to see the raw data.  As it stands, from their numbers, there are too many gamers for their sample size.  Probably because of the source (online survey) of their data set.  They state this in their methodology section at the bottom of their official release, which you posted.

The problem arises when the data set becomes too skewed, and is no longer usable as a reference.  Scientific journals and Non-Fiction publishers have a statistical threshold.  If the data doesn't hold up to this standard, it is considered useless.  This data would fall into that category.  It is far too skewed.

I think thats why the report is so vague, because you can't really get alot out of the data they have.  They didn't even tell us what % of the 20,000 own each console.  It is suspect at best.

However, I do agree that it may be slightly representative of gamers in general.  Enough at least to say that there are quite a few Wii gamers going online.  And far more 360 players than seems possible.

 

 Oh I see what you are talking about. Calling it an "online survey" is a bit dishonest then. Seems more like they have a target number of people that they use to try and capture a representative sample of what they are looking for and just happen to use the internet as a means of communication.

 I agree that there are a lot of reasons to question this data. The problem is we don't actually have it to look at. We have press releases and some clarifications, but nothing on a lot of it. The Gamespot article clearly says it is targetted strictly at the gaming population of the US so this shouldn't have to try and generalize to the normal population. Without a look at the study proper (which I don;t think either of us will get) it is hard to completely defend or dis-credit this study sadly.

Haha, I agree that it is a poor choice of term for their method of data gathering, but it's a direct quote from them.

I also agree that it is hard/impossible to discredit anything without a look at the data.  Its just that at first glance some of the numbers didn't add up, and upon further investigation, more didn't add up, lol. 

I think people were trying to make more of this study than it actually says (which isn't alot), and it offended my sense of statistical reasoning.

Maybe they will release more info as they compile it.  Seems unlikely though.



Epoch on 11 March 2009
MaxwellGT2000 said:
Epoch said:

 

Right.  That's exactly what the report says, and not much else.  Extrapolate what you can from it.  The problem arises when people start assuming that this means that "29% of wii owners play online". 

I'm still certain that this data set is biased and unrepresentative of the general public though.

 

Again 20,000 people is a fairly large sample... and can represent general public well cause NPD has a diverse selection of people they poll... and in stats if you have a fair representation of the groups you're wanting to poll you can create fairly accurate data... the number of people in the poll was 20k which is a fairly large number for a study... and NPD isn't some amateur group of statisticians.

Damn, just about to go to bed.

But you're right.  Mostly.  What you say is true, and if the data holds up to that, then you have a statistically relevant study.  The problem here is that this site tracks the sales of video games systems, so we know some variables that this data should be able to come close to matching with, if the study is to be a reasonable representation of the general public. 

So a quick look at one point of data they have given us: 50% of online gamers play the Xbox360

20,000 * .25 = 5,000 respondents who game online (from OP and official release)

2,500 (minimum owners of Xbox360 among data set) / 20,000 (total polled) = 12.5 % of their data population owns an X360.

Extrapolate that to whole population of U.S. = 300 Mill * .125 = 37.5 Million.  As we know thats much too high.  That puts it way outside the possibility of being statistically relevant to the normal population of U.S.

However, Gnizmo pointed out that the study is not intended to be applied to anything but the gaming population, so the point is moot anyways.  And the study means even less, sadly.



Gnizmo on 11 March 2009

Epoch said:

Haha, I agree that it is a poor choice of term for their method of data gathering, but it's a direct quote from them.

I also agree that it is hard/impossible to discredit anything without a look at the data.  Its just that at first glance some of the numbers didn't add up, and upon further investigation, more didn't add up, lol.

I think people were trying to make more of this study than it actually says (which isn't alot), and it offended my sense of statistical reasoning.

Maybe they will release more info as they compile it.  Seems unlikely though.

 Hardly a direct quote. They use the term online consumer panel. This has very different implications than online survey. This is irrelevant though as I just realized your arguement doesn't hold up.

 You keep working under the assumption that the numbers provided in the OP are accurate. They have absolutely no basis in reality though. First off, NPD says that 56% of all gamers play online. This is a far cry from the 25% quoted in the original article. This would mean of the 20,000 people who played some game that around 11,000 of them played online. At the surface level this would seemingly back your arguement, but there is one other missing variable.

 The percentages they give for the online gaming is irrelevant. They are not saying 50% of people who game online are gaming on the 360. They are saying 50% of the people who game online on a console game on the 360. The raw number of people gaming on a console, however, is never given. All we really know is that last gen systems seemed to completely die off in terms of online gaming in the last year (PS2 and Xbox were seemingly ahead of the PS3 in the last survey). Without having the raw data to work with we cannot determine whether or not that would be representative of the population as a whole, or of just the gaming population.



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Epoch on 11 March 2009
Gnizmo said:

Epoch said:

Haha, I agree that it is a poor choice of term for their method of data gathering, but it's a direct quote from them.

I also agree that it is hard/impossible to discredit anything without a look at the data.  Its just that at first glance some of the numbers didn't add up, and upon further investigation, more didn't add up, lol.

I think people were trying to make more of this study than it actually says (which isn't alot), and it offended my sense of statistical reasoning.

Maybe they will release more info as they compile it.  Seems unlikely though.

 Hardly a direct quote. They use the term online consumer panel. This has very different implications than online survey. This is irrelevant though as I just realized your arguement doesn't hold up.

 You keep working under the assumption that the numbers provided in the OP are accurate. They have absolutely no basis in reality though. First off, NPD says that 56% of all gamers play online. This is a far cry from the 25% quoted in the original article. This would mean of the 20,000 people who played some game that around 11,000 of them played online. At the surface level this would seemingly back your arguement, but there is one other missing variable.

 The percentages they give for the online gaming is irrelevant. They are not saying 50% of people who game online are gaming on the 360. They are saying 50% of the people who game online on a console game on the 360. The raw number of people gaming on a console, however, is never given. All we really know is that last gen systems seemed to completely die off in terms of online gaming in the last year (PS2 and Xbox were seemingly ahead of the PS3 in the last survey). Without having the raw data to work with we cannot determine whether or not that would be representative of the population as a whole, or of just the gaming population.

"The report is based on online survey responses from just over 20,000 members of NPD’s online consumer panel ages 2 and older"

From the Methodology section of their press release.

So now we're assuming that the 20,000 people polled all play electronic games?  I was assuming it was general population.  That would be a major difference. 

I used the x360 to work with because it is one of the few pieces of actual data given in the original statement.  However, as you say, without knowing how many people actually responded, we can't determine much.

At least we seem to agree that the press release doesn't seem to be saying a whole lot, other than that online gaming is up.